> I think you have made an excellent analysis.
Yeah I would second that as well -- at least in terms of number of units, it's very likely to come true.
The enterprise editions will be a slow uptake -- business is mighty skeptical after Windows 8 and the lost productivity Metro brought.
Then again, it's possible the mobile versions -will- take off, at least enough to represent a fair fraction of the mobiles out there. Microsoft is bringing a lot of cool and/or useful stuff to the table. But success in numbers depends on whether people actually want what Microsoft brings to the table
I think the adoption rate of the enterprise version will be slow because business will be skeptical of relying on the cloud, and won't want to pay the monthly fee for cloud services they're not going to use, preferring to keep their data on-prem.
I'll predict that the business adoption rate of Windows 10 will be even faster that the Windows 7 pace. Most businesses skipped Windows 8 completely, just like they did Vista, and upgraded from XP to 7.
They'll be all over upgrading to 10 to take advantage of the free upgrade offer in the first year, but I expect to see a lot of it be the Pro version.