Posted on 02/03/2016 5:45:03 AM PST by xzins
1. Wikipedia says: "The Iowa Caucus[1] is an electoral event in which residents of the U.S. state of Iowa meet in precinct caucuses in all of Iowa's 1,681 precincts and elect delegates to the corresponding county conventions."
2. Ted Cruz's ground game was said to be massive and the explanation for his victory. He had workers at all precincts.
3. Ted Cruz apologized for his workers spreading misinformation about Ben Carson dropping out of the race. Carson says this misinformation affected vote totals.
4. http://cnsnews.com/news/article/cnsnewscom-staff/iowa-cruz-278-trump-244-rubio-229-carson-93-paul-45
Cruz had 51,416--or 27.7 percent--of the votes.
Trump was second with 45,245 or 24.3 percent of the votes.
Rubio was third with 42,863 or 23.1 percent of the votes.
Dr. Ben Carson was fourth with 17,321 or 9.3 percent of the votes.
5. If each precinct has a caucus and there are 1681 precincts, as stated by point #1, then one vote lost per precinct to the misinformation campaign totaled 1681 votes possibly added to Cruz's total.
6. Since Cruz's lead was only 6200 votes, that would mean only about 4 vote changes per precinct.
7. This calls into question the size of Cruz's victory, the size of Carson's loss, and the number of delegates apportioned.
8. Question: Should that be acknowledge by the Republican Party in a public news release?
oh, yeah.....lots of milling and conversing. lots of candidate shirts, buttons, etc.
that is the point of the caucus. there are volunteer speakers for each candidate, if they want to speak...allowed two minutes to lay out the case for their candidate. these “speakers” are not necessarily campaign workers, although they could be. some were just voters that stood up.
interestingly, in my caucus, there were no speakers for trump. not sure why, just stating a fact.
Shhh, don’t disturb the locals who are spinning like tops.
Saint Teddy would never ever allow dirty plays to go on.
I’d like more discussion on King’s involvement, Mr. Conservative himself who certainly knows better than to spread false information.
So, then, no public announcement had to be made. Find a Carson supporter and just tell them privately. Sounds pretty easy to do to me.
However, I do value your description of the caucus. We don’t do that here in Ohio. Part of me wishes we did.
Don’t you guys realize that all of this spilled milk that people are crying over only minimally affects convention vote count?
It would probably be just one vote.
Believe it or not, there are people out there who don’t live on Twitter.
probably 200 or so
I cant say unequivocally that NO one was affected, but I did not hear about it at the caucus.
if you look at the raw vote totals, carson finished 4th in just about every county across the state. 3rd in a couple, but mostly, he was consistent in his % of votes, statewide.
statistically, if this issue was a factor, one would think that you would see lots of variation in his vote totals from county to county, as this would have got around the state but that simply did not happen.
Personally, I dont think it factored in at all. that is just my humble opinion.
A couple of sources with some info but not necessarily data
that will be certified as final.
precinct results
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/01/us/iowa-caucus-republican-precinct-results.html
county results:
http://graphics.latimes.com/election-2016-iowa-results/
So if you are a Cruz supporter, it’s ok to lie to enable your candidate to win?
“I do not believe that that Carson supporters could be that stupid.”
Yes, taking someone a their word, like Cruz who claims he is a Christian and campaigns that he is above the dirty politics, did turn out to be stupid. Lesson learned. He’s a liar and his supporters are liars.
It’s almost certain that the misbehavior in the Cruz camp didn’t change the outcome.
But that doesn’t excuse what the Cruz people did.
They took a report on CNN and read something into it that wasn’t there.
And instead of verifying the facts, in the heat of the moment, they ran with it to get the maximum possible advantage that they could.
It doesn’t matter whether 1 vote or 10,000 changed over this.
Cruz said it was “fair game”, which says a lot about his character.
From some of the things I heard yesterday I get the impression that at every precinct this rumor was started, there was a Carson person on hand to rebut it. It was never allowed to stand. When Carson was on O’Reily he was asked about the timeline and it showed that the CNN announcement was what started the whole thing. When he was asked if that would not make CNN the culprit, Dr Carson just mumbled some platitudes.
He thought he would do better and is looking for an excuse why he didn’t. This ain’t it.
No crying here. I’m disputing the size of Cruz’s win, if it would hold up as a win, and the size of Carson’s loss.
The issue is not crying: Cruz HIMSELF apologized for this activity.
No crying here. I’m disputing the size of Cruz’s win, if it would hold up as a win, and the size of Carson’s loss.
The issue is not crying: Cruz HIMSELF apologized for this activity.
Cruz “character”:
1. Phony summonses mailed out, scaring people to vote.
2. Claiming Carson quit, “vote for me”
3. Campaigning in the 800 churches, showing video “vote for me”
4. “Brilliant” lawyer, did not know he was Canadian citizen and that he is not Natural Born Citizen, not eligible for office of P or VP.
Just enough to beat the polls and Trump.
Whata kontry!
I can tell you I was at a suburban Des Moines caucus and I heard no one mention the Carson story. Nor did I hear anyone mention it when I made an appearance at a couple of after-parties.
Carson says it changed his results.
Cruz apologized to Carson.
Carson really didn't lose much, but he did leave too early. He had no valid reason to make his first statement that he wasn't sticking around.
He had previously lost his support team in N.H.
What do you expect people to conclude?
The thing I like about the caucus format is the likelihood that only interested parties will show up. There is not a great chance that the Shady Hills Retirement center is going to bus in 100 patients and ‘guide’ them through their voting, or worse yet, fill out their absentee ballots for them.
As always I support voter picture ID, a voting day, voter registration rolls, paper ballots, purple thumbs or thumb prints on the voter registration roll, and zero totals releases until all vote totals are reported.
I plan to watch BOR tonight because like him or not, last night he promised Dr. Carson he would thoroughly investigate the incident and air his findings.
As it stands right now, it seems that Cruz backer, Iowa Congressman King, cherry picked 1 of 3 Tweets by a CNN journalist I think, which set the whole damn, deplorable lie in motion.
Ted Cruz had no idea about the lie.
Congressman King? He’s another matter.
Correct.
That’s precisely the report I heard.
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