Replies

“It is a logical fallacy to attribute past trends to future results with something like elections. “

First off, any speculation at this point is merely pre game chatter. Means nothing, affects nothing. I get it. However, it’s not unreasonable to project 12 based on 08. Many of the same players are in the game. Having said that, in 07 who really believed Obama would win in 08?

I am not an election expert, but it seems to me, the GOP puts money behind certain candidates, and twists arms. It seems to me, the GOP can alter the course of events in terms of who gets nominated.

yes, but the difference is that the dynamics of 2011-2012 election is the grassroots movement compared to other times, nobody is going to get wide support if they don’t tap into the Tea Party/grassroots in the Primary season or the general election and the movement is an anti-Establishment movement as well which spells trouble for the likes of Mitt....if we choose another moderate then we will lose in 2012 because the base will not come out in droves for the nominee no matter how much they dislike Obama.

It seems to me, the GOP can alter the course of events in terms of who gets nominated.

The GOP can certainly influence events. This field is a lot different than 2008. One could easily argue that Huckabee is as much the next in line as Romney. Huck also has more upside potential, and has been pretty careful not to make the wrong enemies.

There are a number of establishment candidates who can already dig into the Romney camp (Daniels, Pawlenty). Even if Romney wins NH, that could easily be painted as a home state win, as Clinton successfully did with Tsongas in 1992.

The lesson of 2008 is that down is not necessarily out. McCain played zombie and marched to the convention. 2012 will be a MUCH stronger field, and the dynamics will not play out the same way. You are right, that an establishment anointed candidate is not to be taken lightly.

Long term, our mission is to truly take out the crony elements of the GOP, so we won't have to worry about this in the same way in the future.