[Vermont Lt]

Well the, that would point to being, on average, overdue.

Now I am going to be the devil’s advocate here: 13 “recent “ earthquakes is not significant over the life of the continent.

It is akin to predicting global temperatures using just the past 13 years.

If the study went back millions of years, there would be hundreds or thousands of observations.

I hope you understand my point. I am not trying to be obtuse.

[21twelve]

Yeah - I get you regarding the “overdue” part. It is like the term “100 year flood” event to plan for. Over the long term it is probably reasonable. The trouble begins when you have two “100 year floods” in the span of a few years.

“Well I thought it would be safe to rebuild here....”

And while we can't predict when the next big EQ will happen, we can be pretty sure that it will happen. The same mechanisms are still all in place. And, with the longer times between major EQ, there is the idea that more strain and energy has been built up, making it that much bigger.