Could a Third-Party Candidate Actually Win in 2012?

Washington's Blog ^ | 21 Aug 2009 | Washington's Blog

[BGHater]

Famed trend forecaster Gerald Calente is predicting that a third party candidate will be elected President in 2012. (If you don't know who Calente is, read the postscript below.)

Is he right?

Well, some of the most widely-read liberal writers are saying that progressives are fed up with the Democratic party, and feel that they have been tricked and ripped off by the Democratic leaders.

As Glenn Greenwald writes:

In a superb post the other day, Digby recounted what fueled the Naderite movement in 2000 and warns, presciently I think, that the willingness of Obama/Emanuel so blatantly to disappoint those to whom they promised so much (especially young and first-time voters who were most vulnerable to Obama's transformative fairy dust) will lead them either to support a third party or turn off from politics altogether:

Rahm Emanuel believes that the key to Democratic success is a coalition in which Blue Dogs and corporate lackeys mitigate progressive change on behalf of the moneyed interests which he believes the political system must serve. Regardless of his malevolent view of how the political system should work, on a political level, I think he's living in the past. . . .

But on a political level, the left has been betrayed over and over again on the things that matter to us the most. The village is pleased, I'm sure. But the Democratic party only needs to look back eight short years to see just how destructive it is to constantly tell their left flank to go fuck themselves. . . .

At the time [in 2000] nobody believed that an incumbent Vice President in a roaring economy would have a race so close that the Republicans could steal it. But we know differently now don't we? And you would think that the Democratic establishment would also know that because of that, it may not be a good idea to alienate the left to the point where they become apathetic or even well... you know. It can happen. It did happen. Why the Democrats persist in believing that it can't happen again is beyond me. . . .

Obama mobilized a whole lot of young people who have great expectations and disappointing them could lead to all sorts of unpleasant results. Success is about more than simply buying off some congressional liberals or pleasing the village. It's worth remembering that a third party run from the left is what created the conditions for eight long years of Republican governance ...

After 2000, what is it going to take for the Democrats to realize that constantly using their base as a doormat is not a good idea? It only takes a few defections or enough people staying home to make a difference. And there are people on the left who have proven they're willing to do it. The Democrats are playing with fire if they think they don't have to deliver anything at all to their liberal base --- and abandoning the public option, particularly in light of what we already know about the bailouts and the side deals, may be what breaks the bond.

It's really not too much to ask that they deliver at least one thing the left demands, it really isn't. And it's not going to take much more of this before their young base starts looking around for someone to deliver the hope and change they were promised.

On most fronts that matter -- civil liberties, national security, economic policy, servitude to corporate interests, even rising opposition to Obama's long-promised escalation of the war in Afghanistan -- that defines rather clearly what the Obama/Emanuel approach has been thus far.

What About the Right?

The Washington Examiner writes:

The fact that just doesn't register with Washington GOP establishmentarians is that the Tea Party Protests seen around the country in April were aimed as much against them as they were against the tax and spending policies of Obama and the Democratic Congress.

There are millions of libertarians and traditional conservatives (or "paleo-conservatives", in contrast to Neo-conservatives) in the U.S. who are very unhappy with the direction the Republican party has taken in recent years.

Post-Partisan Coalitions

There are many millions of liberals and conservatives who have become disgusted by their parties and have started judging candidates based upon what they are actually doing.

As just one example, there are millions of Americans who would support either Ron Paul as president and Dennis Kucinich as vice president or the other away around. Why? Both challenge the status quo, and have proposed legislation which will actually help the American people.

Conclusion

Based on the above trends, I believe that Calente could be right. A third-party candidate could win in 2012.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

You need to get over this blame thing for 2008. There is plenty of blame to go around. If you want to blame someone, how about blaming the idiots who allowed the open primaries that got McCain the nomination? How about blaming the absurd astroturf antics of a certain MA socialist ‘Republican’ candidate for keeping conservatives as divided as possible during the primaries?

Frankly, if there are people who deserve blame, it is those who have sacrificed principle for expediency. They are the reason McCain got nominated, leaving us with a choice between two unacceptable candidates. Blaming people who didn’t do the same for McCain’s loss is nothing more than an attempt to bully others into making that same sacrifice of principle. John McCain was a joke. The debates were a contest to see which one could be more of a socialist. Of course, Obama won that contest hands down. When McCain ‘suspended’ his campaign to go to Washington and shill for that sham of a bailout bill, it was obvious that there was no candidate in that race that represented conservatism or even the American people at all for that matter. While I still voted for McCain, I don’t blame anyone for not voting for McCain after that debacle and you shouldn’t either.

Work to nominate acceptable conservative candidates instead of blaming others for not toeing the RINO line. Here’s a hint: When the best argument to elect your guy is that the other guy sucks a whole lot more, you’ve made the wrong choice and you’re going to lose.

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

It is time to stop listening to those who are making a living off trying to destroy Republicans. The truth is we have MANY great conservative Republicans in congress. This is a great, solid foundation on which to build.

Please pay attention to CNBC, FOX and CSPAN to watch the work these brave people are doing. They're doing it in spite of the negativity of people like you and others here on FR who refuse to acknowledge they are doing the very work you claim you want done.

[Tanniker Smith]

Save Sarah Palin,

I'd like to save Sarah Palin, particularly if she were drowning and required mouth-to-mouth resus....
...what were we talking about again?

[Parawan]

“It’s the GOP that is the mystery.”

There is no mystery here. The GOP sold us out, in the last four years, almost as rapidly as the rats are doing it now. I doubt that they realize the Tea Parties are for them as well as Chosen ones and his worshipers.

[GLDNGUN]

The democrats will run Obama again (unless something very odd happens) and he will be looked on as more of the same. If the GOP runs a traditional candidate, he also will be seen as more of the same. That scenario would certainly create an atmosphere in which a 3rd party candidate could get a LOT of attention. Think Ross Perot in 1992. If Perot hadn't been such a flake, he could have potentially won that race.

IF one party of the other were to run a non-traditional candidate - someone who is not part of the DC establishment - someone who the average American feels they can relate with and knows will represent THEM and not special interests, then THAT candidate would stand a great chance of a landslide win.

This is why I truly believe that Sarah Palin is a woman of destiny and will be the GOP nominee in 2012 and elected President. If things continue as they are, there could not possibly be a better environment for her election. It's almost as if she was made for this moment, and this moment made for her.

She came out of "nowhere" in Alaska by tapping into what the people wanted and being one of them. All she has to do is repeat it on a national level.

There might still be a 3rd party candidate(s). In fact, I could see a 4-way race. You could have Palin as the GOP candidate, then some RINO run figuring he'll get a lot of GOP votes from people who can't bring themselves to vote for such an "extremist" like Anderson tried to pull off in 1980. It would have to be someone who can finance his own candidacy - Romney anyone? Obama will be on the dem ticket, and a democrat-lite candidate trying to win the indepedents and "moderates" of both parties could run to Obama's right. This would be another wealthy person who would be liberal on social issues, but claim to be fiscally conservative. Perhaps a Donald Trump or Bill Gates type.

[freebilly]

No....

[mel]

I wouldn’t care if they run Bugs Bunny, I will win for whoever stands the best chance of beating Zero.
I miss Bush and sad to say I even miss Clinton

[wiggen]

not if the candidate was named Hillary.

[norge]

No.

NO.

AND FOR HEAVEN’S SAKE...NOOOOO.

[webschooner]

It’s really something to behold when the moonbat Leftists are upset at the most Leftist president in the country’s history, because he’s not Leftie enuf for them.

I hope the moonbats do go off and start a turd party, but who are they gonna nominate that is to the Left of Zerobama? Will they raise Karl Marx from the grave and prop him up and run him for president? Maybe Pol Pot or Hitler?

[saluki_in_ohio]

I wouldn’t care if they run Bugs Bunny, I will win for whoever stands the best chance of beating Zero.
I miss Bush and sad to say I even miss Clinton.

I'm absolutely not voting for the lesser of two socialists anymore.

[Tublecane]

“I’m absolutely not voting for the lesser of two socialists anymore”

I’m lucky. Living in Minnesota, my presidential vote never counts (outside the state, that is), so i don’t have to worry about contributing to defeat or anything. Besides, I never understood why it is that I have to vote for the guy who wins. I can vote for whoever I want, winner or loser. And since there’s no way a president will ever be elected or not according to my individual vote, what is there to worry about?

[saluki_in_ohio]

It is time to stop listening to those who are making a living off trying to destroy Republicans. The truth is we have MANY great conservative Republicans in congress. This is a great, solid foundation on which to build.

Please pay attention to CNBC, FOX and CSPAN to watch the work these brave people are doing. They're doing it in spite of the negativity of people like you and others here on FR who refuse to acknowledge they are doing the very work you claim you want done.

The RINO liberal sellouts which you seem to admire have betrayed conservatives. Now we have a bunch of Massengill-scented socialist Republicans who claim to be conservative, but are really closet liberals or simply in politics for the graft and lust for power.

Brave Republicans, now that's a good one! If they had a semblance of a spine, we wouldn't be in this mess with a craven socialist running our country down the toilet.

[SoCalPol]

Spot On!

The fool Gerald Calente, who is quoted is an anti war
L Ron Paul follower also of Alex Jones, the 9/11 Truther.

The Third Party Loons are the Democrats best friends.

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

I feel sorry for these people. They don't see the good right under their eyes. We have a fantastic group in congress. They're solid on all these issues. What more could any Republican want. It's time for them to wake up. On many of these votes Republicans are voting against the RATs 100 per cent.

I love seeing my congressman, Steve King on CSPAN with his special orders. He's joined by many really great Republicans. They need thanks and encouragement--not scorn.

[SoCalPol]

You are correct.

Here in San Diego three of our five congressmen are
great conservative Republicans:
Marine Capt. and Rep. Duncan Hunter, Brian Bilbray and
Darrell Issa. Issa has a great report on ACORN which he
is exposing in Congress

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

Thanks and exactly!! These people are not that unique in the US House. There are GREAT people there!!