Great analysis, but Manny today is not the Manny of 5 years ago that’s part of the reason Mayweather is willing to fight him now.
Mayweather won the fight when it was decided it would be held in Las Vegas. Mayweather is a huge money maker for the casinos and city. The judges will be biased in his favor. Maidana beat Mayweather in the first fight, but the judges gave it to Mayweather. The same thing will happen in this fight.
Main reason that I think Mayweather will win is that the judges will all be able to buy their own island after the fight.