I’m not one of the R+L=J people, and I do understand the show has to take a lot of short cuts to explain a bunch of overlapping triangles.
Ned was in a pickle from the start. It could’ve been him or his brother; that part is murky.
Mel uses shadow magic. Stannis wanted her to make another one, but she begged off. That made me wonder if that was a one-shot thing until she sort of offered it again in the show, but Stannis refused her. Her fire magic is questionable. Thoros is a different story.
I think I spotted some Umber banners in the trailer for the upcoming season, but the shot was so short, I can’t really be sure.
Does AD = Catelyn Stark (Tully), then?