Not wanting to precipitate a pie-fight, but how does the drop in iPhone sales this far into the product lifecycle compare to the drop in sales of other Apple products over the past decade and a half? Don't they ALL do something like that, and Apple comes up with some Radical New Thing, or major twist on some existing thing, that gets the cycle started again?
(I imagine Swordmaker, keeper of all things Apple, can comment on the typical sales lifecycle of Apple's various products post-2000.)
In my observation, Apple has never stuck around after a product line starts to decline. That's for the folks who enjoy the Race To The Bottom. Apples stays ahead of that game, because they own the high end, not the low end.
Or at least, they have in the past. I personally believe they are at (or even a bit beyond) the point where they need to trot out the Next Big Thing, and it's gotta do well. Their record over the years is excellent, but past performance is not an indicator of future returns, as they say.
I look forward to Apple knocking everybody over this Spring or thereabouts.
Just like I look forward to Microsoft turning Windows 10 into a great OS product of a whole new type. It has that potential, and it's only at the beginning of its lifecycle.
One big shift is that Apple is becoming predictable with their changes, to the point that (sweeping generalization) everyone who is going to buy or upgrade to the latest will do so immediately on availability, leaving a huge stampede on inventory followed by a precipitous decline as everyone who is going to get one got one.
There are only so many people on the planet. There’s a hard limit to market saturation.