Explaining the New Orleans Election(From a Conservative Local )

Late Saturday night, I was ahead of virtually all of the media outlets in New Orleans in calling the election for the incumbent Mayor Ray Nagin, the one of post-Katrina and "chocolate city" notoriety. The behavior of the New Orleans media reminded me of how the TV networks had to pull back from announcing the Gore victory they so yearned for in 2000. It reminded me how on the day of the 2004 presidential election the media was all agog over inaccurate exit polls indicating a Kerry victory. I called the election for Nagin and did so quite happily and thankfully. It's worth explaining to non-Louisianians because the Nagin victory will likely be in most national headlines on Monday. The first reaction of many nationally will be that New Orleanians made a mistake by re-electing a mayor given to outrageous comments that embarrass the city. That first but understandable reaction would be wrong. Give me your patience, and let me explain why.

Nagin was first elected mayor four years ago as a pro-business, reform candidate. Although a Democrat in a heavily Democratic city, Nagin was indeed the reform candidate who promised to get rid of the cronyism, patronage, and corruption that was a decades-old tradition and even source of perverse roguish pride in New Orleans city hall. The cronyism was just the way business was done, Louisiana and New Orleans style. Nagin ended that perverse tradition well before Katrina hit. Not a few of the rogues were shown the exit door at New Orleans city hall before Katrina.

Then Katrina hit, and you know the rest. Nagin was and is a political maverick who doesn't follow anyone's or any party's agenda, although he is a nominal Democrat by necessity. In my view, when Katrina hit, the liberal Democrat establishment--consisting locally of inept Governor Kathleen Blanco and the Landrieu family, and nationally of the Democrat National Committee--could see that the dispersal of so many black voters was a direct political threat to the reelection of Democrats statewide, such as Gov. Blanco and U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu. And so, in my opinion, the push was on to take control, in one way or another, of the city and the reconstruction effort from the hands of maverick, loose cannon Nagin and put it in the hands of a reliable establishment party-line Democrat. Nagin had earned the distrust of the Democrats when he had previously endorsed a Republican for governor in a previous election. That's not something a Democratic African-American mayor usually does.

What better choice then than the brother of Democratic U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu herself: Mitch Landrieu. And so the national and state Democrats coalesced around the Senator's brother. By the way, the Landrieu family is referred to by the media as Louisiana's equivalent of the Kennedys. Senator Mary Landrieu sure makes them similar to the Kennedys in a way that I and many of my readers will find highly distasteful: she is a pro-abortion Catholic (Senator Mary Landrieu has a 43% pro-abortion NARAL rating; see link). In fact, not too long ago, the Archbishop of New Orleans made it a point to boycott the granting of an honorary degree to the Landrieu family as a whole by the local, of course liberal, Jesuit university because of this Kennedyesque resemblance on the abortion issue. Similarly, a prior Archbishop of New Orleans had expressed the view that no Catholic should vote for Mary Landrieu when she first ran for the Senate due to her views on abortion.

With millions raised and, according to one local political analyst, with Democrat National Committee advice, Mitch Landrieu ran a textbook professional campaign that culminated with a grand outdoor reception, New Orleans-style, with a brass band to boot, for the political and economic elites of the city the day before the election. They came, to borrow a phrase from Nagin, to "kiss the ring." The Landrieu political dynasty was set to take over the second most powerful political office (after the governorship) in Louisiana. The brother would watch out for his sister's political fortunes when she ran again for the U.S. Senate in 2008. He would look out for whoever might be the Democratic candidate for governor in the near future, with the real possibility in mind that he himself might be that gubernatorial candidate. All was set. The plan was well-funded, planned, and rolled-out like the D-Day invasion.

But to the shock, awe, and dismay of the political pundits and powers of Louisiana, unlike D-Day, the plan died on the beaches. Mr. Nagin won with very little money. In fact, one national newspaper had earlier referred to the low-key Nagin campaign as "mysterious" in its conventional invisibility. Another source has noted that Nagin was at a six to one disadvantage in fundraising in the runoff. Whatever the exact proportion, it is clear that Landrieu had an immense money advantage over Nagin.

As one prominent local talk radio station began its election night coverage, its two seasoned political analysts predicted an undoubted Landrieu victory before the first votes were even reported. I recall one of the political "experts" saying that he and others would be "stunned" if Nagin won reelection. There are a lot of stunned important people in New Orleans today. By later that evening, at least one of the radio experts was fumbling for a way to climb out of the hole they had dug themselves into because they were so out of touch with the people of New Orleans.

Why did Nagin win? It appears that he got about 80% of the black vote. Liberal Landrieu appears to have even lost some of the black vote he had gained in the earlier primary campaign. (The final election was technically a "run-off" between the two survivors of the primary election, Nagin and Mitch Landrieu.) Black voters felt it was important to keep a cherished symbol of their political empowerment and not trade it in for a white liberal.

But, most crucially in my opinion, was that Nagin's reelection would have been absolutely impossible without the support of many conservative, Republican white voters. In fact, I participated regularly in a web forum during the campaign in which many aspects of the campaign were debated. I made it a point to explain why Nagin should be reelected. On that web forum, I called the election for Nagin after another forum participant (much more astute than the radio experts) posted the results from some white precincts: Nagin was getting 20% or more of the white vote!

In the primary election that preceded the final runoff between Nagin and Mitch Landrieu, Nagin had received only about 6% of the white vote. Conservative, Republican whites swung to Nagin and handed him the election.

Why? A prominent white Republican candidate, Rob Couhig, who had lost in the primary election (and thus did not make the runoff election) showed great courage and daring by crossing the traditional color line and endorsing Nagin on the airwaves. A group of Republican activists, the Greater New Orleans Republicans, also endorsed and campaigned actively for Nagin. Why? Because Nagin was pro-business and stood out in New Orleans political history for his honesty. And, of course, no conservative wanted to see another liberal Landrieu in power. As one black political analyst put it, Nagin won with a "shotgun marriage" coalition of white conservatives and black voters. That's the nightmare of Howard Dean and the Democrat National Committee. I am sure they are also stunned today.

Personally, I could see how the Mitch Landrieu candidacy would further enhance the political fortunes of a very prominent pro-abortion Catholic Senator. So I did whatever I could, including praying, to enhance Nagin's chances in my own very small way. That's why I argued regularly for Nagin in that New Orleans web forum. There was a great political miracle Saturday night in New Orleans. Some of us prayed for it.

In short, the closest thing to the Republican conservative candidate won the mayor's election in New Orleans. The "dynasty" that is the Louisiana equivalent to the Kennedys was defeated. White conservatives crossed the color line: philosophy overcame any lingering racial prejudices. So I was quite happy to see Mayor Nagin go out of his way to thank President Bush for keeping his promises to aid New Orleans. That public and emphatic thanks must have caused heartburn among the D.C. bigshots of the Democrat National Committee who are planning to use Katrina against President Bush in coming elections. President Bush has an ally in Mayor Nagin who will not follow the playbook of Howard Dean. That's a mighty good thing. Now you know the rest of the story that few in the national media will take the time to tell you.

Folks this guy hits it right on. This is also echoing what many NOLA and Louisiana Freepers have been trying to get across on Sat night, Yesterday, and into the early hours of today.. Now there will be a ton of hit pieces written by Conservative bloggers, whose knowledge of New Orleans rivals my knowledge of the the Crators of the moon. The sole purpose ,IMHO, for some is to throw meat to the Lions. IN fact they are buying into the an agenda the above blog talks about and they don't know it. In fact some of these bloggers and pundits are going to look like fools if this Dean story is true and they are actually going to have to look at what's really going on.

With millions raised and, according to one local political analyst, with Democrat National Committee advice, Mitch Landrieu ran a textbook professional campaign

Also adds credence to Drudge's story that the DNC actively campaigned against Nagin.

One other note. Nagin I believe got more than 20 percent of the total white vote by a couple of percentages. However there are a ton of White Libs that voted for Landrieu. I phoned some gay guys on Wednesday in NOLA, I know and no one was going to vote for NAY NAY as they call him in the Gay community thats huge there. Just an example. In the other white areas that vote Republican more, Nagin percentage was sometimes above 25 percent. In Lake view the area yall saw on TV Nagin got about a 23 percent of the vote I believe overall if not a percentage higher.

Nagin had earned the distrust of the Democrats when he had previously endorsed a Republican for governor in a previous election. That's not something a Democratic African-American mayor usually does.

The DUmmies are moaning and wailing about Nagin's re-election, calling him a Republican and--of course--claiming the election was stolen.

Well there waking up over there. A few LIberal NOLA DU'ers are starting to get it through the skulls of their fellow liberals that not all is grand over in the Big Easy today. If the Dean story has legs the former supporters of the oppresed of NOLA will after Nagin with knives all thinking its was some Karl Rove plot.

I am happy with the outcome of the election. I believe that this is the first election that a Landrieu has lost. I hope Mary "Baby Fat" Landrieu will continue the streak, come November.

Nagin won because of White Conservatives. Mitch would have looted the City's coffers of all the Federal money that will be flowing in over the next few years.

I called Nagin's re-election in the weeks following the hurricane, when I was housing one of my dearest friends ... a Katrina refugee ... an Uptown Liberal. One of the cast iron rules of our friendship is that, if we discuss politics at all, it is only in the most general terms. She was appalled that I would even consider that Nagin could/would be re-elected. Predictably, during the recent campaign itself she was actively supporting Ron Forman.

I found it curious that a poll earlier in the week had Landrieu up 10 points over Nagin. I ran across a small article [can't find it now, or I would link to it]. The article stated that Jim Carven was handling Nagin's campaign. I did not even know that Carven was still alive; but, told my husband that I would put my money on Nagin ... as Carven is one of the shredest political operatives Louisiana has ever known. He was the genius behind Edwin Edwards' first campaign for governor.

No one needs to look beyond Carven's involvement to explain Nagin's victory.

The Forman issue is an interesting one. I think many conservatives at first supported Couhig and some like me supported Forman. I no longer live in NOlA but I sent money and called people. There was a lively debate if Forman was a part of the machine and was a ruse. I think most Conservatives felt for PR purposes really that the City needed a new face. But once the it was Nagin and Landrieu I think we for the most part returned to Nagin without a bunch of yelling kicking and screaming.

The poll you mention I believe was a Tulane poll. Yeah I didnt believe that either. Your correct Carven is a genius. I saw that when Nagin gave his Primary victory speech something was different. The difference was that he had handlers which was exactly what he needed to calm him down. I bet Nagin bucked every time Carven tried to lead him where he needed to go but it worked.

I no longer live in NOlA but I sent money and called people.

I left 20 years ago. I did not send money and did not call people.

There was a lively debate if Forman was a part of the machine and was a ruse.

All the [rational] discussions I heard indicated that Forman, a long time Morial confederate, would give Marc Morial the third term he was prohibited from running for.
I know what it means to miss New Orleens ... but not its politics!

Well maybe we were taken for a ride but Morial Life ballot on the election day had Landrieu on it. I am hoping the poltics gets better. I think this might happen with such a bew city council. Even Clarkson got defeated

Thank you for posting this. I saw that Michelle Malkin said that New Orleans results were the "definition of insanity." What she missed was that voting for Landrieu would have been doing the same thing and expecting a different result. A lot changed on Saturday night and I'll bet Mary and Blanco are sweating bullets over it.

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