National Debt On Track To Hit 141% Of GDP As Outlook Worsens -- CBO

Investor's Business Daily ^ | 7/12/2016 | John Merline

[IBD editorial writer]

The nation's long-term fiscal picture has grown considerably more dire over the past year, according to the latest forecast from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, driven mainly by out-of-control spending.

The CBO now expects federal debt held by the public to reach 141% of the nation's GDP by 2046, assuming that current policies remain in place. That's up sharply from last year's forecast of 111%, and would be the highest level of debt in the nation's history.

[kabar]

Jiminy, what do you think we’re only adding old people? No, we’ve not added near enough people.

Population of the US by decade:

What do you think only blacks abort? Mothers of all races abort. Well, except Muslim abortions are negligible.

The black abortion rate is much higher than any other race or ethnic group thanks to the careful placement of PP clinics in urban America.

Minority women constitute only about 13% of the female population (age 15-44) in the United States, but they underwent approximately 36% of the abortions. According to the Alan Guttmacher Institute, black women are more than 5 times as likely as white women to have an abortion On average, 1,876 black babies are aborted every day in the United States.

Since you brought up adding population since 2000, do you know we had 4,311,000 fewer white births than deaths between 2000 and 2010. That should make any white supremacist sad, but not ones that think all blacks are criminals and leeches on society. I’ll tell you, many more blacks would be working and out of jails if we sealed the border from the illegal aliens and the drugs. For every 100 illegals that get work in the USA 65 American citizens are displaced. Those are mostly blacks and other legal minorities. What do those blacks/minorities have to do then? They are forced onto social welfare programs due to the illegals taking their jobs. Many turn to the drug market to make money.

There is no doubt Blacks are hurt worst by immigration. Yet the Black Caucus supports more legal immigration and amnesty. It has to do with political power and votes. Blacks continue to be the most loyal Dem constituency voting over 90% for Dem candidates. Hispanics vote 71% for the Dems and Asians 73%. Minorities constitute 37% of the Dem voters and that is increasing.

Legal immigration is even worse than the impact of illegal aliens on the workforce. They hurt all native born workers taking jobs and depressing wages.

[jacknhoo]

“LOL. I am just giving you the facts. “

Oh, I must have missed that in this racist comment:

“The impact on unemployment, crime, welfare use, etc. would increase accordingly.”

Because you choose to ignore the reasons for the impact is not because of their existence, but because of extraneous circumstances that has nothing to do with being black or how many of them there are. But, hey, you can cover it up any way you can. I’m not here to argue with you or convince you otherwise...I just call like I see it.

You can post all the misleading graphs you want ignoring what I actually said if that’s what makes you feel better about yourself.

[trebb]

Thanks for the info - it is telling that folks who already have theirs are more likely to want to “fix” the programs rather than look at other ways to stop the money drain. My wife and I are both retired and getting fair retirements along with SS so we aren’t in the group that would be hurt the worst. I understand the rational and the need to fix the programs but would rather that folks who have been paying in all their lives, and planning on the programs as part of their retirement not be relegated to living worse off than the welfare leeches because the politicians have thrown all the money away.

[kabar]

because the politicians have thrown all the money away.

That is not the reason why SS and Medicare are in trouble. They are in essence Ponzi schemes. The actuary basis is flawed. We need to either raise taxes or reduce benefits or some combination thereof. The systems are unsustainable as currently structured.

Paraphrasing Mark Steyn, Americans want all the benefits of a European welfare system, but they are unwilling to pay the costs. Our politicians have led them to believe they can have it all without reducing benefits or reducing costs. Having lived in Europe for 15 years in five different countries, I know firsthand the heavy tax burden Europeans pay for their welfare systems.

Yes, there is plenty of waste, fraud, and abuse in our entitlement systems, but even making them run more efficiently and economically will not make them work actuarily. More Americans should read the annual Trustees reports, which lay out the data. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand the problem.

I did attend a week long seminar sponsored by CATO a number of years ago on SS and Medicare. It was well worth the price of admission. We heard from the major think tanks across the political spectrum, OMB, five Congressmen, a Nobel laureate, the administrators of SS and Medicare, a Trustee, and others. SS is actually the easiest to solve. Medicare, not so easy. We are headed for a slow motion train wreck. Washington only acts in a crisis situation. As a result, we can expect short term solutions that don't solve the long term problem. The Reagan-Tip O'Neil compromise on SS in 1983 is a good example.

I actually support Trump's approach politically. He has not fallen into the trap the Dems lay for Reps. Usually, the Rep talks honestly about the need for reform and the various options. The Dems then use it to attack them. Trump has said no reduction in benefits and supports the current programs. It is nonsense, but it allows him to avoid the Dem attacks. The reality is that both parties must bear the responsibility and come up with a solution that demands both parties support. Otherwise, the Dems will portray the Reps as wanting to push granny over the cliff. It is why the Dems and the MSM constantly want the Reps to come up with the specifics on the alternative to Obamacare.

[Clintonfatigued]

Even someone who has no education can tell that this cannot be sustained indefinitely. Something has to give.

Donald Trump has expertise to fix this, but even Trump at his best won’t be able to make it right overnight.

[central_va]

A 20% across the board import tariff balances the budget tomorrow. It has to be done.

[kabar]

Oh, I must have missed that in this racist comment: “The impact on unemployment, crime, welfare use, etc. would increase accordingly.”

How the Hell is that racist? You toss the racist charge around like a leftist. You would rather deal in emotion than in facts.

Blacks have a much higher abortion rate than any other group. Where do these women reside for the most part? In our urban areas in mostly black ghettos. Blacks have the highest out of wedlock births,i.e., 73%. Do you think that if the number of abortions were reduced, the resultant children would somehow escape the same factors that lead to rampant crime, high unemployment, deep poverty, and a major reliance on welfare? Your allegation of racism and failure to recognize the obvious is like Obama failing to cite radical Islam as a cause of terrorism.

Because you choose to ignore the reasons for the impact is not because of their existence, but because of extraneous circumstances that has nothing to do with being black or how many of them there are. But, hey, you can cover it up any way you can. I’m not here to argue with you or convince you otherwise...I just call like I see it.

You are blind to the facts and calling me a racist for providing them is just offensive and uncalled for. You are a fool whose arrogance is only exceeded by your ignorance. Blacks in this country make up a large portion of the permanent underclass in this society and that is bad for them and this country. It is the reason our cities are tinder boxes ready to explode ala Ferguson and Baltimore. Unemployment for young blacks without a high school diploma in our inner cities is 95%.

For the past 50 years, black unemployment has been well above recession levels:

The gap in household income between blacks and whites hasn't narrowed in the last 50 years

The black poverty rate is no longer declining

Black children are far more likely than whites to live in areas of concentrated poverty

Our schools are more segregated today than in 1980

The marriage gap has widened over the past 50 years:

The Census recently reported that 52.1 percent of black children are living in single-parent homes, versus just 19.9 percent of white children

The racial disparity in incarceration rates is bigger than it was in the 1960s

Blacks are still far more likely to be uninsured than whites. That's true for both adults and children

You can post all the misleading graphs you want ignoring what I actually said if that’s what makes you feel better about yourself.

You don't need no stinkin' facts. I was trying to educate you on the reality that exists in this country.

[jacknhoo]

It’s not racist if thars a graph fer it....hyuck, hyuck, hyuck. I’m edyecatin’ ye, caint ye ‘preciate dat?

[jacknhoo]

“Do you think that if the number of abortions were reduced, the resultant children would somehow escape the same factors that lead to rampant crime, high unemployment, deep poverty, and a major reliance on welfare?”

There you go again with your abortion can be a good thing, as long as its blacks...we wouldn’t want to reduce their abortion rates...but you say you’re prolife...pffft. You pretend to be saving them from a life poverty and the rest of us from their crimes and expense because we all know they’re human weeds, right?

That’s what I read coming from you. You post graphs showing how blacks are such a burden and you do it as if it is somehow tied to them like a ball an chain that cannot be separated from their skin color. Because of their profound misfortune, you’d just as soon not have that many of them around.

Please don’t talk to me anymore. I will not talk to you again.

[i_robot73]

Slight corrections:

We are an aging society. Ten thousand baby boomers retire every day and will continue to do so for the next 20 years. In 1950, we had 16 workers economic-slaves for every retiree; today, it is less than three; and by 2030 there will be just two workers such slaves for every retiree.

Currently, SS, Medicare, Medicaid, other illegal/unconstitutional mandates, and debt servicing costs comprise two thirds of the out of control federal budget. This percentage will increase as the population ages. Without reform If not abolished, these programs will eventually consume the entire federal budget of We the People (Life, Liberty, Property).

[i_robot73]

>How close are you to retirement? That data would help put your comments into perspective.

Et tu, Brute?

>
Many of these programs would be well-funded and healthy if not for what the politicians have wrought over the decades - do you trust them to “handle it”?
>

Well funded and healthy? Let’s start with illegal and unconstitutional. As such, they should be ‘handled’ the same way: immediate repeal, ripped from their roots and the Earth salted.

There is NOTHING ‘healthy and strong’ in any Ponzi scheme, let alone govt interfering in (once) free markets, nor stealing from one to give to another by way of gun/force.

>
Stop funding illegals and turn welfare into a basic subsistence program for those who can’t fend for themselves instead of a gravy train and stop all the pork and other wastes and we would see a big swing in the right direction to keep the contract that was forced upon us/them.
>
It’s *not* (never has been, never will be, nor should be) govt’s ‘property’ to be given....regardless of definition. 5th and 13th mean exactly what they state; govt can but the F* out of people’s lives and pockets/bank-accounts.

[kabar]

There you go again with your abortion can be a good thing, as long as its blacks...we wouldn’t want to reduce their abortion rates...but you say you’re prolife...pffft.

What a stupid comment. I am not advocating abortion. The fact that blacks abort their children at a much higher rate than any other group is a fact. There are consequences that flow from that fact. You just don't want to accept them.

You pretend to be saving them from a life poverty and the rest of us from their crimes and expense because we all know they’re human weeds, right?

I have worked with black groups on the issue of immigration. I have marched with them in the DC March for Jobs. They are being hurt the worst by our immigration policies. The Black Caucus has sold them out. In the meantime our inner cities have become cesspools. As a nation, something needs to be done or we will all face a terrible future. What have you done personally to address this problem?

That’s what I read coming from you. You post graphs showing how blacks are such a burden and you do it as if it is somehow tied to them like a ball an chain that cannot be separated from their skin color. Because of their profound misfortune, you’d just as soon not have that many of them around.

You are an idiot. The situation for blacks in this country has gotten worse under our first black President. The data I provided to you shows it. A permanent underclass will destroy this country. We can't survive the Balkanization by race, ethnicity, language, and culture. It is black culture, not skin color, that is causing these problems. The patronizing left has made them into victims and more dependent upon the government. I provided the facts and you fail to comprehend the import.

Please don’t talk to me anymore. I will not talk to you again.

No problem. You are wasting my time. You lack the intellect to have any meaningful dialogue.

[kabar]

If not abolished, these programs will eventually consume the entire federal budget of We the People (Life, Liberty, Property).

There is no political will to abolish these programs among the political class or the people.

[i_robot73]

>
Paraphrasing Mark Steyn, Americans want all the benefits of a European welfare system, but they are unwilling to pay the costs. Our politicians have led them to believe they can have it all without reducing benefits or reducing costs. Having lived in Europe for 15 years in five different countries, I know firsthand the heavy tax burden Europeans pay for their welfare systems.
>

As the saying goes, “People in Hell want ice-water...”. Ours is not a system where GOVT gives The People squat. Even *IF* the people were willing to pay for XYZ, there is no (none, nada, zero) authority, no capability in our Constitutional Republic.

>
SS is actually the easiest to solve. Medicare, not so easy. We are headed for a slow motion train wreck. Washington only acts in a crisis situation. As a result, we can expect short term solutions that don’t solve the long term problem. The Reagan-Tip O’Neil compromise on SS in 1983 is a good example.
>

Both, nay ALL govt created problems, are easy to solve: abolish outright from the ether from whence they came. No ‘wind-downs’ no ‘20-yr plan’; govt will *never* follow through.

Personal responsibility. One of those is not saving dime ONE, trusting politicians a/o allowing the use of the force of govt to steal from others that which was never yours.

As if $120T+ *should* be paid back by those w/out a voice ((great) grand\children)...slaves to their elders; let alone thinking it can EVER be re-paid (take it out of those that put us in this mess: elderly)

[i_robot73]

>There is no political will to abolish these programs among the political class or the people.

Yes. Because we have long lost the Republic, let alone our Constitution, to all but name.

[kabar]

Yes. Because we have long lost the Republic, let alone our Constitution, to all but name.<

So the choice is leave the country or take an early dirt nap. The choice is yours.

[PLMerite]

“...and a six digit federal pension.”

You must have been a Senior. I did 36.5 years and only made 13 step 10.

[PLMerite]

“...reach 141% of the nation’s GDP by 2046...”

Thirty years in the future is meaningless. Too many unknowns and variables.

What is the current percentage of National Debt to GDP right now, is it around 100%?

[kabar]

Yes, SFS—Minister Counselor.

[Night Hides Not]

Thirty years in the future is meaningless. Too many unknowns and variables.

I think CBO has underestimated the tsunami. More like 2031 than 2046.