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Just how fair is the 'FairTax'?
Money.cnn ^ | 9/7/05 | Pat Regnier

Posted on 09/07/2005 5:15:28 PM PDT by Man50D

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To: lewislynn
Surprise! is right. "All the other taxes corporations pay" you can't seem to list but know the exact percentage of ?...LOL! Sorry, it ain't gonna happen without the employee's losing their withholding.

It is just ashame that the truth is getting out. Of course fair taxers will stay in denial. You can't convince a fair taxer that 1+1=2 if the fairtax FAQ says otherwise. Their supporters are loyal. Brain-dead, but loyal.

61 posted on 09/07/2005 7:11:08 PM PDT by Always Right
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To: Man50D
I think this is the best way to start reform:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1469868/posts
62 posted on 09/07/2005 7:14:18 PM PDT by mosquitobite
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To: Man50D
Getting 100% of your paycheck is too controversial?
It's the 100% paycheck AND 20% price reductions that's not only controversial, it's a lie.

The Fairtax rate "shall be that sales tax rate which is necessary to raise the same amount of revenue that would have been raised by imposing a 12.4 percent tax on the Social Security wage base (including self-employment income)---

Plus, The Fairtax rate " shall be that sales tax rate which is necessary to raise the same amount of revenue that would have been raised by imposing a 2.9 percent tax on the Social Security wage base (including self-employment income)"

That's 15.3% of the Social Security wage base included in the Fairtax rate....So why is the Fairtax definition of 100% paycheck only 7.65% of the Social Security wage base? How is that a "Fairtax"?

63 posted on 09/07/2005 7:25:18 PM PDT by lewislynn (Status quo today is the result of eliminating the previous status quo. Be careful what you wish for)
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To: All

An explanation of the assumptions made by Dr. Jorgenson and misrepresented by Boortz

Economist assume that there will be one of two outcome with the transition to a sales tax. They are:

In his study, Dr. Jorgenson made Assumption 2 - that take-home pay and consumer prices stay the same. This is not wrong, it is just one of the possible outcomes. What was wrong was how this was presented by Boortz and the FairTax supporters. They took the assumption that take-home pay would increase (from Assumption 1) and paired it with the assumption that consumer prices will stay the same (from Assumption 2). They mixed the best of both worlds and came up with a windfall, that take-home pay would increase while consumer prices stayed the same, that could not possibly happen. Much of the proported benefits of the FairTax come from this erroneous assumption made by Boortz and the FairTax supporters.

While Dr. Jorgenson's use of Assumption 2 was not wrong, most economists believe that, because wages are difficult to lower (economists call this "sticky wages"), Assumption 1 is the most likely outcome from a transition to a sales tax.

Below is a complilation of quotes from various economists (including, ironically, the authors of the FairTax bill) that explain these assumptions in greater detail:


Consumption Taxes: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues

by C. Alan Garner
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
in Economic Review - Second Quarter 2005

Wages and prices. Replacing the income tax with a flat tax poses smaller challenges for wage and price adjustment than either a national sales tax or a VAT. Because the structure of the flat tax is similar to the current income tax, large adjustments in consumer prices or wages would probably not be necessary After-tax and before-tax wages would be similar before and after the tax reform, and nominal prices would be roughly unchanged (Zodrow 2002).

A national sales tax or a VAT, in contrast, would require the average price of consumer goods and services to rise relative to production costs and wages.15 A national retail sales tax is the simplest case to understand because the tax is imposed entirely at the retail level. Consumers would pay a substantially higher price for goods and services after adding in sales taxes at a rate that could easily be 30 percent or higher. Because wages are a large fraction of production costs, the price paid by consumers would increase relative to the wage rate received by workers. However, in the case of a revenue-neutral tax reform, the decline in the income-related taxes paid by households would offset the rise in consumption taxes, leaving households with the means to purchase the higher-priced goods and services. Under a VAT, consumer prices would increase relative to wages because of taxes imposed at various stages in the production process rather than just the final retail sale.

An important question from the standpoint of short-run macroeconomic adjustment is how the increase in consumer prices relative to wages occurs. One possibility is that the after-tax consumer price level would rise by the full amount of the consumption tax while wages remain constant. Another possibility is the after-tax consumer price level would be constant while wages decrease. Most discussions of transitional tax-reform issues assume the first case.16 When a VAT has been introduced abroad, authorities typically permitted an upward adjustment in the after-tax consumer price level, although efforts were generally undertaken to ensure that this one-time adjustment did nor become a sustained inflationary process (Tait).

Alternatively, the necessary increase in consumer prices relative to wages could be accomplished by holding the price level constant and reducing the wage level. Many economist, however, believe that wages are "sticky" in the downward direction. Workers are reluctant to take a wage cut, and efforts to reduce the wage rate might cause many workers to leave their jobs. The result could be a large temporary increase in the unemployment rate and lower levels of spending and output. Gravelle cites simulations with large-scale econometric models that do not assume the economy always operates at full employment. In three of the four simulations cited, real output decreased initially in response to fundamental tax reform. Although other economists have criticized such models and might not accept their conclusions, the simulations emphasize the need for further research on the short-run employment and output effects of fundamental tax reform.

Moreover, replacing all federal income taxes with a national sales tax or VAT would require much larger price and wage adjustments than other countries experienced when adopting VATs. Foreign VAT rates have typically been no more than 10 percent because the countries kept other revenue sources, such as an income tax. In most cases, the country also eliminated other consumption-type taxes, which offset some of the upward price-level pressures. Thus, the price adjustments required by fundamental U.S. tax reform would be outside the range of historical experience.

 

  1. This discussion focuses on fundamental tax reform in which a national sales tax or VAT replaces all federal income and payroll taxes. The adjustment issues would be smaller if a low consumption-tax rate were enacted to replace a small part of the current tax system or to supplement existing revenue sources.
  2. The increase in consumer prices could account for part of the decline in the real value of existing assets during the transition to a consumption tax. Nominal assets such as bonds and bank accounts would lose real value as the price level rose. With no increase in consumer prices, the decline in the real value of existing assets would occur through other channels. For example, the decrease in wealth would fall on equity owners as corporations lost expected depreciation allowances and the prices of tax-free investment goods declined relative to taxable consumer goods and services (Zodrow 2002). In practice, the increase in the price of consumer goods and services relative to wages could occur through a combination of consumer price increases and nominal wage decreases.

Statement of Laurence J. Kotlikoff,

Professor of Economics, Boston University, and Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research

Testimony Before the House Committee on Ways and Means - Hearing on Fundamental Tax Reform
April 11, 2000

This sentence and the one preceding it assume the price level will rise with the adoption of the Fair Tax. If the Federal Reserve used its monetary policy to maintain the consumer price level, the adoption of the Fair Tax would entail a decline in the level of producer prices and, thus, the nominal wages and capital income received by productive factors.

Response to William Gale

by Dan Mastromarco and David Burton
[authors of the FairTax]
Memorandum, March 16, 1998

Federal income and payroll taxes either are or are not incorporated into the prices of goods and services. If they are embedded in prices, their removal will reduce prices. If they are not, then their removal will not reduce prices but instead returns to labor and capital will go up. If returns to labor go up, people will see their after-tax wages increase and asset values will increase since the present discounted value of the new, higher returns will be higher.

The replacement sales tax could be incident on the factors of production or it could be incident on consumers through higher prices. It cannot be both. If it is incident on the factors of production, then wages and the return to capital will fall but sales tax inclusive prices will not be any higher, on average, than they are today. If the sales tax is fully incident on consumers, then prices will increase by the amount of the sales tax but returns to labor and capital will be higher.

Criticism of the Sales Tax for Residential Real Estate Isn't Built on a Solid Foundation

by Dan R. Mastromarco and David R. Burton
[authors of the FairTax]
Tax Notes, June 29, 1998, p. 1779

Footnote #13: The degree to which after-tax wages will increase is a function of the incidence of both the sales tax and the repealed taxes. If the income tax and payroll taxes are incident on income recipients and the sales tax is incident on consumers, then after-tax wages and returns will go up quite considerably as will tax inclusive prices. If the sales tax is incident on the factors of production, then after-tax wages and the after-tax return to capital will not go up to any considerable degree (at first) but producer prices will fall and retail prices, even including the sales tax, will remain roughly comparable. The real purchasing power of wages will undoubtedly increase considerably over time because of a larger capital stock (increasing productivity), microeconomic efficiencies caused by a more efficient allocation of scarce resources, and higher productivity from lower compliance costs.

The Price Level

Switching to an indirect tax such as a valued-added tax (VAT) or national sales tax will probably cause a one-time jump in the price level, with no permanent change in the inflation rate. By contrast, any consumption-based tax that levies taxes directly on households will probably have little or no effect on the price level.

A VAT or sales tax is likely to boost the price level because each one collects the tax on labor income from the firm or retailer. That treatment represents a change from the current income tax system, which collects tax on labor income directly from the worker. Because the cost of labor to the firm would include the new tax, real compensation paid to workers would initially have to fall to match the value of their so-called "marginal product" and keep them fully employed.

Real compensation can fall in two ways: nominal compensation can drop or the price level can rise. What happens will ultimately depend on the Federal Reserve. If it fixes the price level, nominal compensation will have to fall--an event that workers might accept because they would no longer have to pay income tax and hence would take home about the same pay as now. Most analysts note, however, that workers have resisted cuts in nominal compensation in the past. Those analysts expect that firms fearing morale problems or facing union contracts will hesitate to make such cuts. In that case, nominal compensation may fall slowly to its new level, leading to higher unemployment rates in the interim. To prevent that outcome, the Federal Reserve is expected to allow the price level to rise. For example, a VAT or sales tax of 10 percent would lead to a one-time jump of 10 percent in the price of consumer products.

Further price increases may ensue if compensation is indexed to inflation. In that case, the price rise will cause a corresponding rise in compensation, and real compensation will not drop enough to maintain full employment, requiring a further price rise--that is, a wage-price spiral. That problem occurred in the United Kingdom when it adopted a VAT in 1979, although the extent of indexing there was greater than it is in the United States.

Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office. (1997). The Economic Effects of Comprehensive Tax Reform. Washington DC: Government Printing Office.
Setting aside for a moment temporary inflexibilites in contracts for wages, bonds, and so forth (we address these later), whether ther overall level of prices changes or not does not materially affect this story.16 Even if prices do not rise at all, moving to a consumption tax would cause the purchasing power of both wages and existing wealth to decline by an average of 20 percent relative to a situation with no taxes. Nominal wages would be forced down because firms would be earning 20 percent less, after taxes, from the output produced by workers. The nominal value of existing capital assets - in the form of, for example, share prices - which constitute much of old wealth, would also decline because the output they produce provides 20 percent less in after-tax revenues.
  1. Whether in fact consumer prices would rise in the event of tax reform depends on the monetary policy set by the Federal Reserve Board.

Source: Slemrod, Joel and Jon Bakija, Taxing Ourselves: A Citizen's Guide to the Great Debate over Tax Reform, MIT Press: Cambridge, 2004.

Transition Costs and Macroeconomic Adjustments

One of the most difficult issues to address in considering a shift to consumption taxes is the transition from the current system to the new tax regime.5 While all shifts to a consumption tax cause some common transitional disturbances and windfall gains and losses, the most serious problems arise from a shift to a national retail sales tax or to a value added tax. In these cases, a tax formerly largely collected from individuals is now collected at the firm level -- either from retailers on total sales or from both final and intermediate producers' value added. Flat taxes avoid this problem but can result in confiscatory taxes on existing assets.

Price Accommodation and Short-run Contractions Under a Retail Sales Tax or VAT

Holding prices fixed, these firms would need to reduce payments to workers to retain profit levels. In fact, many firms would not have enough of a profit margin to pay the tax without something else -- either prices or wages -- adjusting. Consider, for example, a grocery retailer that may have a 1% or 2% profit margin now owing a tax equal to 20% of receipts. This firm simply does not have the cash to pay the tax. If it is difficult to lower wages (and presumably it would be), a significant one-time price inflation, to allow these costs to be passed forward in prices instead, would be required to avoid a potentially serious economic contraction. Note that the price increase, were it possible to implement correctly and precisely, would solve the transition problem because although prices would rise, individuals would have more income to purchase the higher priced goods -- and demand would not fall. It is difficult, however, for the monetary authorities to engineer such a large price change. Moreover, even with the monetary expansion in place to do so, the imposition of such a tax would be disruptive if firms are reluctant to immediately raise prices, again leading to an economic contraction. That is, firms could contract their business, or even close down, until output had contracted enough to raise prices.

These disruptions are not minor in nature -- imagine the difficulties of engineering and absorbing a one-time price increase that is likely to be close to 20% (the level, approximately, that might realistically be needed to replace the income tax).6 Even if such an inflation could be managed, there are always concerns that any large inflation could create inflationary expectations -- it's hard to manage a single one-year price increase. In fact, economists who judge a consumption tax to be superior to an income tax may nevertheless be skeptical about the advisability of making the change because of these transition effects.

  1. See CRS Report 98-901, Short-Run Macroeconomic Effects of Fundamental Tax Reform, by Jane G. Gravelle and G. Thomas Woodward for a more detailed discussion of these issues.
  2. The rate would depend on whether and the extent of any family exemption. A 20% tax exclusive rate would correspond to a tax inclusive rate between 16% and 17%.
  3. 7 U.S. Congress, Joint Committee on Taxation, Tax Modeling Project and 1997 Symposium Papers, committee print, 105th Cong., 1st sess., Nov. 20, 1997, JCS-21-97 (Washington: GPO, 1997), p. 24.
Source: CRS Report for Congress: The Flat Tax, Value-Added Tax, and National Retail Sales Tax: Overview of the Issues. Esenwein, Gregg A. and Jane Gravelle.

Prices.

Prices for consumer goods and services quickly rise by the amount of the tax, and then some. The portion of the price increase in excess of the tax is due in part to the higher cost of imports (from the weaker dollar) coupled with the ability of some domestic producers of competing goods to hike their price to that of imports. Consumer prices similarly rise 25 percent -- roughly the nominal rate of sales tax, unadjusted for any exemptions or transition rules -- by 2002 and gradually drop from that peak to a level that remains about 18 percent above the pre-change baseline.

Examined on a year-over-year basis, these price increases generally amount to a large, one-time hike in prices as the NRST is imposed, with some moderation of this increase in the longer run. Due to a weaker dollar, merchandise import prices increase by nearly 4 percent shortly after the NRST is imposed and are 6.5 percent over baseline levels in 2010. Merchandise export prices are also above baseline levels. In 2001 and 2002 they are nearly 3 percent above the baseline. However, due to lower interest rates, which reduce business costs, export prices are only slightly greater than baseline levels for most of the remainder of the forecast period. The overall impact on prices is measured by the change in the GDP deflator, which initially rises 20 percent above the baseline price level before settling back to a 13 percent price rise relative to the baseline.

The notion espoused by some that pre-tax prices would drop some 20-30 percent under a NRST (so that after-tax prices would not rise and may even decline) is a peculiar one. This could only happen if all of the personal income tax, the corporation income tax and payroll taxes are currently embodied in retail prices. Tax incidence -- that is, who actually bears the ultimate tax burden -- is an elusive question that has been the focus of many economic papers, because the answer is not clear. However, the general consensus among economists is that perhaps a portion of the corporate income tax may be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices, but that the majority is ultimately paid by corporate owners in the form of lower after-tax profits and by employees in the form of lower compensation. Most economists concede that personal income taxes and payroll taxes are ultimately borne by labor and are not passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

Source: Statement of John G. Wilkins, Managing Director, Barcroft Consulting Group, on behalf of National Retail Federation. Testimony Before the House Committee on Ways and Means. Hearing on Fundamental Tax Reform. April 11, 2000.

Transitional Issues in Tax Reform

Price Level Effects

Because the flat tax is similar in structure to the existing income tax system, its implementation would have relatively little effect on the absolute price level. Both before- and after-tax wages would be roughly similar before and after reform, so that nominal prices remain roughly constant.

In contrast, the effect of implementing an NRST on the absolute price level is less certain. One possibility is that the tax could be fully shifted forward in the form of higher prices for consumption goods, with no change in the price of investment goods, which are untaxed under the NRST. At the other end of the spectrum of possible responses, nominal prices could remain constant. Under this scenario, before-tax real wages would have to fall roughly to the level of prereform after-tax real wages in response to the elimination of the income tax. Intermediate responses between the "full price adjustment" and "no price adjustment" scenarios are of course also possible.

Choosing between these various scenarios requires making necessarily speculative assumptions about the response of the monetary authorities to the imposition of the NRST. However, most analysts assume that the monetary response would be sufficiently accommodating that the full price adjustment scenario would obtain.

The primary rationale underlying this assumption is the view that the downward flexibility of nominal wages is quite limited, in part because most wage contracts and agreements are specified in nominal terms. Thus, a tax reform that required wage reductions to reach a new equilibrium would be quite costly as these wage reductions would initially be distributed unevenly across industries. This in turn might result in considerable unemployment in sectors characterized by rigid wages, as well as misallocations of labor, at least in the short run. Proponents of the full price adjustment view assume that monetary policy would be expansionary to avoid these costs.

Most observers fall into the full price adjustment camp. For example, McLure (1996, p. 23) concludes that it would be "hard to imagine the monetary authorities not accommodating such an increase in prices." Gravelle (1995, p. 59) argues that full price adjustment is likely because a "national sales tax would tend to produce an economic contraction if no price accommodation is made." In its analysis of the distributional implications of implementing consumption taxes, the Joint Committee of Taxation (1993, p. 59) concludes that, "Unless there are convincing reasons to assume otherwise, the JCT staff assumes the Federal Reserve will accommodate the policy change and allow prices to rise." Finally, Bradford (1996a, p. 135), in discussing the same issue in the context of a value-added tax, observes that, "It is commonly believed that introducing a value-added tax of the consumption type will bring with it a monetary policy adjustment that would result in a one-time increase in the price level ;and no change in payments to workers in nominal terms."

Nevertheless, opinion on this issue is certainly no unanimous. For example, the alternative assumption [that wages will fall] is implicitly made by Jorgenson and Wilcoxen, who argue that implementing a national sales tax would reduce producer prices on average by 25 percent. Auerbach (1996) takes a compromise position by assuming partial price adjustment. In addition, European experience with the introduction of the VAT is mixed, generally suggesting partial price adjustment. On the other hand, Besley and Rosen (1999) find full (or even more than 100 percent) forward shifting of state sales taxes in the United States.

Source: Zodrow, George R. (2002). "Transitional Issues in Tax Reform." In United States Tax Reform in the 21st Century, George Zodrow and Peter Mieszkowski, Editors. Cambridge University Press.

Monetary Implications of Tax Reforms

Does it matter how the central bank responds when the tax system is reformed? Some economists would argue that in a very general sense it does not. Many would argue that the central bank's response would have little long-run effect, because what really matters is the productive capacity of the economy and because there could be no money illusion in the long run.

And, in the short run, the standard relation between prices and money makes it clear that, under limiting assumptions, the central bank need not change monetary policy. Consider the transition from our present tax system to a consumption tax. Ignoring any incentive effects caused by the tax reform, velocity and output are unchanged. With a revenue-neutral tax reform, aggregate after-tax income is unchanged, so there need be no demand-driven effects on consumer prices. Under these conditions, v, y, and q remain unchanged as a result of the tax reform, and thus maintenance of the status quo implies that the central bank need not change its policy. Assuming that output is constant, the central bank could eliminate any transitory price changes in the long run by leaving monetary policy unchanged.

But things may not be that simple. The implied changes to wages and producer prices require a degree of flexibility in the economy that many might find unlikely. Specifically, for the consumer price to stay constant, the producer price must fall by the amount of the tax. And because a drop in the producer price means that the business revenue produced by hiring another worker drops, the before-tax wage must drop by a corresponding amount. Many have argued that such price and wage changes are implausible and that the central bank should "accommodate" a transitory change in the consumer price level by adjusting monetary policy so that it is consistent with constant producer prices and wages.

Source: Bull, Nicholas, and Lawrence B. Lindsey. 1996. "Monetary Implications of Tax Reforms." National Tax Journal 49.3 (September): 359-79.

The Price Level

When Britain adopted consumption taxation in 1979, the price level rose by the amount of the new tax. This jump in prices caused substantial disruption in the economy, partly because it stimulated further rounds of wage and price increases through indexation formulas that failed to exclude consumption taxes from the measured cost of living. Standard macroeconomic analysis suggests that the underlying cause of such a price effect is the contractual determination of wages in money terms. Under an income tax, the wage is set in pretax terms. Workers finance consumption out of what remains of their wages after paying taxes. Under a sales tax or a value-added tax (VAT), the wage is set on an after-tax basis. Workers use their entire wages for consumption and pay their consumption taxes as they consume. When an income tax is replaced by a sales tax or VAT, the wage bargain should be revised to lower the purchasing power of wages or by raising the prices of consumption goods. As a practical matter, the second always occurs.

One of the advantages of a flat tax or a personal cash-flow consumption tax is that both leave the wage bargain in pretax form. There is no disruptive jump in the price level. Unlike other effects I have discussed, the increase in the price level is not intrinsic to a consumption tax, but is the result of a particular choice about how to administer the tax.

Source: Potential Disruption from the Move to a Consumption Tax, by Robert E. Hall. The American Economic Review.

64 posted on 09/07/2005 7:30:49 PM PDT by Your Nightmare
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To: Always Right

Dear Always Right,

LOL. Even BOORTZ admits there is no simultaneous 25% pay increase and 23% price cut.

And yet, there are some who refuse to acknowledge reality.


sitetest


65 posted on 09/07/2005 7:31:32 PM PDT by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
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To: sitetest
LOL. Even BOORTZ admits there is no simultaneous 25% pay increase and 23% price cut. And yet, there are some who refuse to acknowledge reality.

Eventhough a fairtaxer posted this thread, I have a funny feeling they will not be bumping it. They will be running for cover. Lesson, read the WHOLE article before posting.

66 posted on 09/07/2005 7:35:04 PM PDT by Always Right
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To: Your Nightmare
Below is a complilation of quotes from various economists (including, ironically, the authors of the FairTax bill) that explain these assumptions in greater detail:

But pigdog and ancient_geezer says that is all bs....

67 posted on 09/07/2005 7:36:24 PM PDT by Always Right
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To: Nuc1

Dear Nuc1,

"Sorry, I don't agree with you, provided the constitutional amendment allowing income tax is repealed."

Well, it isn't.

The NRST legislation does not require repeal of the 16th amendment first to go into effect.

Rather, the legislation recommends the repeal.

Thus, the NRST, if passed, would be put into place, the current Internal Revenue Code would be repealed, but we'd still have the 16th amendment out there.

And we'd still need 2/3 of each House of Congress to pass a constitutional amendment, and 3/4 of the states to ratify it, to finally kill off the 16th amendment.

Which is pretty unlikely AFTER the politicians get to foist a new tax on us.

Pretty soon, for one reason or other, we'll hear calls to restore just a little itty-bitty income tax, only on the rich folks! They'll promise us NEVER to tax us little folks!

LOL.

It's deja vu, all over again!


sitetest


68 posted on 09/07/2005 7:37:13 PM PDT by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
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To: sitetest; Always Right; lewislynn
This is my favorite part:
"I pressed the point with Boortz and Linder. Boortz denies that the book intentionally overpromises. The introduction, he notes, emphasizes that "this book isn't about saving a penny in taxes." But he concedes that the book is confusing about this, and vows to correct it in later printings."
The book isn't "confusing" about this, it's flat out wrong!

Boortz is a joke. It's no wonder he hitched his wagon to the FairTax.
69 posted on 09/07/2005 7:45:24 PM PDT by Your Nightmare
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To: Always Right
Let's see if I understand your argument; I make 100K. My employer withholds 20K in income taxes of various types. The Fair Tax folks postulate that retail savings of about 20% will result from implementation of the Fair Tax. The Fair Tax folks believe that the savings stem from the elimination of BtoB taxes, compliance costs, accounting costs, excise taxes etc. You believe that the only way to realize a 20% retail savings is for my employer to take the 20% of my agreed upon salary withheld to pay income taxes to reduce their retail costs.

My employer wouldn't do that. I would receive all taxes not withheld in my take home pay. So...it seems the only issue really in dispute is the behavior of retail prices in response to enactment of the Fair Tax. I have seen FReeper estimates of 1-2% savings to 20-30% savings. I have no idea what the costs of compliance, legal, and hidden taxes are. However, they have some value and the savings may be passed on to consumers. Different businesses would have different costs and that may explain some of the variances.

While I usually agree with you I don't here.
70 posted on 09/07/2005 7:45:48 PM PDT by Nuc1 (NUC1 Sub pusher SSN 668)
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To: sitetest

Rob is going to be pleased. Basically a page of Money Magazine is devoted to explaining the major flaw in the fair tax rhetoric. I have been harping on this for years, but it was Dr. Jorgenson's confirmation that Rob originally got that really exploded it. Of course Money does not credit Rob, but we know where it came from.


71 posted on 09/07/2005 7:46:00 PM PDT by Always Right
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To: Nuc1
While I usually agree with you I don't here.

I have gone over this in details before, but let me give you a guestimate of what happens. Business save $350 Billion from their share of FICA taxes. Business will save another $200 Billion in Corporate taxes. Compliance costs savings results in another $100-150 Billion in savings. A total of roughly $700 Billion in savings to businesses. The remaining $1.3 Trillion in taxes is paid directly by individuals and will go in their pocket and will not be savings realized by businesses. The tax numbers can all be confirmed from the IRS website. Personal consumption in this country is roughly $10 Trillion. The $700 Billion in savings represents 7% of the total costs of goods. Prices can only come down 7% if employees pocket all their current paycheck. Add a 30% sales tax on to the goods, and prices go up 20%. A sales tax may or may not be a good thing, but as this article confirms, and my analysis shows, and as the FairTax researcher himself, Dr. Jorgenson says, the rhetoric the fair taxers spin is false.

So if you assume paychecks go up, which is what they would under this bill, you must admit prices will go up substantiall too. There is no other way.

72 posted on 09/07/2005 7:57:30 PM PDT by Always Right
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To: annelizly
One of the problems I have with the fairtax is this: With the implimenting of a huge federal sales tax do we still pay the state sales tax? if so, our sales tax could be more like 40%.

States don't have to conform to the Fair Tax but if they do they will find a much simpler tax structure much easier to implement. Not only will it cost less to enforce but the states will receive a fee for collecting the taxes. If a state chooses to conform to the federal tax base, they will raise the same amount of state sales tax with a lower tax rate – in some cases more than 50 percent lower – since the FairTax base is broader than their current tax base.

Also, I understand that we would only pay sales tax on items once, so a new car buyer would pay the tax, but the used car buyer wouldn't pay it at all. Who in their right mind would buy a new car?who would buy anything new that they could get used?

People don't stop buying new items under our current tax structure that has many hidden taxes. People will be more inclined to purchase new items under the Fair Tax that abolishes taxes for business to business transactions. Elimination of hidden taxes will lower prices and considerably lower compliance costs will lower prices further.

And second, I could see the employer who normal hires someone for 10$ an hour cutting his pay scale for any new hires to 7.50$. I think this could be a problem. I think that most places will pay the least they have to and if there are people willing to work for 7.50 then they won't pay 10$.

The one factor you forget is competition. It is highly unlikely all employers will pay the same wages. Some number of employers will be willing to pay more for experienced workers than other employers. Eventually the other employers will be forced to raise wages or make inferior products and provide inferior services. Those employers will never make it to the top or may go out of business. I suggest you read more Fair Tax information at www.fairtax.org

73 posted on 09/07/2005 8:00:35 PM PDT by Man50D
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To: Nuc1

The only way to get the 20% savings that the fair tax researcher got from embedded taxes, is if the $700 Billion in Business Savings is combined with the $1.3 Trillion in Individual Savings. That gives $2.0 Trillion, which IS 20% of Total Consumption. And that is how Dr. Jorgenson came up with the embedded tax number the fair taxers have been misapplying for years.


74 posted on 09/07/2005 8:03:40 PM PDT by Always Right
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To: shuckmaster

It's too bad that we have to listen to you. You have not read the fair tax book, nor have you ever given one minute of time to visit the fair tax website. You know not a whit of what you speak. The Fair Tax is THE ONLY plan out there that completely untaxes the poor. The big secret: it untaxes them but disallows their vote. Yeah. The 50% of the citizenry that now can vote itself largesse from the treasury will no longer be able to do that. The income tax will not exist and will not be a vote buying and lobbying scheme anymore. Is that bad?


75 posted on 09/07/2005 8:19:23 PM PDT by groanup (shred for Ian)
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To: Always Right
Do you realize the source for the 22% embedded taxes was the study done by Dr. Jorgenson, the very same Dr. Jorgenson the author of this article confirmed the flaw with. Fair Taxers are COMPLETELY discredited.

Do you realize Jorgenson never said that the 22% was composed solely of wages?

Have you read Jorgensons work?

Read the article carefully again. Even this smug author does not say that Jorgenson agreed that wages would come down by 20%. He simply said he asked him "about this" (without specifying the question OR the actual answer). Yet you take this MSM hack at his word the he single handedly discreted a list of economists as long as your arm?

Boy you are a gullible sort aren't you. Wages will not go down. They don't need to go down. You will get your entire paycheck, but not the employers half of Social Security.

76 posted on 09/07/2005 8:21:16 PM PDT by konaice
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To: xrp
Have you read Boortz's book or the Fair Tax Bill?

No, and I'm not going to.

77 posted on 09/07/2005 8:25:51 PM PDT by shuckmaster
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To: SolarisRocks
Because you have to compare apples to apples. If you are going to qote the income tax as one percentage and the fair tax as another, are you not being deceptive? The fair tax people didn't have to quote the rate the way they did they did it to be honest.

If you make 100,000 dollars and pay a 25% income tax rate you are left with 75,000 dollars right? If you spend 75,000 dollars and pay a sales tax of 25,000 dollars, well, that's more than 25%, right? Isn't it? 33 1/3 % (25,000 is 33 1/3% of 75,000). So who are you accusing of planting a false idea?

Wouldn't it be false if the fair tax were quoted another way?

78 posted on 09/07/2005 8:26:04 PM PDT by groanup (shred for Ian)
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To: shuckmaster
No, and I'm not going to.

Now there's a reply I can respect. LOL!

79 posted on 09/07/2005 8:27:48 PM PDT by groanup (shred for Ian)
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To: Modok
Wrong! The cost to the employer is the same under the fair tax or the current system.

I never said it wasn't, other than employers portion of fica.

The cost to the company is the same, but where the money actually goes is different. Withholding tax is exactly that: Money the employee was entitled to, but which our current tax system mandates the employer withhold from the employee and pay to the government. Same with fica.

The exception to this is the employers half of Fica. That is a flat out tax on business. A penalty for hiring someone.

Go back and re-read what I said. Call your English teacher if you are having a problem with the written word.

80 posted on 09/07/2005 8:30:00 PM PDT by konaice
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