Feels like an episode from Mythbusters:
Myth: NASDAQ tech stocks deserve their massive P/E ratios
Reasson: Its a new economy.
BUSTED!
Myth: Housing never goes down.
Reason: Population growth and a paradigm shift.
BUSTED!
Myth: There is no oil bubble or speculation on oil.
Reason: Speculations isn’t possible unless inventories rise.
BUSTED!
Myth: World economies will soar despite US economic downturn.
Reason: The developing nations are developing.
BUSTED!
In every single one of these busted myths, there has been one over-riding conclusion that lead the experts and those who believed them to delusional conclusions: Past performance MUST guarantee future results.
If tech stocks are booming, they will keep booming.
If house prices are rising, they will keep rising.
If oil prices are rising, they will keep rising.
If developing countries GDP is soaring, they will keep soaring.
The idiots who built these myths and the idiots who followed just ignored the cycles. They couldn’t think beyond the existing trend and caused a wake of destruction in their path for all who heed their sour advice. Unbelievable that “experts” can be that stupid. No, it’s highly believable.
There can certainly be speculation on commodity futures even without inventories changing hands, and that speculation can affect current prices. Nonetheless, I would suggest that, in a large market, the only way speculators as a group can make money is if they work to stabilize rather than destabilize prices. Of course, it is quite possible for some speculators to make a lot of money by enticing suckers to enter the speculative market. In that case, the former group of speculators can make money from the latter.