An Update from EIB Hurricane Central

RUSH: We are in south Florida. We are right in the -- well, it's tough to say right now. I remember when I was growing up in Missouri, when there was hurricane news, and, by the way, it wasn't nearly as widely reported back then, obviously, as it is today. We had local news and that was it. That's the only way you learned about a hurricane, the local news, the network news went down there and the reporters stand out there in the middle of it warning you what you shouldn't do.

(interruption) I've been handed a secret new, what is this? Yeah, but this is the guy they're not gonna prosecute, right? "Government contractor arrested for stealing top secret data." I'm thinking of something else. There's another case the DOJ threw out because it involves the Democrats. Well, I'll get to this in due course.

Growing up, hurricane news was irrelevant. We lived in Missouri, hurricanes never got there except their aftermath, which was nothing more than rainstorms. It's not that we were unconcerned, but the attitude is much different if you're not gonna be affected by one. Moving to Florida in 1997, it's stunning how rapidly my attitude about hurricanes changed. When you have property right along potential paths of hurricanes, it changes your perspective on everything.

My point here is, let me give a little hurricane update. I realize many of you don't care. You're not gonna be affected by it, and not that you don't care, I mean, but you don't have the personal investment in it that people in the path do. So I'm just asking you to indulge me for a while. This has been a serious storm from the get-go and I have perfected being able to analyze how hurricanes are reported. I've become an expert in spotting the politics in hurricane tracking and hurricane forecasting.

And by that I mean the National Hurricane Center is part of the National Weather Service which is part of the Commerce Department, which is part of the Obama administration, which, by definition, has been tainted, just like the DOJ has. Obama is actually telling people that global warming, that climate change is having a very profound impact on the war in Syria. It's patently absurd. And there's now a story from the Pew Center for People & the Press showing that a majority of Americans do not believe the consensus of scientists predicting that there is climate change. Well, the left doesn't like that, so they keep ramming it down our throats.

So in hurricane tracking and hurricane forecasting, I've been able to spot where I think they might be playing games because it's in the interests of the left to have destructive hurricanes, because then they can blame it on climate change, which they can desperately continue to try to sell. The problem for them is, after Hurricane Katrina, remember Algore goes out there and all these people start saying, "This is just the beginning. I mean, the tip of the iceberg. We're gonna have these kind of hurricanes every year, numerous hurricanes like that and they're gonna be more destructive than Katrina, and it's all because we've got climate change."

And then what happened? We had 11 years of no hurricanes, 11 straight years, no major hurricanes striking land in the United States, which just bores a hole right through the hole climate change argument. So over the recent past, five or six years, whenever there has been a hurricane, I think I've been able to spot when they try to make it look like it might hit a population center, because they want people to think this way: Hurricane reported, "Ah, must be climate change." They want that thought process. And one of the ways you can bring that about is to try to convince people that a given hurricane that may pop up is aiming right for a major population center.

It's kind of like UFOs. You know, UFOs never land where there are smart people. UFOs always land in trailer parks. You ever notice that? UFOs land in swamps, they land out where nobody lives. They don't go to MIT. They don't go to Harvard. Well, a hurricane hitting a swamp is worthless to the global warming crowd. A hurricane has to hit a population center. Well, this hurricane there has been no politics. This is a serious, bad storm. This is a Category 4. The winds right now -- well, it's a Category 3 right now, but by the time this goes through the Bahamas and tracks up the East Coast of Florida, Category 4, which means sustained winds of 130 and gusts up to 160.

Now, we've lived through Category 2s here, and they are devastating. You lose power and you lose your phone lines and trees are blown over and the roads are impassable, and there's some home damage, depending on the construction of the home and how old it is. It's not pretty. Category 1 even can feature some of that. Category 4, like is headed for the East Coast of Florida right now could be catastrophic if it comes ashore.

Now, here's the general rule of thumb that we veterans in south Florida and all along Hurricane Alley have learned. If a hurricane is not going to strike land, but if it heads in your direction, the rule of thumb is you don't want the eye of the storm, which is the most intense, you don't want it closer than 50 miles. If it gets inside that 50-mile range, you're close to the hurricane-force winds and the possibility of storm surge. Storm surge, think tsunami. Not a tsunami, but I want you to think what you think a tsunami is. This giant wave running at you, ready to swallow you up and drown you for life. That's storm surge.

Storm surge can be anywhere from 10 feet to 30 feet, and depending on how close you are to the beach, storm surge can wipe you out. Now, it's really rare for the eye of a hurricane to hit a specific spot. Remember Hurricane Andrew was a Category 5, and it devastated Homestead, Florida. But just up the road in Miami, there wasn't much damage. Go to Ft. Lauderdale, even up here in Palm Beach, there wasn't much damage. If any, there were strong winds, but nothing that was devastating or even catastrophic.

The eye of the hurricane, most of that, that's what you don't want to hit you. If it's over the ocean and traveling anywhere near you, you don't want it to get any closer than 50 miles. Right now, according to the forecast track at 11 a.m., the eye of this storm will pass 54 miles from us here. (interruption) What about a baby? No, no. We don't know yet, by the way. This is just the forecast track. The models, they run them every six hours, at different times.

There are models that have the hurricane coming ashore at Palm Beach. There are models that have it coming ashore at Cape Canaveral. The hurricane center has to take the consensus of the models and then apply their own thought to it. And for the past couple of days they've had this hurricane roughly tracking up the Florida East Coast 50 miles offshore. Last night at 11 they had it coming within 45 miles. That was 11 p.m. That's a serious wake-up call. Give a.m. today was the new one, and it's back to 54 miles

But realize, it's still guesswork. It's as estimated good guesswork as they can get. There's so many things that govern the movement of a hurricane. What's governing this one is a massive ridge of high pressure in the southern Atlantic that is preventing it from turning east, and that high-pressure area is said to be expanding slowly which is what's pushing it closer to the Florida coastline.

Now, that ridge is going to be replaced by one further north, and many of the models have this hurricane doing a 365 and coming right back at us next week from the east. There are more models now showing this happening. Last week it was one or two outliers. Now five or six or more of these models are showing this thing doing a 360, you know, going up to Wilmington, North Carolina, and making a turn and coming back down and then hitting somewhere on the east side of Florida, so a second pass.

Nobody predicting a direct hit yet, but each track, the next report will be at five in the afternoon, and there will be a model run at two p.m., so you take the two p.m. model run -- I'll be doing this during the top-of-the-hour break at two o'clock -- two o'clock model run, you compare it to the eight a.m. model run and the 11 a.m. hurricane center forecast and try to guess what they're gonna say at five p.m., which is what we do. Well, it's what I do, and then everybody asks me what's happening.

I do all the computations here. And there hasn't been any indication that that high-pressure ridge over the southern Atlantic is gonna weaken. If it would weaken, then the hurricane would turn more northeasterly sooner and not threaten the Florida or the southeastern U.S. coast. This is going to go right -- the current track so close to Nassau, that it may go right over the water slide at Atlantis, the hotel out there on Paradise Island.

It's a Category 4, and Obama's right, he's out there warning everbody, this is a serious, serious storm. It really is. It's hit Haiti, so it's an opportunity for the Clinton Foundation, once again, to enrich themselves by another trip down there. But they are otherwise occupied with the presidential campaign. So that's why we have all kinds of contingencies set up for this program for tomorrow and Friday. The first objective is for me to be able to do the program, which requires that I decamp, that I leave, and go to parts unknown in order to be able to do the program.

Barring that, we have guest hosts set up. So we're undecided even now what tomorrow's gonna bring, but it looks like, if things don't change, they're gonna issue an evac order here on Palm Beach and I would think they'd raise the bridges so that nobody can cross the bridge and get on to the island during the storm. I haven't heard of that happening yet, so don't anybody -- I'm just wild guessing on this. But they've done it for lesser storms, raised the draw bridges. There are two of them primary, three, actually, that get you onto the island here, and they raise those, and you can't get off, either, if you're still here. And you can't get on if you're not here.

And with Category 2 we lose phones, we lose power. This is Category 4. We're okay if it stays 50 or more miles -- well, we're not gonna be okay, but it's not gonna be catastrophic if it stays enough offshore or if it weakens. But there's no sign of weakening. And it's not moving very fast, which allows it to strengthen, so that's a, sorry, but a long and circuitous description of where we are with this thing. And I just personally find it fascinating because so many years ago I couldn't have cared less 'cause it was never gonna affect me, and now it's such a dominant thing.

And we've really been as lucky as we can be the last seven years, not even a threat, there haven't even been any storms formed that were anywhere near here, and nobody thought there were gonna be this year, based on the way the year started. Now we've got this baby out there. There's another hurricane also that is northeast of us here that's wandering and meandering. It's not a threat to anything, but it could have been a meteorological effect on this one in terms of sucking it outta here, which would be a great thing to happen.

RUSH: Okay. Now, the hurricane is beginning to be seen now. Satellite views, radar views beginning, it's coming in to view now, which means we don't have to depend on the hurricane center or other locations to tell us where it is and how it's moving. It's on a couple websites where I could actually see the thing moving. It's just off the northwest coast of Cuba, and it's tracking towards us.

It's a big mama, and it's a defined eye. The eye wall disappeared as it traveled over Haiti and far eastern Cuba. So, yeah, northeastern Cuba it's over. So we can now see it. That means a whole new type of anal attention being paid to it.

RUSH: I'm just looking here... I shouldn't do this 'cause I'm not a meteorologist. I shouldn't do this. So I'll just do it but predicate it by saying I'm not a meteorologist. I'm not trained at all. I'm looking at the latest model run. I told you there's gonna be a model run at two o'clock. I'm looking at it, and a lot of these models have shifted way west. Some of them right up the middle of the state, a lot of them. The five o'clock forecast is gonna be interesting. I don't expect they're gonna change the track much because not all models are equal, and this is a real spaghetti model.

I mean, there must be 25 or 30 models here, and it's impossible to track each one of them individually. But there's a whole lot more model activity over the peninsula of Florida than there was at eight a.m. today. Well, they don't have it coming ashore yet. The official track doesn't have it... The closest to coming ashore just south of Cape Canaveral on the 11 o'clock. The next official forecast will be at five Eastern time. The models, as I say...

They just reported the latest model It runs at two o'clock, 45 minutes ago, and I'm telling you this model run looks different, drastically different. There's still a whole bunch of models right on the forecast track. That hasn't changed. But a lot of them have shifted way west. Some of them are now over to Tampa. But I shouldn't say that. I'm not... I'm not a meteorologist. Nothing official here. I'm just telling you what I'm looking at. You'd see the same thing if you saw the model runs that I'm looking at.

RUSH: I got a quick question. We have this hurricane out there. This hurricane's 150 miles away. Let's say 200. And they don't know where it's going. Why is there not a consensus of scientists that can look at this hurricane and tell us right now where it's going? Because we have a consensus of scientists that can tell us what the sea levels and the temperature's gonna be fifty years from now.

The climate change global warming hoaxers, they claim there's a consensus of scientists that we must accept and agree with, because it is incontrovertibly true that there is gonna be rising sea levels and rising temperatures to the point that the planet may not even be habitable in 50 years. They've been saying this, by the way, since 1980.

Why isn't there a similar consensus of scientists that can tell us where this freaking hurricane is gonna go? Is it a reasonable question, or am I being unreasonable here? It's a rather brilliant question, actually, in terms of the point that it makes.

Tell Hillary, she needs to be the FIRST responder after the event, she needs to BEAT Trump who will be there to hand out blankets, and help the people. She needs to be there with her photographers and get the picture, and the video sound bites...then she can go back to raising funds.

The climate always changes, and I think we should embrace it. Think of all the extra acreage to be tilled if Greenland, Antarctica, Canada and Siberia get warmer.

“...Obama is actually telling people that global warming, that climate change is having a very profound impact on the war in Syria. It’s patently absurd. And there’s now a story from the Pew Center for People & the Press showing that a majority of Americans do not believe the consensus of scientists predicting that there is climate change. ...”

It proves what a bull$hitter that arrogant pos is. To bad he fools many with it.

Bingo.... the difference in extrapolation is so far off the chart that it makes Rush's point patently obvious. The issue always is uncertainty with the models.... something that the model makers never want to deal with. The graphs at these two links show that for the past two decades, actual temperature is below virtually ALL the models that IPCC looked at. Why is that? 1. Is it all just a plan to deliberately mislead? 2. Are they using the same basic 'science principles' but there is a fundamental error in their approach (and they are all caught by it)? 3. Or perhaps climate is just way too complex to think that one could ever hope to project out beyond a very short period of time due to the randomness of it all? https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/25/climate-models-dont-work/ https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/17/temperature-models-vs-temperature-reality-in-the-lower-troposphere/

Just a personal story from Hurricane Gloria many years ago—when I lived in southern Maine.

You know why I remember it—it was just a Cat 1 storm but the eye went right over my house. After the eye hit some big gusts of wind took out the three biggest trees in my yard.

One monster tree blocked the driveway. The other two took out the utility connection to the house and then crashed on the house.

I had no power for ten days—and that was a lousy cat 1.

RUSH: I got a quick question. We have this hurricane out there. This hurricane’s 150 miles away. Let’s say 200. And they don’t know where it’s going. Why is there not a consensus of scientists that can look at this hurricane and tell us right now where it’s going? Because we have a consensus of scientists that can tell us what the sea levels and the temperature’s gonna be fifty years from now.

The climate change global warming hoaxers, they claim there’s a consensus of scientists that we must accept and agree with, because it is incontrovertibly true that there is gonna be rising sea levels and rising temperatures to the point that the planet may not even be habitable in 50 years. They’ve been saying this, by the way, since 1980.

Why isn’t there a similar consensus of scientists that can tell us where this freaking hurricane is gonna go? Is it a reasonable question, or am I being unreasonable here? It’s a rather brilliant question, actually, in terms of the point that it makes.

It is a brilliant question, Rush, and one I intend to use.

Stay safe, my friend.

I don’t know what time Limbaugh made this statement but the very latest track of this storm is showing it taking a sharp Eastward turn out into the Atlantic.

The major models (Euro, GFS, CMC, NAVGEM) all show it retrograding; making some degree of southward motion like it's trying to make a loop.

Whereas before the models showed a northeast turn out into the Atlantic, The 18Z GFS shows it weakening and looping back around to toward the Bahamas at tropical storm strength, then Cuba and the Yucatan channel. Possibly because of a Fujiwara interaction with a forecast low center to the east of it. Crazy.

Global Warming is the cause of the war in Syria?? Okay, I’ve heard everything now. Obama, did you know central New England - the Connecticut River valley was a lake called Lake Hitchcock back in the ice age time. Prehistoric Lake Connecticut was another lake, what happened to them? Answer, the earth changed.

Well the Clinton Global Crime Initiative Foundation got out ahead of this one. Sources have stated that the foundation, suffering from bad publicity after the Haitian earthquake aid non-performance, have FEDEXed, overnight, 300 of Hillary’s latest book to inspire those in Haiti who have lost everything.

During hurricane Allison that ended up over Houston in 1989, during a lull in the winds, I climbed up on our roof to put some plastic over an area that had lost shingles. The wind had been blowing up to 60 mph for hours, but suddenly it stopped and there was clear blue sky. As suddenly as the wind stopped, it began blowing again in the opposite direction while I was still on the roof. I had to spread eagle and execute a sliding decent towards my ladder to keep from breaking my neck. I did get safely down, but I had truly just experienced the ‘eye of the storm’.

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