Cook going the other way in late July: # NEW JERSEY | District 6: Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat (7/22/10)
RCP, EP, Sabato, CQP, Rothenberg : Safe Dem
It will be interesting to see if there is any movement on the "Expert" front based on the polling. This race is on our Tier 2 list and it would take two Leans D to move it to the Master List.
But in NJ-6, we have a much better data point. In 2009, one year after Obama won this district, Chris Christie trounced Jon Corzine in the Governor's race by 15.5% But this data was harder to find, since the Governor's race is reported by township, not by CD. Somebody has to do the work to tease out the numbers by Congressional District.
Fortunately, I have done that work. Christie won this district, and won it big. Folks Down the Shore are ready for the Small Government/Low Tax message.