And Clare Malone is a senior editor there? Must be Senior as in High School Senior.
These are the opinion makers?? God are we in trouble!
Thanks for this...
When things seem too good to be true, they probably are...
The internet is a "her?"
“Think about what that means: The website is saying that a large number of professional pollsters who make their living trying to provide accurate information — and have a good record of doing so — are all deliberately biasing the polls and aren’t correcting for it. Like many conspiracy theories, that seems implausible.”
Like Journalists. Making a living trying to provide accurate information and have a good record but somehow ALL tell the same lie and report in bias fashion
Honestly, I don’t pay much attention to polls. I can control my vote tho, I hope so anyway.
Ignore all media
Get Out The Vote
So, a very liberal Nate Silver site is trying to debunk another poll analysis site. It sounds much like the “professional journalists” acting shocked that anyone would accuse them of bias, except now it’s the “professional pollsters” acting shocked.
Just remember, from the NY primary to Indiana, Trump over-performed his Real Clear Politics polling average by 9 percentage points. Even the Wisconsin primary, one of his worst showings, he over-performed his RCP polling average by .6 of a percentage point. What makes the “professional pollsters” doing the polling now think they are getting it right now when they obviously got it wrong during the primaries?
“Professional pollsters” are not above political bias any more than “professional journalists” are.
Funny/odd that 538 is even concerned with it...
And Clare Malone is a senior editor there? Must be Senior as in High School Senior.
These are the opinion makers?? God are we in trouble!
I just remember from 2012 hoping that the polls were wrong and that unskewedpolls.com was right. Hillary should be crushed this year but when you have so many voters who are stupid, ignorant, etc, what can you do?
Go get ‘em Trump!
Someone needs to hack Diebold, and the spanish company SCYTL and find out what they are up to.
This is like asking the question of how or why something can come out of nothingness....so many conflicting agendas in the media & the culture concerning this election. Here’s my 2 cents: in this election Trump has 2 things Romney did not have in 2012 IMO: 1: Trump has “voter enthusiasm”...this enthusiasm gap shows in how Trump over-performs in all his elections as opposed to what his polls say. 2: Trump has a “Bradley Effect”...people simply will not tell pollsters or ever friends & family that they will be voting for Trump.
These 2 things, that I believe are in play, make this election difficult to poll & give Trump an upside that can’t be nailed down. Is it enough for him to win....who knows ? But he’s certainly not down in the polls like is being reported, especially by the likes of Silver who has been dead wrong about Trump all year long.
They are propping the market. Never in history were markets going so high when growth was so low or negative. I believe McCain also lost the elections right when he was doing good because surprise surprise, they decided to show the bad accounting of real estate at the last minute.
Not this “unskewed polls” stuff again.
Four years ago, Unskewed Polls was making much the same claim. We saw how that turned out.
Tried to get to longroom but could only get “website unavailable” messages.Is it gone?
See, this is where Zogby went wrong. Nate has a cadre of Millenials working for him specifically for accountability laundering...Nate screws up? 'Hey you, what's your name, girl with the nose ring - write a nasty bit about LongRoom'
Reuters has already admitted to changing the way they will poll in the last two weeks.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN10910T
This has never been done before. Insiders are saying it’s because the polls showed Trump with a 15 point advantage.
Now if you do not believe that then just look at the actual polls in the articles. This takes a little more research, but what you will find is that they are now polling 15% more Democrats than Republicans even thought Democratic voting is close to an all time low and Republican voting is at an all time high. Trump won the nomination with the most primary votes for an RNC candidate ever. This is even though there were 17 candidates.
It’s no secret that Sanders lost 11 States to Hillary’s Super Delegates. In other words. In other word the DNC Super Delegates threw out the Will of the DNC voter. Hillary did not win it fair and square. She stole it via the Super Delegate. Plus Hillary could barely get 100 people at a rally while Sanders had thousands.
Now that we have the nominees. Trump has thousands while Hillary can’t even get 300 people in Orlando as the DNC nominee. At this stage she should have a minimum of 10,000 as the DNC nominee. .
Hillary is NOT popular at all. Trump should early win. The media and the Globalist know this. Hence, why they are throwing everything at Trump including the kitchen sink.
Must be over target since the long knives are out to,hunt down the messenger
Imagine the media being outraged by a “ biased “ social media web site....
The polls do not have a “good track record.” Their “final” numbers are outside the margin of error about half the time, and biased against conservatives. Ditto, the “raw” exit polls (the media only release exit polls after they’ve massaged them to match the actual numbers). And, there’s a lot of movement from mid year to election, with a strong tendency toward the conservative. Finally, there is a troublesome difference between “anonymous” polls (internet and robo-caller polls) versus live-caller polls.
Going back to 2012, the “unskewed” polls were predicated on a similar partisan mix that year to prior years. A similar argument could have been made as to the demographic mix. So, the unskewed polls were really “what if”? What if turn-out is not what is being projected in the polls? This was a valid exercise early during the process. But, pollsters have methods to differentiate “likely” voters from others. Going into the last week, Romney looked good. Then, Superstorm Sandy hit, and the President looked Presidential. The numbers moved. Plus, it didn’t help that Romney lost the third debate, having won the first, and gaining a draw in the second. If Romney had at least gained a draw in the third debate and/or if Superstorm Sandy hadn’t hit, Romney would have been elected President and the poll unskewers would have looked brilliant.
In any case, 2012, like 2004, was close.
The fundamentals say that the challenger should win big this year. But, the opposition vote is badly split with the Libertarian drawing high single-digits and a lot of Republican-type voters undecided. There is a lot more upside for Trump than for Hillary. My advise to all Trumpeters is stay focused and Get Out the Vote.
a large number of professional pollsters who make their living trying to provide accurate information
The above statement is not true. Nate Silver himself has argued the other side. Professional pollsters are motivated by the desire to get hired by the media and by professional politicians. Professional pollsters overlap campaign consultants and those campaign consultants are motivated by the desire to get hired.
Both the media and professional politicians have demonstrated that they are willing to pay big bucks to be told what they want to hear. Jeb Bush is the best example of that. A cursory look at 2010 and 2014 elections would tell any moron that Jeb was not the guy in 2016 primary. But pollsters told Jeb&Co what they wanted to hear and got paid big bucks for lying.
I’d compare in to ads on TV that say: 3 out of 4 doctors use our product...when what the ad really says is: We sent a sample of our product to 3 out of 4 doctors.