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To: Utmost Certainty

8% for alternate candidates is too high with a 10% sample. The standard model used to be D+4 (in a decent year for RATS) and D+2 (in a good year from GOP). They work these poll numbers to create a “race,” remember pollsters need to be needed and media needs to sell ads, neither of which are needed if a blowout is expected.


8 posted on 06/01/2016 4:04:42 AM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature (HTTP 500 - Internal Server Error)
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To: IllumiNaughtyByNature

I’ve no reason to believe they’re fudging the samples.

Let’s not forget the ‘Unskewed Polls’ disaster in 2012 lol.


9 posted on 06/01/2016 4:13:07 AM PDT by Utmost Certainty
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To: IllumiNaughtyByNature
They work these poll numbers to create a “race,” remember pollsters need to be needed and media needs to sell ads, neither of which are needed if a blowout is expected.

Bingo. Media hires polling firm. Poling firm creates "results" needed to pump up clicks and encourage ad spending.

11 posted on 06/01/2016 4:25:54 AM PDT by Flick Lives (One should not attend even the end of the world without a good breakfast. -- Heinlein)
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