No.
This is before Sestak becomes the nominee. I have lived in Pa for over 20 years now. The voters here are clueless.
Sestak will have much less money than Specter and he has a much more liberal record. Sestak will siphon more DSCC resources than Specter.
Specter also has a stronger infrastructure and organization across PA.
My own sense is that Toomey would have an easier time defeating Sestak than Specter.
Specter’s defeat might also lead to further House Dem retirements.