What's Up with this Intrade??!! (NOBama - 58.0% - McCain - 41.6% - 11:00 PST)

Intrade.com ^ | 9-25-2008 | Intrade

[dalereed]

Must be the same idiots that habituate casinos and waste their money in the stock market.

[Plutarch]

You'd think the Gallup Daily Tracking poll coming up 3 points in one day to even steven would have helped a little more.

[boomop1]

A joke post.

[SAJ]

1) There hasn't BEEN a bailout yet.

2) Word is that McQueeg is going to vote against the Reid-Pelosi-Frank bailout. Good on him if he does.

Hold your water. Lots will happen before they get this done.

[kesg]

After the bailout, McCain lost my vote.. I was getting all my friends to vote for him.

Will all due respect, this is just plain stupid. There is no argument you can possibly make that would lead any rational person to conclude that Obama-Biden would be better for this country than Palin-McC....er, McCain-Palin.

[RogerWilko]

wait till the weekly reader poll comes out in october. the kids vote has been 100% right every election since 1956.

I've been waiting for that one, since the kids ALWAYS get it right. This should be a good one!

[Antoninus]

Intrade is a joke. How’d they do in the Veepstakes pick, anyway?

[SAJ]

Not at all. It’s **very** useful for creating arbitrages. Tch, tch, tch. Use more imagination, m’friend.

[kesg]

I wasn’t really sweating it, I was just wondering why he picked up such a huge advantage since he hasn’t done JACK SQUAT to earn it!

Simple. ABC weighted that poll to include 54%Ds and only 38%Rs. The spread between the two parties should never be more than 4 points -- if it is, it is no longer a representative sample and can therefore be dismissed.

[NKStarr]

Nothing fishy at all. It reflects the “market’s” expectations. If you have convictions the other way, then now is a great time to buy McCain.

[RogerWilko]

After the bailout, McCain lost my vote.. I was getting all my friends to vote for him. Not anymore.

I noticed the DUmp hasn't gotten wind of the latest polls by Zogby or Gallup. Have you seen anything while you were there?

If not, maybe you could start today's firestorm while you're there!

[Kozak]

I’d short Bambi, make a killing...

[RoseofTexas]

I guess I'm going to have to post this again!

I don't care if this sounds tiring to some here, but I kinda made a promise to myself that I will NOT rely on poll numbers because they can be so decieving, even when we are up in the polls. Things can change in a twinkling of an eye!! I will be posting what I said from an earlier post yesterday every time I see polls posted ..... “Just came for Drudge and he has a picture of the smug black messiah holding up a fist symbolizing black power used by the black panthers! I still don't believe the polls, NO WAY, NO HOW....I’m getting a little nervous but GOD will help us win this battle. The Tsunami of evil spewed by the RATS and their accomplices is beyond anything I have EVER witnessed. I serve a God who deals with the impossible, I serve a MIGHTY God who deals severely with evil doers and has the power to change things. I serve a God who listens to the cries of his people. I serve a KING who has the power to turn the hearts of people to do the right thing. I serve a MASTER who turns situations around... what satan meant for evil HE will turn it around for good. I have to believe I serve a MIGHTY GOD! Fix your eyes on Him don’t look at the situation, but put your faith in him. IF ever we needed Him most it’s now. Call upon him and he will answer. I’m NOT willing to surrender my COUNTRY over to Satan’s cronies yet! The SPIRITUAL fight has just began. Please, I implore you, FAST AND PRAY. This is the only way we can defeat the demons and their plans. Do not fear for God is with us. PLEASE, PLEASE..God Doesn't need an army of millions but a handful of faithful believers who are willing to take a stand in the middle of the Storm by faith believing without wavering that God can do all things! Even this to turn an election to favor McPAL! Join me with prayer and fasting.”

[ari-freedom]

is this the same intrade that predicted Romney or pawlenty would be VP?

[Fred]

Intrade is not even remotely accurate. Use this for a trend

[GLDNGUN]

intrade is 100% absolutely meaningless.

Why anyone pays any attention to it or posts their numbers here is beyond me. It is simply a reflection of the wagering public sentiment, like a football game pointspread.

Does any one here get that?

If 58% of the people in the world are willing to bet, think Obama is going to win, so what? Who cares?! It means nothing.

Just like if 58% of the betting public think 1 team is going to beat another team, again who cares? Does it mean that that team is going to win? Are you kidding?

These political pointspreads are even less reliable that a football pointspread. At least with a football game you can examine the strengths and weaknesses of a team, look at the history, you know actually HANDICAP the game.

With politics, it's more guesswork than handicapping, as the sample of past results is so small and so much can happen between now and the election, where as in a football game a few days away, rarely does something happen off the field that will effect the outcome of the game.

I'll try to say again this way. A football pointspread is NOT a prediction of experts on how they think a game will go. It is a REFLECTION of what the PUBLIC thinks will happen. The job of an oddsmaker is NOT to predict the outcome of a game, but to predict what number will split public opinion. If the "guess" is wrong, the pointspread will often move to reflect that and to try to get more money on the short side in an effort to make it balanced.

Does anyone here get that? Likewise, "intrade" is NOT any "experts" prediction of the outcome. It's a reflection of worldwide PUBLIC opinion. AGAIN, WHO FRIGGIN CARES?

[autumnraine]

No, he hasn’t done anything but “not be a Republican”. That’s all that’s necessary in this ADD world we live in.

[stevem]

There is likely a snowball effect. I think McCain is down today with Obama at 91%, McCain at 6% and 3% at Other or Undecided.

[RichardW]

Perhaps you would be more comfortable opining at DailyKos. You would rather install a Marxist in the WH? That is shooting yourself in the foot. I hope you enjoy the reeducation camps to come.

[MEGoody]

After the bailout, McCain lost my vote.. I was getting all my friends to vote for him. Not anymore.

What bail out? Are you talking about the current one that is being discussed? As of right now, nothing has been passed (although Harry Reid tried to say there was).

At any rate, I can understand your feelings on this. But I will be voting McCain/Palin. Obama is so evil, I couldn't stand to just sit by and not vote (or vote for a third party which doesn't have a chance of winning).

Besides, I'm crazy about Sarah, and I'd love to have her set up to run in 2012. ;)