Replies

Ironically that is considered one of the more successful counter-terrorism raids according to several Western Spec-ops that spoke about it at the time. How, especially considering so many people died? Simple because of the range of alternative options that were present. The terrorists, who included several female 'black widows' that had strapped explosives to their bodies, had laced the entire theater with explosives. This included what was basically a landmine strapped to the main doors.

So, lets look at the options. Any breach would have led to the Jihadis either detonating the main explosives, or the blackwidows detonating their suicide belts. Possibly both. Additionally, any breach would not just have to be sudden, but it would also have to immediately incapacitate every single terrorist at the same time since the moment the Jihadis saw some of their members getting woozy they would detonate. Third, the Chechen Jihadis in that theater went in to die - thus there would be no happy ending or negotiated release.

Hence, the need to use a gas that would have to incapacitate everyone at the same time. Unfortunately, that meant that the concentrations would be too high for some, and there were children in the theater.

Result? Several hundred died, but most were saved. Had the Chechen Jihadis had their way the death toll would have been much higher.

What was interesting is that those former Spec-ops talking heads mentioned that had the same exact attach happened in, say, NYC or London, there would have been no real solution. They thought the Russian response was not only the right one, but considering the situation it was the best.

Now, if you want to see a situation where the Russians messed up, have a look at the Beslan school hostage situation. That was a real command and control muck up. Proper. However, the Theater Hostage in Moscow was not only one of the most successful hostage takedowns - due to the specific set of circumstances at play - it was one that without the nerve gas would have led to almost absolute casualties.

It was a situation of whether you are going to lose big or whether you are going to lose everything. The Russians chose to lose big rather than lose everything. All Western governments need to think about what they would do in such situations - where a simple SWAT-esque breach will not work - since it will obviously happen. A situation where linear breaches will not work, where out of the box thinking will be required, and a choice will have to be made between taking a decision that will cost lives (but save most) or hold out for a more 'optimal' solution that would only lead to more dead. A number of brave Americans faced that situation up in the air on 9/11/2001, when they learned that other planes had been flown into buildings. They had a bad set of choices - even if they overcame the Saudi Jihadis how would they land the plans - but they still went ahead since acting was the best decision out of a range of unfortunate choices.

Western governments need to 'prepare their chi' for such decisions.