Posted on 10/25/2015 8:26:19 AM PDT by conservativejoy
The new Politico Caucus survey of insiders from Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina is in. The “politicos” on the ground in those states all agree. Donald Trump has a real and significant chance to become the Republican nominee.
I participated in that survey, and I put his chance at 30%. When I share this view with establishment Republicans and some DC insiders, the expressions range from anger to disbelief to a kind but piteous look that suggests that perhaps the men in the white coats should come and take me away to a safe and comfortable place where I would be at no risk of causing harm to society or to my person.
I bet a lot of democrats who had the guts to say, early in 2008, “you know Obama just might win” got that same look too. That’s because it is increasingly obvious that Obama and Trump have something in common. On the road to the White House, both looked up one day and found that they were not just running campaigns, they were leading causes.
Make no mistake, Trump is running a campaign and it is a strong one, better in many ways than the more traditional campaigns of his opponents. Trump has built a sizeable and deep campaign infrastructure in the early primary states. These organizations are led not by cranky volunteer types who just stick up yard signs and stir the pot, but seasoned political veterans (such as Ed McMullen and Jim Merrill in South Carolina) who know how to win elections.
All of the elements of a great campaign are present. Trump has a brand. He has iconography in the form of the ubiquitous red hat. A Reaganesque slogan in “Make America Great Again.” A battle cry in a song, “We’re Not Gonna Take it Anymore.” And, if he elects to reach under the mattress at Trump Tower, he has more than enough resources to keep the music playing as long as it takes. I can explain Trump’s campaign in 15 seconds. I’m not sure I can explain any of the others in 15 minutes.
It is working because Trump has a base. Secular, more moderate, working class voters who believe they are being left behind by the globalization of both our economy and our culture. These people form the basis of the cause.
Sure, they’ve been around ever since economic globalization has been an issue. They were Reagan Democrats, or Perot voters, or Pat Buchanan supporters. But changes in our economy and culture have been occurring at a lightning pace these last four years, and these voters fear that America is in danger of irreversibly becoming not only something they do not recognize, but a place in which they no longer belong.
These folks are not hard to find. During the week, they work shifts on the factory floor to support their families. They cheer their kids on Friday night at the High School football game. On Saturday they line Main street for the Veteran’s Day parade or attend local festivals and events. On Sunday morning they may be in church, but you might just as easily find them up in a tree stand, down in a duck blind or out in a bass boat. So when Trump comes to South Carolina and mentions trade, immigration, support for our vets, gun rights and Clemson football, people shouldn’t be stunned when an auditorium of thousands of people roar with approval.
Not long ago, these people were celebrated as the backbone of America. But today, they get the impression they are a malignant tumor that a wealthy, educated class of new American elites would excise and discard. They not just disrespected, but in some circles mocked, “flyover” people whose values and way of life are not only irrelevant, but distasteful.
The irony that a chauffeur driven New York billionaire has given voice to their concerns is not lost. But Trump has spoken of their concerns with more clarity and strength than any voice they’ve heard echo their thoughts since Reagan.
In politics, causes beat campaigns. Causes prompt sold out venues, more volunteers than you can assign tasks, and political outcomes that defy traditional measurement and conventional wisdom.
Trump, perhaps unwittingly, finds himself the leader of that cause. If he can stay in front of the pack, and grow his vote, that cause may carry him to a heretofore unthinkable victory.
Trump may well be the biggest obstacle to Hillary’s dream of being the first woman president.
Amazing you would say that in the face of the crimes she has and still is committing.
Partially disagree. I can't be defined as "moderate." But the "working class voter" characterization is exactly spot on.
I know a lot of people, hordes or people, who are sick of working their asses off and forking it over to the government to fund those who won't work.
I cannot believe the political class doesn't see this not-overly-political mass of people who are getting stirred up.
The "hindsight is 20/20" analysis is going to be interesting once this is over.
I know Hillary has committed crimes, but where is the indictment? If she never gets indicted or held accountable, she may well skate to the Dem. nomination and get elected president.
With Loretta Lynch as AG there will be no indictment.
This table shows the 16 states that will have been decided by 1 March 2016.
Of the states Trump does NOT lead in, only Iowa has a head-to-head match. In Alaska, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Wyoming, Trump is not counted at all (do not know why).
Note how Trump leads in several politically disparate states - Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts, Nevada.
I think his chances are a lot more than 30%; probably 75!
All I know is this, I’m peed and been that way for a long time. I live in Texas and it absolutely pees me off that ethanol loving Iowans and liberal New Hampshire folks pick their favorite RINO for me and I’m left holding my nose in the general election while voting.
oopps, I’m sorry I shouldn’t have been that radical, I guess now I’ll be on Obama’s watch list.
Might?
Congress, the POTUS, and SCOTUS all signed off on McCain-Feingold (and other “campaign finance ‘reform’” legislation before it) on the basis that the First Amendment wasn’t as important as containing the “corruption” of unlimited campaign donations. Now along comes Hillary, who was a principal of the Clinton Foundation - and of her marriage - when, while she was Secretary of State, that foundation, and that marriage, took big bucks in contributions and honoraria for speeches from foreign governments. That flies in the face of the spirit of Campaign Finance Reform and of the Constitutional stricture,no person holding any office of profit or trust under them, shall, without the consent of the Congress, accept of any present, emolument, office, or title, of any kind whatever, from any king, prince, or foreign state.Jim Wright had to resign as Speaker of the House over having accepted payment for huge quantities of worthless books. But Hillary expects to skate; she always has.But Electors voting for POTUS are, constitutionally speaking, “appointed” by their states. Not elected, in contrast to congressmen, who under the Constitution are elected. Consequently, any state has the “plenary power” (in SCOTUS speak) to decide how Electors are selected and who may not be selected.
Legislators in every state should demand to know why their anyone who wants to vote in the Electoral College for a violator of the constitutional stricture against accepting goodies from foreign governments can qualify to be on the ballot in their state. And insist on a law against it, which would define a violation as including the knowing acceptance of gifts/honoraria from creatures of foreign governments. And would define a violator as including principals/officers in any organization/marriage which committed a violation.
I think some folks just can’t quite bring themselves past “Might” win. I’m not one of them. From what I see, Trump supporters are determined and willing to fight tooth and nail.
I believe Trump or his “people” read on FR and report to him. I wrote a fact several days ago about Democrats which is not a well known fact and within a few days, Trump repeated that info.. So, be aware what you say is likely read by him/his people.
I’m glad to hear they are paying attention!
Did you catch Full Measure on ABC this morning with Sharyl Atkisson? She reported on illegal immigrant crime! Had victim’s parents on & statistics! It really pointed to Obama’s failed policy! Then Conservative Treehouse posted the Jake Tapper interview with Trump! Excellent interview!
I didn’t see that, but it sounds great. I have seen the Tapper interview. Excellent!
[I’m glad to hear they are paying attention!]
Yea, me too. I like people who pay attention.
Somewhere between Loretta Lynch's butt cheeks.
Simply because the Democrats and the Republican establishment with which they’re in league, hand in glove, may not be able to steal the election this time around.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.