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Posted on 10/31/2023 4:44:55 PM PDT by C19fan
Ohio State took the No. 1 spot in the first College Football Playoff rankings released Tuesday night, while two-time defending national champion Georgia is right behind at No. 2.
Michigan, under NCAA investigation amid sign stealing allegations, is No. 3, while Florida State is No. 4 and Washington is No. 5. Oregon is the top-ranked one-loss team in the rankings at No. 6, while Texas is one spot ahead of Alabama thanks to the strength of its head-to-head win over the Tide in September.
(Excerpt) Read more at espn.com ...
My take as well. I'm more impressed with Texas and Bama (each have one loss, but played 3 ranked opponents) than I am with Georgia (1 ranked opp) and Michigan (0 ranked opp).
Georgia's schedule strength is about to kick in high gear, though (about to play 3 ranked teams in a row, the possibly the SEC championship against a ranked Bama or LSU). So they have a chance to earn my respect.
Bama will finish the season with 4 ranked opponents (plus conference championship if they win out). Same for Texas, Oregon, Washington and Ole Miss. Any of those teams finish with only 1 loss against 5 ranked opponents, I'd count as a top 4 team.
I’d flip the Noles and Michigan, otherwise it looks good.
Yes, but they run will run into that powerhouse Purdue Boilermakers this weekend...
Go Boilers...
For lack of a better term the poll seems a little ‘woke’ if you will changing the guard for no good reason, note the AP poll doesn’t have any changes at the top. Granted the Wolverines have a weaker schedule so far this year but that is no reason to bump GA and UM.
Don’t much care at this point about the UM/OSU dust-up as that will get settled in the last game of the season like it always does. However if I were a GA fan I’d be really pissed off!
The rankings don’t mean much until after 11/25.
Then only one of MI and OSU will remain at the very top.
Also in Ohio and a super Buckeye fan and I agree with you. Sad to say I have watched that state up north and they are going to be a struggle. Ohio state team is good but still finding their strengths. Next year should be a fantastic year.
O-H
Supposedly the ranking is based on strength of schedule, results against common opponents, head to head results, wins against ranked opponents (in the prior week CFP) and the conference championships.
Between the undefeated teams, the strength of schedule is the only thing that applies at this point. They aren’t supposed to count average margin of victory. Therefore Michigan shouldn’t be in the top four.
With the one loss teams, Texas shouldn’t be ahead of
Oklahoma and since Alabama shouldn’t be ahead of Texas, Oklahoma would have to be 7th.
Ohio State has beaten two ranked teams. None of the other undefeated teams have. That’s why they are number 1. Michigan and Georgia have beaten zero ranked teams. Florida State has a win over a ranked team. Arguably FSU should be ranked second.
Go Ducks
Finally. But this is more about 1 and 3 both making the final rankings if OSU loses a close one to MI provided both are undefeated. Really big if, but OSU will have to 3 top 4 games to win the championship along with two other top 10 wins and a ranked conference game opponent.
They would more than deserve to win it all if they do.
Big IF.
Their first big test? 👍🏻👍🏻
There’s more attention here than is warranted to who is #1 through #3. This will sort itself out.
Who should be #4? And on what grounds? Florida State has by far the easiest path to winning out, and for this reason alone the easiest path to making the CFP. The committee is leaning into this, at least to some extent.
#5 Washington, meanwhile, is only the 2nd-best team in the PAC12 and it is not close. Washington has a last-minute home win against the best team, Oregon, and as such the committee has little choice but to put Washington in at #5. This is hugely problematic to the committee because Washington has peaked in any event and is unlikely to win out. The bottom line is that OREGON is nearly everyone’s choice to go to the CFP if any one of OSU, GA, MI or FSU falters.
I base all of this on the hypothesis that betting markets are quite efficient. The odds on FSU making the CFP are the best of any team (!!!) and yet the odds that it will end up champion ... not so much. FSU is a very, very good but not championship caliber team. The odds strongly indicate that they are a notch below Oregon.
Next, OSU — they have a relatively easy path the entire rest of the way, as most of their tough games are behind them. They win ugly ... perhaps ... but in retrospect the ND game was the only one where the final result was ever in question; the victory margins are not at all bad; and looking forward the point spreads show that gamblers see them as dominant.
WITH ONE EXCEPTION: THE OSU-MICHIGAN GAME. The UM is favored by 6 points and the Fanduel odds of Michigan rather than OSU making the CFPs, title game and national champion clearly indicate gamblers’ expectations that the UM is far superior. It is so freaking clear that the only conclusion one can draw is that the people who are putting down real money view the UM as the better of the two teams.
Georgia is Georgia. There’s not a lot to say about this team’s dominance. I will say, though, that people have written Alabama off way too early. They could give Georgia a very hard time in the SEC championship game. I take nothing away from GA — a great team — but neither GA nor MI is as invincible IMO as the gambling community thinks.
So ... for me ... 1T MI, 1T GA, 3 OSU, 4 Oregon or FSU.
Where would I put my money? Ohio State. They have just one obstacle in their way — Michigan — and all but one of their deficiencies has been resolved. The talent is best-in-country. No team has a better or more proven defense. The offense is rounding into form, with the RB room in better shape, the offensive line finally coming together, MHJr the best player in the country, and Ryan Day et al brilliant offensive schemers. Kyle McCord is the one remaining gaping hole and I see the chances as much better than even that other elements of that offense will cover up his shortcomings by enough to keep them very much in that OSU-MI game. I would not make OSU the favorite in that game, but the current odds are crazy irrationally lopsided in Michigan’s favor.
That team from Ohio was just a warm-up and an off-game for the Boilers...
If you would like more information about what’s happening in Oregon, please FReepmail me. Please send me your name by FReepmail if you want to be on this list.
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