What's Up with this Intrade??!! (NOBama - 58.0% - McCain - 41.6% - 11:00 PST)

Intrade.com ^ | 9-25-2008 | Intrade

[listenhillary]

New Freddie and Fannie bail out investment scheme? Corner the market on in-trade to pay their country club fees for the next year?

[Revolting cat!]

[mlocher]

If you are this mad about INTRADE, I suggest you get your revenge by purchasing some shares of McCain.

[Cementjungle]

After the bailout, McCain lost my vote.. I was getting all my friends to vote for him.

So now you think Obama's better? How does he stand on this issue exactly?

[6SJ7]

After the bailout, McCain lost my vote.. I was getting all my friends to vote for him. Not anymore.

demoskowitz. Almost looks like an anagram for "democrats for kos".

[Wilder Effect]

Right. I traded there in 2006, and got my butt kicked when I bought the GOP to retain the Senate at 75% two weeks before the election. They had Hillary as a big favorite all thru 2007.

If Intrade got duped by the 2004 exit polls, what makes them any wiser than us?

[KarlInOhio]

How much money is traded on these contracts and how much would I have to throw in to shift it by 6 points? As stated by others, this could be an attempt by Zerobama supporters with money who figure this is cheap advertising. The assumption is that since people are betting real money on this they are more likely to be honest about their picks than in a poll. However, with enough money you could shift Intrade your way much like a bar hiring people to sit around, drink and have fun to make it seem like a fun place to be so you show up. Thus, unlike a sports bet, putting my money in could have a real effect on the final results if I put in enough.

[mojito]

This is the same Wall Street crowd who are now asking to be bailed out by you and me.

At a minimum, I think they have a serious problem evaluating risk.

[101voodoo]

When Intrade starts being the standard for electing anyone, then, I’ll look at it.

[Wilder Effect]

Before the Lehman Brothers mess, they had Obama at 44% also and McCain at 56%.

Just a emotional snapshot

[Resolute Conservative]

Enjoy your Obama years. Maybe he will give you a pass on your elevated tax rate since you helped elect him.

[uncbob]

After the bailout, McCain lost my vote.. I was getting all my friends to vote for him.

You prefer CIC Obama and a SCOTUS of activist left wingers not to speak of the federal judgeships

[Cousin Eddie]

Remember, INTRADE is not a poll.

If one of these guys gets up by 10% in the polls, he’ll be at 90%+++ on INTRADE, because it’s all or nothing. If you bet on the right guy, even if he wins by one electoral vote, then you win. So if a guy gets a big lead, INTRADE will tip dramatically in his direction. INTRADE is only close when the polling is very close, but Obama has led by 3%+ on RCP for the last few days which is enough to push is lead up quite a bit on the betting sites.

[Resolute Conservative]

The spin cycle has started in the wash out of candidates. Novemeber 4th is close and some are in panic mode.

[kingattax]

forget intrade,relax and wait till the weekly reader poll comes out in october. the kids vote has been 100% right every election since 1956.

[Warlord]

“After the bailout, McCain lost my vote.. I was getting all my friends to vote for him.”

Astroturfing ...

[dools007]

Its just a friendly pollster trying to pull Onada’s chestnuts out of the fire—one more time. The man got caught asleep at the switch—again—with McCain’s call to postpone electioneering until a bailout package is passed.

[Soul Seeker]

Why in the hell do so many care about that site? It has no special insight into the election. At all. It merely reacts to the same news we get everyday. It’s completely useless.

[LadyPilgrim]

Hold onto your vote buddy boy. There isn’t a bailout yet!

Another dim lie. Repubs haven’t signed on to this thing. yet...

[Free_at_last_-2001]

its a good time to buy if your into it - exactly!