Replies

They think she has a good shot of winning the primary but not winning the general.

I’m not convinced she can win the general. Even if she were to win over the Independents and enough conservative Democrats you have the “moderate” Republican establishment that isn’t opposed to throwing an election and voting for the Democrat. Conservatives protest Republican candidates too, but they prefer to stay at home. The liberal Republicans go it a step further and endorse the other side.

I can’t say as I care about their concern she’d lose the general. They nominated McCain despite every consideration that was a bad idea so they aren’t saints at considering the bigger picture either.

My only concern is that if she doen’t win the primary or even the general how that would affect influence she currently has and is using in primary challenges. If a loss weakens her ability to help on the ground I’d rather she didn’t run. Otherwise sure...go ahead. I’m not pledging support to anyone right now but I don’t see how it benefits anyone to run from a challenge. If they can’t beat her in a primary they are a weak candidate.

I’m not convinced she can win the general.

The general election is going to be about Barack Obama IMO. Voters simply need to be comfortable enough with the GOP candidate to make the decision to fire him (assuming things are still rotten in 2012). If the economy has a reasonable recovery, Obama wins again.

No conservative Republican is going to be judged accurately until they go face to face with Obama. Reagan had the same problem against Carter. It wasn't until 8 days before the 1980 election when they had the debate that the electorate shifted to Reagan.

Given the mood among conservatives, nominating another statist Republican will drive millions of conservatives to the sidelines, Obama or no Obama. I agree with you on that.

I hear you oin your concerns about sidelining Palin. I trust her to make the right decision on that. She's not consumed with being president. She says that and I believe her.