Palin and Romney know the same thing: Few are paying attention + Perry Should Enjoy it Now

pollinsider ^ | Sunday August 14, 2011

[Bigtigermike]

Believe it or not, in their quests (or probable quest in Palin’s case) for the GOP nomination both Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney are working under the same premise: No one is paying attention right now. Sure, some people are paying attention. But that “some” is probably you and me and maybe 5% of the rest of the voting population. Figure that between just 2-5 million people have watched any of the debates thus far. While Thursday night’s 5 million viewers was impressive for primary debate standards, it still represents less than 4% of the usual voter turnout. That means 96% of the 2012 voting public (among them at least 52 million McCain voters) on a Summer Thursday night, against little other programming, in the middle of a depression, during a media-hyped GOP race, with a chance to pick a candidate to throw out the Golfing Fundraiser-in-Chief, couldn’t even be bothered to tune in.

Palin knows this. And Romney knows this. And this explains each of their strategies.

For Palin, she expressly states there is no need to be in this early because, tada, most people are not paying attention. Sure, the media obsesses over “announcements” because it’s the media and they probably want as much advance notice as possible to find more junk to throw her way. Plus, they need stuff to talk about, and who better than Palin to help ratings for dying media types? And yes, her supporters can’t wait because they just want to know, but they also make up part of the well-informed 5% of the population. (Another 15% are probably decently informed and the other 80% are clueless). Hence, the 80-20 rule I discuss frequently.

While most normal candidates need to enter early to build name recognition, gather donors, and lock down big campaign strategists, Palin would obviously not run a campaign that is dependent on multiple high-paid strategists who are more interested in their next paycheck than being devoted to the candidate they are working for (see: Newt Gingrich). Palin’s campaign would be heavy on the grassroots, and she easily has the largest volunteer grassroots organization and a highly active base nationwide who are working on her behalf (and have been for sometime).

For Romney, he also knows that people are not paying attention. This is why he has chosen his battles carefully and has remained completely out of sight. Other than two debates, Romney has been impossible to find. But guess who remains at or near the top of every poll, just as he has for over a year? And no one can find him!

Why, because if 96% of the population isn’t looking anyway, how would they know he is missing? Romney’s early announcement was made, not to start campaigning, but to start fundraising, gaining big donors, and locking down support from the GOP establishment. He knows that few voters are paying attention and has said as much. Why would he risk going to town-hall after town-hall at this stage, knowing there will be little upside but many the opportunity for blundering?

As for the rest of the candidates, you can see two things. First, that announcing (early, later, or in between) has done little for any of their campaigns in the long run. Cain announced early, but after an initial hit and rise in interest, Cain has dropped from the 10%-ish range to the 5%-and under group. Pawlenty, who followed the Media-approved early announcement strategy fell from a 7% average to a 2% average (and is now gone). Gingrich rocked the low-mid teens for a while, but now rocks 5% too, on a good polling day. Bachmann was once a 6-8% kinda gal, then popped into the mid teens, and has returned to being a 6-8% kinda gal (7%, 7%, 8% in 3 recent major polls).You could lump in Trump and probably Perry (the new new flavor of the month) in this group as well. But just because all of my predictions on Bachmann, Huntsman, Cain, Gingrich, and Trump have come to fruition, it doesn’t mean I will be right about Perry (but I will be).

All of these candidates announced at different times. All of them had a short time frame when they were the “it” candidate. The Media Flavor of the Month. Right now, Perry is the flavor of the month. Why? Because 96% of the population is not paying attention. Everything they know comes from passing, a brief blip on the tv or radio, or by word of mouth. And these are the people who are polled, and this is why the race changes so dramatically so often, with so many new and frequent “frontrunners” challenging Romney.

As Palin has said, most people are not interested in the primary process right now, most people are worried about their families, their jobs, their kids, and what to make for dinner tonight. She is right. Being the most politically interested of my family and friends, I nevertheless have many friends and family who fall into the 96% group. These are people who know and follow politics to a degree, but are not uber-involved in the process and what is going on.I know this because I talk to people all the time, people ho are somewhat involved in politics, vote in every primary, and talk politics with me regularly. How many heard of “The Undefeated”? None. Why? Because knowing it existed would have required a deeper following of the primary process. I also know this because I am the one who gets the calls, texts, and emails… “what do you think about Perry” … “who is this Bachmann” … “I like this Cain guy, what do you think?” All of these messages come at the time the candidate is the “flavor of the month.” For the record, the only texts I get about Huntsman are: “whose the squeeky voiced, uber-dork, and did he get lost on his way to file for the democrat primary.” I jest, I jest! It’s usually just, “Who’s the uber-dork?”

So, whats my point? My point is, it doesn’t matter when candidates announce. It seems that everyone is spacing out their announcement for maximum flavor-of-the-monthage. The media reports about them and why they are “it,” it filters out to the masses in bits and pieces, and then they get a bump in polls until the media moves on. I’m quite certain the media could invent a candidate named “Joe barbery” and talk about him, without showing pictures, speeches, or saying where he is from, but by hyping him as “Romney’s new challenger” he could probably break double digits for a month or two. Making it stick is what counts. To date, only two candidates have done that. Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney are the only 2 candidates to have average above 10% in polling for every month over the last 12 months. Cain and Bachmann had a 2 month run of double-digits, while Trump hits double digits and started tanking fast before dropping out altogether.

Perry has got a little over a month on his belt in the double digits, but I know very few people who know anything about him other than “he’s from Texas and Texas leads the nation in economic growth.” That’s about all anyone knows about Rick Perry that I have spoken too.

But hey, the media keeps talking about him, so there must be something there! And they keep talking about how conservative he is, only he is more of a Bush-conservative. Which is to say he is somewhere between the conservatism of Bush 41′s “no new taxes” and Bush 43′s big government spending binge, and illegal-immigration-loving ridiculousness. The biggest problem with the “flavor-of-the-month” candidates is that people choose the flavor of the month, and just assume they are everything they want them to be. But then Cain comes out and is incapable of answering any questions requiring much knowledge, even though we know he is a “problem-solver.” And Bachmann come off as a little bit of crazy and self-obsessed with over-exaggeration tendencies, and her husband has that weirdish-wimp vibe. Then it turns out Trump is a socialized-healthcare, left-wing supporting, pro-abortion, global warming lunatic.

It’s possible Perry “surges” this week in polls since he is announcing, and might even start overtaking Romney. Welcome to the club. But can you stay there? With Palin lurking in the background, I’d say good luck, and you have a lot of hype and expectations to maintain. What happens when the media decides they don’t like you anymore?

The candidate that the media builds, is also the candidate the media destroys. This week they talk about how conservative you are and how much the conservative base will love you. Next week, they “discover” your a big ole RINO, alert the same people they got to like you, and let the fireworks start. But hey, enjoy it while it lasts.

[mo]

Perry will look like Dubya when the Democrat-MSM media machine is done with him....by June 2012

[section9]

Best damn column I’ve seen in some time.

Best,

Chris

[RonDog]

It is good to see that YOUR spirits were lifted as much by this positive article as MINE were. ;o)

I respect your opinion, and lately, your posts on C4P have been articulating the unease that I, too, have been feeling -- about the dangers that Governor Palin has perhaps been waiting TOO LONG to get in.

As this author notes, however, all may yet be well.

Governor Palin is leading **her** forces in the same strategic way that WILLIAM WALLACE led **his** small, but dedicated, army -- in the very risky (but ultimately, very successful) "delayed" defense against the superior forces of the English "heavy horse" attackers.

Hold... Hold... Hold...
NOW!

He, too, goaded a prideful superior force into (unwisely, as it happened) committing themselves fully against him, so that he could use their strengths against them -- when the timing was EXACTLY right for victory.