If the gain for Hillary (or drop for Trump) is valid information, what the hell happened to explain the move?
(considering she’s not doing anything, and Trump didn’t say or do anything PCI)
The pollsters can’t get people to pick up the phone and take their polls. None of the polls are accurate. Period.
Some of the daily variation is simply due to randomness. Does every move in the stock market have significance?
I assume your question is about the LA Times tracking poll and not about what I posted above. If I were to guess, she just got a good sample for a day (or two). Tracking polls tend to fluctuate more than others. Have to see the trend over a few days before we can come to some conclusion.
Regardless, I believe the race is essentially tied and if I wanted to be generous to Hillary, she probably has a 1-2 point lead. Trump needs to be up by 2 points in the RCP average by election day to win this. Certainly doable, considering where we were 3 weeks ago.
Because I believe that the race is essentially tied. LA Times has it right. It’s an even race with both in the low 40’s. PPD poll also has Trump up by a slight amount, and the UPI/CVoter poll will be even on Monday (Hillary +2). I would expect Reuters to show a tied race or Trump up by a point or less.
This is very bad news for Hillary. 100% name recognition, $100M in advertising, a free pass from the media, and all sorts of “experience” and she’s in the low 40’s and can’t shake Trump. Even better, these polls probably are still using 2012 electorate break outs, but if you read the write-up on this poll it is absolutely devastating for Hillary.