What's Up with this Intrade??!! (NOBama - 58.0% - McCain - 41.6% - 11:00 PST)

Intrade.com ^ | 9-25-2008 | Intrade

[r9etb]

Meh..... who cares what Intrade says?

[Osage Orange]

After the bailout, McCain lost my vote.. I was getting all my friends to vote for him.

Not anymore.

Sure you were....!!

ROFLOL!!!

[freeplancer]

Buy McCain. I made $397.00 off of $70.00 for the Palin pick and this McCain level will be the lowest you will see until the end. BUY

[freeplancer]

Intrade has proven to be the most accurate “poll” there is. People lie and are flakey with question polls but they don’t screw around with their money.

[Osage Orange]

Seeing how you haven't replied to anyone here...I will conclude you are a MarxistSocialistLyingLiberalDim....

Do you...have a Che Guevara poster at your HQ's too?

[r9etb]

People lie and are flakey with question polls but they don’t screw around with their money.

LOL!

Look, FRiend ... Intrade is a self-selecting sample.

Its MO is essentially for people to bet on trends. It's a guessing game with prizes.

One thing it is not, is a valid indicator of the population at large.

[RogerWilko]

I must’ve tipped everyone off on a buying spree, because there’s been about a 6 point shift in the last couple of hours.

Now it’s about 55.9 - 44.4!

[GLDNGUN]

Intrade has proven to be the most accurate “poll” there is. People lie and are flakey with question polls but they don’t screw around with their money.

That is utter nonsense.

First, who you WANT to win and who you THINK will win are entirely different. Do you think 90% of football fans wanted the Patriots to win the Super Bowl against the Giants? No, but not many people were betting on the Giants to win.

Secondly, "people don't screw around with their money"??? ARE YOU KIDDING???? ROFL OF COURSE, people "screw around with their money!" Ever heard of "gambling"? That's what intrade is - GAMBLING. It's even more of gamble than a football wager. How many professional gamblers do you know, whether it's betting on horses, football, cards, or politics? NONE? Exactly! That's because the VAST MAJORITY of people who "don't screw around with their money" ARE DOING EXACTLY THAT when they bet on such things. They may THINK they are "experts", but more than 90% of such bettor LOSE in the long run.

Again, intrade is 100% worthless. It is nothing more than a reflection of current public sentiment of who they THINK will win, NOT even who they want to win. WHO CARES.

[Wilder Effect]

Please. Were they safe with their money, when they bet Kerry up to 80% on election Day 2004?

Intrade got duped by the bogus exit polls, and they are being duped again by bogus ABC polling.

[freeplancer]

Okay friend. Congrats, you won the “I am smarter than someone else” award for today. I hope this added to your personal value and I hope it made you more confident as a person. You are superior and I will just go cling to my guns and religion now.

[r9etb]

My, my.... just a bit sensitive, are we?

What I said is true, though: Intrade is a self-selecting sample. It is not a true indicator of what the general public believes, or what individuals may or may not do.

At root, Intrade is a group of people getting together to bet on what happens next.

[word_warrior_bob]

They’re just giving away money, buy McCain.

[sbMKE]

Bush went of around 23-24 (% chance of winning) for a while on election day in 2004. Bad bets and foreign money flow through Intrade at times, both showing precious little understanding of the ebb and flow of US politics and events (See: Palin to be withdrawn as VP pick).

[sbMKE]

Many thousands of dollars are necessary to move the Intrade markets a half dozen points in this case.

In other low volume markets a couple hundred bucks can create very wild swings.

[freeplancer]

Yes, I am sensitive. I offered my opinion to the original poster and someone (like you) always has to chime in with their OPINION and refer to your opinion as fact. It is my opinion that Intrade ends up reflecting good info for things I am interested in. If your opinion is different, good for you. Let it go

[r9etb]

Yes, I am sensitive. I offered my opinion to the original poster....

Which was me....

someone (like you) always has to chime in with their OPINION and refer to your opinion as fact.

Sorry, pal, but it is a FACT that Intraders are a self-selecting group and as such they cannot be considered a valid sample of the voting public.

It's also pretty certain that Intraders, by and large, would not be willing to put their money on something they didn't think would happen -- or perhaps Intraders are betting on darkhorses in hopes of getting a rich payout; or they're playing both sides ... always in hopes of coming out ahead financially.

Which is to say, there is a very strong bias at work that is not present among the actual voting public.

[freeplancer]

“pal”, “friend”? What are you, a bookie? That explains your disdain for Intrade.

[freeplancer]

RogerWilko was the original poster. Maybe you are his other personality

[r9etb]

RogerWilko was the original poster. Maybe you are his other personality

Sorry, FRiend, but you started the pissing contest by replying to my post 61.

[Kevmo]

I posted this on the Profit Opportunities thread...
Intrade Profit Opportunities for this Election Cycle

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2086290/posts?page=20#20

Contract 2008.PRES.McCAIN
The Intrade Electoral map is back to 227 McCain vs. 311 Obama, which I think is severely underpricing McCain in several states and in the individual president contract.

John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
42.3 42.4 42.1 663754 -1.7

2008.PRES.OBAMA
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
55.8 56.7 56.6 647424 +0.9

The last few days have been a bumpy ride, and on top of that there have been database issues on Free Republic, so I couldn’t even post to this thread until now.

It might be time for a daily intrade thread until the election. There’s money on the table that we get to take from mostly liberals.