Posted on 05/25/2006 1:44:27 PM PDT by DaveGOP
Journalist Froma Harrop insists that McCain is a "thoroughbred no longer," and that his presidential chances have been gutted by his recent embrace of the socially conservative wing of the GOP, including his visit to Falwell's university, and that moderates and swing voters will flee from the Arizona senator, leaving him only with his always-tepid support from Republicans and conservatives.
Harrop's argument seems plausible upon examining the most recent FOX News poll that shows McCain beating Hillary by a mere four points, a dramatic fall from his once Herculean lead over the senator from New York. Has McCain been tainted by his embrace of all things conservative? The answer is a resounding no, and the reasoning of Froma and others has much to do with their insulated position on the midnight-blue coasts of America, where positions like the refusal to raise taxes and the support of cultural conservatism are actually net liabilities for a politician.
In order to debunk the Harrop theory once and for all --- as we are sure to hear much, much more of it over the months to come --- let's take a closer look at that FOX poll. The internals of a McCain/Hillary contest show the Arizona senator besting Ms. Clinton by 8 points among independents, winning nearly 20 percent of Democrats, and 79 percent of Republicans. Now compare this to Giuliani/Clinton numbers in the same poll. The good mayor takes almost the same number of Democrats, beats Hillary among independents by almost the same ratio, and takes 86 percent of Republicans. The result? Giuliani beats Hillary by 9, while McCain bests her by 4, solely because Rudy is able to win more Republican votes.
That last part is essential to understanding the flaw in the Harrop argument. Here we have Giuliani, a socially liberal Republican, and McCain, a social conservative, attaining the same amount of Democrat and independent votes in a general election matchup against the likely Democratic nominee. In other words, moving left on social issues is not essential or even helpful for a Republican in the general. The country is so polarized that, as long as the Republican nominee is actually a Republican, regardless of how spectacular that nominee may be, the best he or she will be able to do is win 20 percent of Democrats and beat the Democratic nominee by 8-10 percentage points. That's far better than Bush did among either group, and it's more than enough to win nationally, and to win big.
So what accounts for the fact that McCain once beat Hillary by double-digits in these very polls but now leads by only a few points? The Harrop theory is correct to this extent: McCain embracing Falwell, promising not to repeal the tax cuts, etc, did cause McCain to lose some support. But that support was from voters who were only backing the senator due to his status as the anti-Bush Republican. Largely liberal and Democratic, these voters were bound to leave McCain at some point as long as he planned on keeping the "R" next to his name. Note that these voters who have left McCain were never with Mr. Giuliani, which also indicates that their former support for McCain stemmed not from positions, but from their mutual opposition to Bush. It was an "the enemy of my enemy..." sort of dynamic that could only last as long as McCain was the enemy of the GOP establishment. Once he becomes their standard-bearer, that alliance ceases to exist.
And so McCain's biggest dilemma, at this point, is to increase the number of Republicans willing to support him in a matchup with Ms. Clinton. He doesn't have to take the 93 percent hyper-majority that Bush did; all McCain needs is a healthy 86 percent, like his friend, Mayor Giuliani. McCain has shown that he can run as a low-tax, fiscally responsible, socially conservative, defense hawk, good-government conservative and collect 20 percent of Democrats and best Hillary by 8 points among independents, a group that Bush lost by 1 point. McCain doesn't have much morphing left to do on positions, he just needs to convince a few more Republicans to bury the hatchet of the last few years and hop on board. At that point, McCain's election over Hillary would be inevitable, with Norquist and Falwell along for the ride.
McCain? Conservative? Know any other good jokes? When will he come up with the next Constitution-busting piece of legislation that Bush will also sign??
"McCain has shown that he can run as a low-tax, fiscally responsible, socially conservative, defense hawk, good-government conservative"
I'm trying very hard not to laugh my ass off here.
McCain is like the crazy weather in Texas, wait awhile and he will change.
McCain is like the crazy weather in Texas, wait awhile and he will change.
McCain as a Conservative
When will he come up with the next Constitution-busting piece of legislation that Bush will also sign??
McCain is an enemy of good sense.
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