If we were to take the 7-11 cup poll seriously, we have to recognize it is biased. They don’t have enough 7-11s in many of the red states to include those states in their poll. In 2012, Obama won the 7-11 cup poll by 16 points, and the election by 4 points. Thus, a 14 point bias. Currently, Clinton is running 2 points ahead of Trump. Taking bias into account, this means Trump is going to win by 12 points.
Excuse me, Obama won the 2012 cup poll by 18 points. The rest is correct as stated.