What a bunch of nonsense. This guy has no idea what it actually costs to build the Model 3. He is taking the cost of the Model S and making wild assumptions about how much differences between the Model S and the Model 3 might cost.
A more rational analysis would be bottom up. Figure what the major components cost and go from there. The Model S “cost” is still amortizing R & D and tooling costs. $30K per vehicle ! The actual components and labor cost nowhere near $81K to build each new unit. The 50KWH battery pack in Tesla vehicles is a $12K item. The electric motor is a $4000 item. The high voltage controller is a $3000 item.
Figure the non drive-train components for a Tesla Model 3 is similar to other cars somewhere in the $8K ballpark and add the electric specific components and you have a $27K max cost to build a steel Model 3. R&D costs are not only already paid for by the Model S, but the Model 3 has huge numbers of pre-orders which means that any small additional R&D and tooling costs will be amortized over many more vehicles than they were for the Model S or X.
If you are comfortable with your SWAG estimate, the old line is; got a hunch, buy a bunch!