I have been thinking about this too for a long time. I can not see how a civil war or even a state secession could actually come about. I agreee with you regarding the lack of a cohesive ideological force. The only thing that I can see is if the Feds to get rid of the second ammendment. Thoughts?
I’m no expert, but it seems a Constitutional Convention would be required to delete the 2nd Amendment. Congress can’t legislate it out (but could bury it in legislative action) and the President can’t delete it by Executive Privilege.