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I agree on the polls being badly off in 2010 and 2014, but I’m getting concerned-—not that they show Trump losing but that he’s just not gaining any ground. I know they are weighting these in crazy ways, and I know the goal is to depress the base. These are also designed to drive a wedge between the “I guess I’ll vote for Trump” people and those who would just stay home.

LET ME BEGIN BY STATING A PROPOSITION: FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES THE REPUBLICANS HAVE NOT WON A DECISIVE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SINCE 1988, and then only because of Reagan’s coattails and Lee (Donald Trump Jr.) Atwater.

I THINK Trump knows the media and polls would be against him. He has stopped talking entirely about polls, contrary to what he did in the primaries, even good ones. I think he planned for this eventuality. So-—just me, no info from the Trump “insiders”-—I’m just guessing this has been the strategy all along:

1) Expect to get slaughtered in the media, but at least use the media to stay in the public eye (good or bad) and keep name recognition through the dog days of summer.

2) Begin the “traditional” campaign effort in early August. As you see, Trump “only” now is rolling out his state campaign apparatus. Traditionally this is a big mistake. The “pros” will tell us that you needed these people there since February. Maybe. Didn’t do McLame or Minion much good, did it? In fact, the more I looked at this, we really haven’t won a decisive election since 1988. Bush won two squeakers, one by 237 votes, one by 114,000 votes. In the second case, he won only because he got the benefit of being at war and people wanted to give him a chance to win it. So in essence, the GOP “pros” have to go back to G. H. W. Bush to actually have anything to brag about.

3) I think Trump’s unconventional campaign of not spending money yet involves a massive, massive blitz beginning early October. I think he is counting on a new campaign approach that doesn’t see much firming up before then.

4) I still haven’t really perceived what he sees as the value of the mass rallies. He has to know that in terms of total voter turnout, they are a drop in the bucket. But they do get supporters energized. They do keep him in REGIONAL news without the filters. (Again, based on polls, is this working? We don’t have proof). He has to know that Cankles’ people-—energized or not, will trudge to the polls to vote in Nov. out of fear of losing their free stuff.

SO THAT SAID, I think Trump does have a plan. I don’t know what it is, but it’s clearly not that of the previous (in essence) six losing strategies. It involves these rallies, his use of social media, the high turnout of the previously disengaged voter. That is quite doable, but very risky because after all, these people are, well, “disengaged.” That’s why I think he doesn’t really care all that much about the help of the GOP establishment and organization, because they wouldn’t reach these people anyway.

I DO have a single statement that I think Trump could use sometime in early Sept. (but not too early, lest the power wear off) that would win a number of “concerned” voters who might be inclined to support him . . . but I’m saving that one.