Posted on 11/26/2009 9:16:57 AM PST by wardaddy
the fellow that sent this to me is a 70 year old man who has been in lending since after he was a Marine major in Vietnam. He is extremely conservative about everything but young women...lol
I trust him on it but can’t verify anything except the source he got it from..beyond that I don’t know.
happy thanksgiving to ya’ll
The president, you will note, DOES have the power to suspend regulations...but the Kenyan adores regulations, the more the merrier, and won't even consider realxing them.
bttt
bm
“What sucks now is that the bailout and TARP loans have just been used to create solvency at taxpayer expense and done zippo to increase credit.”
Leaving you and I with the tax bill, while the REAL value of our assets drop. Great deal, eh?
I agree with about 90% of all of it.
Well, accepting this on face value, these points make sense. And it’s not pretty.
Last week I was at a brand new shopping center and most of the storefronts had been empty since the center was built.
All those empty spaces -— we started talking about the kinds of things people could do with them if only the rent were low enough to make a tiny business viable.
For example, I know someone who would love a small shop in which to give music lessons. Her home, both in size and situation, is limiting the number of students she can have, and she needs storage space for stuff related to her lessons, and she’d like a small area when 10-12 people could be seated for recitals and so on. With enough space, she could also take on another music teacher as a partner, and they could double the number of students.
This would be a very small business, requiring no changes to the space at all, but it would bring some life, foot traffic and possibly even a little spending at nearby restaurants to the center. Which right now is earning exactly ZERO on that space.
But then we realized the owner probably has very little room to adjust the price of rents, either because of the terms of his loan or simple government regulations.
We also said this is why in the Great Depression an unemployed business manager and his wife could make candy in the kitchen and sell it on street corners, or sell pencils or apples. Not today! The government regulations involved in pursuing the tiniest commercial enterprise are almost completely prohibitive.
Does the deferral of the foreclosure bubble until at least 2013 mean that housing values will crash AGAIN at that point?
If so, I’m wondering what homeowners need to factor in to their financial planning for the next decade or so.
Yep. Also how does it change your homeownership profile?
I’m not suggesting “rational default” (although it may come to a point where that’s widespread). But sometimes I try to sort through if it would be better -— financially -— to take a loss on my home now, get out from under the mortgage, and get a little more flexibility into our housing budget (such as by renting).
A couple of other demographic notes that never seem to be accounted for in looking at how the nation's housing supply is going to trend in the next years: 1. That big population bubble, aka the Baby Boomers, is going to burst over the next 10 years or so. As the boomers start dying off, many will leave homes that, quite literally, no one wants. The family will not want them and they will not be able to be sold. This adds millions more units to supply over the next decade or so, not to mention millions of tons of used stuff (furniture, artwork, dishes, cars, etc.) out there to be disposed of somehow. 2. Young people starting out, and other adult children, are not going to have the financial means (jobs) to start their own households. There will be many more multigenerational households (which is not a bad thing, but which does not sop up housing supply like individual homes does). 3. The recent trend toward having more than one home also will end except for the quite rich. Snowbird homes in Florida, forgetaboutit. Beach houses, no. 4. As the next generation looks at housing, fewer are getting married and actually forming families. Economic hard times will decrease the number of children people have. Single parents, for example, will share McMansion rentals instead of having their own home. 5. Without plentiful jobs, immigration (especially illegal) will slow down. Again, fewer people to use housing inventory.
If the government is determined to spend billions in bailouts, take that money and instead use it to "fund" massive across-the-board tax cuts.
Instead of the piddling stuff it's doing, the government could completely reset housing values, in a manner of speaking, in a fair and relatively safe way by quadrupling the home mortgage interest deduction for every homeowner who is current on his mortgage for that tax year.
This would immediately, effectively and proportionately reduce the homeowner's monthly cost of housing without an individualized loan modification blah blah blah. And it would not reduce principal on paper (for the banks).
Sure, that would be "expensive." But it would work, so at least the billions the guvmint spent would not be down the drain.
Whoa. Sorry for the formatting fart. Here’s what I said in non-brick format:
A couple of other demographic notes that never seem to be accounted for in looking at how the nation’s housing supply is going to trend in the next years:
1. That big population bubble, aka the Baby Boomers, is going to burst over the next 10 years or so. As the boomers start dying off, many will leave homes that, quite literally, no one wants. The family will not want them and they will not be able to be sold. This adds millions more units to supply over the next decade or so, not to mention millions of tons of used stuff (furniture, artwork, dishes, cars, etc.) out there to be disposed of somehow.
2. Young people starting out, and other adult children, are not going to have the financial means (jobs) to start their own households. There will be many more multigenerational households (which is not a bad thing, but which does not sop up housing supply like individual homes does).
3. The recent trend toward having more than one home also will end except for the quite rich. Snowbird homes in Florida, forgetaboutit. Beach houses, no.
4. As the next generation looks at housing, fewer are getting married and actually forming families. Economic hard times will decrease the number of children people have. Single parents, for example, will share McMansion rentals instead of having their own home.
5. Without plentiful jobs, immigration (especially illegal) will slow down. Again, fewer people to use housing inventory
It could happen immediately. No one would need to administer the program, or apply for it or go through an approval process. The minimum requirement might be to file with your taxes some kind of defined proof that you are current on your mortgage.
what i got was that we are just seeing band aid bumps...not any real rebounds yet
and that cash is just sitting it out
and that the Obama administration is allowing financial institutions witchcraft techniques to reamortize poorly performing debt which is often worth less than the loan...a disaster
I am trying to wrap my mind around what it would mean if our economy were to “collapse.” However that is defined at this point in history.
However, even if (a BIG if, in my estimation) employment goes up to "more normal" levels in 5 years or so, the impact of these years of un- and underemployment will be felt for decades. People simply will remain behind where they would have been, which has huge implications for the real economy far into the future.
That was once the the third last part of the American Dream.
IMHO, the retired boomers will pinch pennies like we've never seen....that in of itself is something economic forecasters (Wall Street) have not added to the equation, in fact the opposite has been their norm.
Inflation will come very soon because of asinine goobermint spending and we will see another 10-20% decline in discretionary spending habits of the US populace. Wages too will remain stagnant at best as I am hearing that blue collar pay has dropped.
Small town Joe Bloe Banks lends money to developers for near by city's new strip malls and condo office buildings.
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