Posted on 02/02/2007 4:47:11 PM PST by PhiKapMom
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
New York, Feb 2 -
To:
Team Rudy
From:
Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:
February 2, 2007
Re:
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.
Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.
According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”
In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.
The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.
Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:
|
State |
Mayor Giuliani |
Closest Competitor |
Source |
| California | 33% | 19% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 11-17 |
| Florida | 30% | 16% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 4-9 |
| Illinois | 33% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-14 |
| Michigan | 34% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 4-7 |
| Nevada | 31% | 25% (McCain) | ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06 |
| New Jersey | 39% | 21% (McCain) | Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22 |
| North Carolina | 34% | 26% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-15 |
| Ohio | 30% | 22% (McCain) | Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28 |
| Pennsylvania | 35% | 25% (McCain) | ARG Jan. 4-8 |
| Texas | 28% | 26% (McCain) | Baselice Jan. 17-21 |
Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.
Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.
A President has very little impact on abortion. You want to end abortion, work with your Congresscritter or elect a Republican who'll nominate strict constructionists to the bench.
Rudy will be more pro-life than Hillary and the other Dim clowns, I guarantee that.
It's not going to be DNC Lite; it's going to be a more moderate conservative party though; you all have had your foot on our necks for too long.
This country has to be governed in the middle; the world has moved on from the 50's.
The Contract with America will unite this party again. But we're not going to let you make abortion and guns the big issues this time around.
Wrong, for reasons I have stated. Clinton vetoed PBA legislation twice. Bush signed it. Rudy is opposed to such.
I guess that's why NARAL never endorsed him.
Whoops, they did.
BUMP back at 'cha!
Not by any definition that means anything.
...but I'm also pragmatic.
No, you just think you are. The actual term is "shortsighted."
I'm sick and tired of Republicans who want to expand government via their religious beliefs.
That's what it always comes down to with people like you, really. You despise Christians, especially those with the gall to fight for what they believe in the public arena.
As I pointed out about that USA Today poll, even after all the "dirt" on Rudy comes out about his "horrific" views on gays and abortion, 55% of the GOP voters are still well disposed to him, and not bothered a wit about it as to his candidacy, and another 25% are still willing to at least consider him as a nominee. Only 20% freak out. Those that self identify as GOP must be a cohort that has now been taken over by "liberals."
It's not going to be DNC Lite; it's going to be a more moderate conservative party though; you all have had your foot on our necks for too long.Wow. Morality is a jack-boot I guess. Abortion a right. Queerdom a right. Gun ownership a privilege. Free speech ditto. How weird.
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Well, all you've done is prove you lied to the Admin Moderator.
"You don't have a clue to the college town I live in or the University. Frankly, I resent that you would think that the Red States would be so prudish that it would keep them from voting for Rudy."
I don't think it is a secret as to which college town you live in, you've mentioned it a time or two here. You and I both live in OK, and I can assure you that the people of our state, both democrats, and republicans, would not vote for Rudy. Well, maybe a small percentage would, but most of them would be professors at that "college" that we know about.
The Contract with America will unite this party again. But we're not going to let you make abortion and guns the big issues this time around.
Okay, Christie Todd. We'll see about that. We've heard this stuff before, over and over again. And always, it's y'all who end up riding on the back of the bus where you belong.
Yo, bozo, when you REPOST my post, PING ME.
Haven't you learned ANYTHING tonight?
YES!
Yeah. It's pretty strange. But we always knew this crowd's closeted liberalism wouldn't stay closeted forever.
Should sodomy be a crime?
That is simply not true. I don't need politicians preaching morality, that's all.
I'm not advocating for Republicans to abandon moral issues. But they don't have to run on it 24/7 either. Conservative voters already know Republican candidates will be on the right side of social issues. So why do Republicans continue being redundant then?
So when are you going to join Rudy's team? ;^)
Gazuntight.
When the Borg mother ship shows up and I drop my pro-life, pro-gun and anti-amnesty views so I can be assimilated.
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