CO2 from underwater volcano activity is now speculated to dwarf human CO2 emissions. The warm equatorial water in 1998 was due to El Nino. And conservation of mass and energy imply that if one area warmed, another must have cooled. Watch ice dramatically increase this winter in the upper northern hemisphere. As an El Nino in 2015/16 caused our current fading El Nino atmospheric conditions.
A geologist friend of mine has said something similar for years. But that “conservation of energy” rule only applies to closed systems, mind you. An outside source, say...THE SUN...or core heat of Earth, could turn any theory right upside down... my best guess is that the overall complexity of the system still defies “computer models”. (All of that and a quarter will buy you 15 minutes at the parking meter...in a cheap town...)