OTOH, I'm not going to dismiss things out of hand because this has been the one poll that has had Trump consistently ahead for the past month.
I'd be something of a hypocrite if I suddenly started to badmouth it as soon as it turned south. Plenty of time for things to swing around.
Ten thousand people everywhere and every time Trump goes somewhere, versus a couple of hundred people including her staff when Hillary speaks.
That’s the true poll.
Yet people say the few hundred for Hillary, or the few hundred in these polls, are a more accurate measurement?
Bosh.
The poll corruption is immense. If a poll accurately correlates with Trump’s turnouts, and then suddenly finds Hillary in close competition - or, absurdly, ahead - with no corresponding actual increase in speaking arena turnouts, then it’s logical to presume the poll was finally bought off by the Rats.
A poll is only as good as its pollster’s assumptions, and all of the polls this year, as far as I can tell, are assuming this election will look like 2012. I think they’re wrong. If a pollster’s vision of what the electorate will look like is correct, his poll ends up being accurate. If not, the poll is off.
This poll, like most these days, releases very little of its internals, but I have reason to believe that they are way oversampling blacks. The movement of the last few days, indeed, the movement each time Trump has dropped in this poll, has been almost entirely due to huge fluctuations in black support, while white support has remained stable. If fluctuations in black support can move a poll with a sample this large, there are a LOT of blacks in the sample. Again, in 2008 and 2012 the electorate looked very different than it usually does. To assume it will look the same when a black man is not on the ballot is erroneous.
Having said that, I’m not completely dismissing the movement in this poll. Even poorly designed polls can tell you something about voter movement, even though the absolute numbers are off. Trump has lost a little ground, but not enough to lose the election. He’s still up, just not as much as he was.