Coronavirus in N.Y.: ‘Deluge’ of Cases Begins Hitting Hospitals

NY Times ^ | 03-20-2020 | Staff

[NRx]

New York State’s long-feared surge of coronavirus cases has begun, thrusting the medical system toward a crisis point.

In a startlingly quick ascent, officials reported on Friday that the state was closing in on 8,000 positive tests, about half the cases in the country. The number was 10 times higher than what was reported earlier in the week.

In the Bronx, doctors at Lincoln Medical and Mental Health Center say they have only a few remaining ventilators for patients who need them to breathe. In Brooklyn, doctors at Kings County Hospital Center say they are so low on supplies that they are reusing masks for up to a week, slathering them with hand sanitizer between shifts.

Some of the jump in New York’s cases can be traced to significantly increased testing, which the state began this week. But the escalation, and the response, could offer other states a glimpse of what might be in store if the virus continues to spread. Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo on Friday urged residents to stay indoors and ordered nonessential businesses to keep workers home.

State officials have projected that the number of coronavirus cases in New York will peak in early May. Both the governor and Mayor Bill de Blasio have used wartime metaphors and analogies to paint a grim picture of what to expect. Officials have said the state would need to double its available hospital beds to 100,000 and could be short as many as 25,000 ventilators.

As it prepares for the worst-case projections, the state is asking retired health care workers to volunteer to help. The city is considering trying to turn the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center in Manhattan into a makeshift hospital.

[kabar]

On March 21, Italy has t 53,578 cases versus 5,071 for the UK. Italy has 2,857 critical cases compared to the UK's 20. Italy has 4,825 deaths as of March 21 compared to the UK's 234.

Now lets look at the number of cases in the UK on March 7. There were 79. In Italy there were 5,833. Italy has experienced almost a ten times increase in cases. Using your projections, the UK should have 790 cases vice the 5,071. The mortality rates are far different.

I don't subscribe to your premise. Italy and the UK are different countries in so many ways. The UK's health system is far superior. Its population more disciplined, organized, and younger. When the dust settles, the data will prove that the UK is on a far different track than Italy. Probably similar to Germany's.

[DoodleBob]

I wanted to get your opinions on something I uncovered that may be a bright spot (so to speak) on where we are vs other countries. Yes, it's hard to smile when you're in the early days of battle, but give me a moment.

There is a concept in statistics called "standardization" where you take all numeric values that differ, e.g., like age in months and height in inches and weight in kg, and put them on a common scale. To wit: is the US with 25,489 cases yesterday worse off than Switzerland and her 6,575 cases or France and her 14,431 cases?

I pulled down the Confirmed Case data used by JH that is housed on GitHub and then pulled in the population counts by country (and state) from the UN (yea, I know...work with me). In the table below, I list select countries and US states' Confirmed Case Counts. I then 'standarize' that data by dividing each nation or state's Confirmed Case Count by the respective population, then I multiply that standardized value by the US' population, to put each nation/state's Confirmed Case Count on a standardized basis.

(special thanks to ShadowAce for the html sandbox)

Country/Region	Population (MM)	Confirmed Cases 3/21/2020	Standardized Cases 3/21/2020	Rank by Confirmed Cases Mar 21	Rank by Standardized Cases Mar 21
Austria	9.0	2,814	103,403	15	7
Belgium	11.5	2,815	80,275	14	11
California	39.5	1,364	11,360	19	21
China	1,433.8	81,421	18,687	1	19
Denmark	5.8	1,420	80,957	18	10
Florida	21.5	659	10,097	21	23
France	65.1	14,431	72,912	8	12
Germany	83.5	22,213	87,521	6	8
Hubei	58.5	67,800	381,378	2	1
Iran	82.9	20,610	81,796	7	9
Italy	60.6	53,578	291,175	3	2
Korea, South	51.2	8,799	56,524	12	14
Massachusetts	6.9	525	24,859	23	18
New Jersey	8.9	1,327	49,162	20	15
New York	19.5	11,710	198,079	10	4
Norway	5.4	2,118	129,574	16	6
Pennsylvania	12.8	396	10,179	24	22
Spain	46.7	25,374	178,654	5	5
Sweden	10.0	1,763	57,804	17	13
Switzerland	8.6	6,575	251,834	13	3
Texas	29.0	581	6,594	22	24
United Kingdom	67.5	10,084	49,138	11	16
US	329.1	25,489	25,489	4	17
US excl NY	329.1	13,779	14,645	9	20

Well..the US, with her fourth highest number of Confirmed Cases at the end of March 21, 2020 is actually 17th on this list when you adjust for the population!

Further, if you remove New York (which is accounting for about half of the US' growth over the past three days), the US is the 20th lowest out of these 24 select countries/states.

China gets a pickup because of it's huge population, but Hubei remains at the top, as does Italy.

Perhaps most shocking is Switzerland: she looks like a standardized disaster, with a size-adjusted 250k Confirmed Case load. Similarly, New York State on a size-adjusted basis looks like Italy and Switzerland. In fact, Europe looks pretty bad as a group - except for the United Kingdom.

Now, it's not the first inning for every country; it's like the top of the 8th in China while it's the top of the third (or something like that) in the US and probably the bottom of the 6th in Italy. Thus, some enterprising smart Deplorable could/should set all countries data at the same 'starting point.' That, however, is pretty hard to do since each nation's starting point and progression is unique.

If I'm right, then the economic and human wreckage that's overwhelming Europe and which has overwhelmed Asia is starting in America. But we seem to be in a relatively better position on a size-adjusted basis. Maybe that's because we've been 'attacked' later in the process. It's also worth noting, as I showed, that the major areas and cities seem to be getting hit harder than other areas: look at New York and New Jersey vs Texas or Pennsylvania or even California. My guess is those areas that light up at night will be hit relatively harder:

It's also worth noting...

...I'm just sayin'...

Seriously, I am not wishing harm to my fellow man, regardless of their views. We are Americans, and like after 9/11 today I stand with my countrymen, shoulder-to-shoulder. Today, I will pray and watch/listen to church service on TV. I will pray for my fellow man, regardless of race, creed, national origin, or if they are Patriots fans. I will pray for wisdom for those who are ignorant, and for calm for those who are hysterical.

And I will pray that the US comes out of this mess, stronger than ever, in order for America to lead the world back to peace and prosperity. Domine, non sum dignus ut intres sub tectum meum, sed tantum dic verbo, et sanabitur anima mea.

[Pollster1]

100% correct, from taking per capita rates to “Lord, I am not worthy,” although you are at least as worthy as any of us.

We are early in the spread of this, it’s primarily urban, and we’re hitting the bigger numbers while we possess the knowledge gained in those countries that didn’t block Chinese travelers to stop this Chinese virus (I love saying that because it freaks out far-left lurkers). If we can just confirm a treatment (such as quinine and antibiotics, or an anti-viral), we can save lives, reopen the country, and stop the economic devastation.

[gas_dr]

I am following worldodometer. I am going to say right now there is either error or manipulation manipulation on the New York numbers. The reason why I say this is yesterday prior to 2400 Greenwich meantime New York was reporting 3600 cases they only reported 19 on the overall tally when you scan back to you yesterday if you take the 1700 missing cases in extrapolate them to today New York looks like it’s about level I think that there is a data integrity issue here it may just be the vicissitudes of how it resets around 2400 Greenwich meantime but that is very spurious in how it is affecting the overall data between yesterday and today I will continue to watch this closely but in less things rapidly changed multiple countries remain on a downward curve in terms of

[Disestablishmentarian]

According to the link below, at this hour there are only 795 cases in the whole U.S. in serious or critical condition (along with 400 deaths).

So even if 500 of these are in NYC, how could this be overwhelming the system?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[gas_dr]

Thanks gogeo
I will post new numbers tonight

[fastrock]

There’s 10k hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin Z-paks that’s being made available to med teams in NY starting tomorrow. It’s going to be a large “live” testing of the drug combo. Pray that it is effective.

FDA has approved 1/2 face respirators, generally used by those in painting operations, for health care workers. These are the masks that two canisters, are reusable and there are millions in warehouses threw out the states with plenty of canisters.

FDA has also approved the Wuhan virus test that can be self administered and test completed in 45min. The equipment for the tests is widely available (5000) in US. This is prob the best thing FDA has done for health care workers and patients.