Ind 34, Dem 30, Rep 26.... The first thing I look at.
Besides : The gender gap explains the whole difference. If Trump gains 7 points (switch) overall with both men and women he will cover it. This is registered voters. Likely would br +3 more Rep. Men Trump +1 Women Clinton +24 I can easily see it being Men Trump +15 Women Clinton +10 eventually particularly if Trump has a female VP like Fiorina...
Or perhaps Palin.
(just saying)