I have a theory about Iowa:
Cruz wins it.
Momentum into New Hampshire for 2nd place.
Nearly clean sweep in the South.
Trump makes several badly placed remarks sucking oxygen out.
That’s my theory / hope.
I don’t mind if we get Trump. I prefer Cruz. I still see the path above as reasonably achievable. There is lots of time. Cruz has ground game, and nobody’s seen that yet.
Problem with that is Trump leads by double digits in almost every Southern State that votes early. South Carolina, Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and Tennessee.
Texas is Cruz’s, no doubt.
The only problem with that theory is that Cruz just isn’t going to be able to change that many minds. He has a small strong support base but the majority of the GOP voting base is middle of the road or slightly right of center so Trump’s a better fit for them.
Cruz might take Iowa but I would not put money on it.
Personally I would really like to see Cruz as VP or AG.