Posted on 01/24/2015 1:08:10 AM PST by Berlin_Freeper
...One can clearly see the Patriots, visually, are off the chart. There is no other team even close to being near to their rate of 187 offensive plays per fumble lost. The league average is 105 plays per fumble lost. Most teams are within 21 plays of that number.
I spoke with a data scientist whom I know from work on NFLproject.com and sent him the data. He said:
Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution, you’d expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten over this period, once in 16,233.77 instances.
Which in layman’s terms means that this result only being a coincidence, is like winning a raffle where you have a 0.0000616 probability to win.
(Excerpt) Read more at slate.com ...
I still contend that this fuss is just sour grapes. Everybody should calm down, let the SuperBowl be played with the extra scrutiny it will have, and let the Patriot's performance in the game speak for itself.
Fell apart right near the beginning: Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution,
Fumbles per play do NOT follow a normal distribution curve. Some players are more prone to fumbling, some coaches are more prone to allowing sloppy play that makes the team more prone to fumbling, some coaches put more work into having the defense practice forcing fumbles which not only means their opponents fumble more it means their offenses generally fumble less. Fumbles are NOT random events and do not distribute accordingly. Fumble recovery does tend to be random, but that’s not until after the fumble.
That makes perfect sense since they drafted guys (like Maroney) and signed guys that have a reputation and record of holding the ball, which is a proven key to success in the NFL. They never draft high (because they win so much) so they find other metrics in players that increase their value and build a game plan around the positives.
They don’t draft flashy guys, they don’t sign high profile guys in their prime but they do get guys that understand how to win and that fit into their game plan.
But I’m sure that all the haters would be able to note the subtle differences between a ball inflated to 12 and 11.5 PSI because it’s the sole and total reason the Pats win games..
These arguments are getting pathetic and petty.
From the presentation:
“Former NFL quarterback Hugh Millen, who now helps design footballs for Baden, says quarterbacks prefer footballs with less air because of better grip and faster throws.”
He says NFL quarterbacks.... not specifically Tom Brady. How many other of these minor infractions are commonplace throughout the league?
Again - this whole issue is a huge nothing.
How many games did Aaron Rogers win using Over inflated footballs?
If the NFL is going to make an example of Brady - they’d better be going after everyone else as well.
Fumble recovery does tend to be random, but that’s not until after the fumble.There are practice techniques and skills used in fumble recovery like touching a ball in the air so it drops straight down and falling on it, pulling it in to the gut while being balled up so it can't be pulled away etc... So your points can be made for both events.
But back to your original error... as noted it is obvious that fumbles and fumbles lost are not a normal distribution curve and there are skills and practices involved. Otherwise we would be waiting at play count 55 and say OK here comes the fumble.
So to make that observation is really quite pointless to the data being presented. Data, which by the way has skill, practice, etc, inherent in the charts being presented in the whole and is looked at from several ways. You can't separate skill, practice, etc from the data because they helped create the data and in the case of the Pats this includes deflated balls (least we forget). Presenting it in a proper way as a chart is how one can analyze such numbers.
Those things you are transfixed on are actually noted in the second to last paragraph, that judging from the knee-jerk rejection in your post ("Fell apart right near the beginning") could not be bothered reading before wasting my time.
I'd seriously appreciate it if you read the whole thing next time, it's Saturday and I have a family tugging at my elbow... instead I am correcting your errors which you couldn't be bothered with yourself. Thanks.
We’ll see.
IMO Brady won’t get what he really deserves so don’t worry too much.
Fumble recovery tends to be random because once a fumble starts the ball bounces largely at random. Willie Parker had a streak of fumbles that all quickly bounced out of bounds thus keeping possession, that was followed by another streak where he wasn’t so lucky. Yes there’s some skill when the ball bounces to you to help you get possession, but whether or not the ball is going to bounce to you is random. Thus fumble recovery does TEND to be random, just as I said.
Making the observation proves that the data presented is pointless. It’s all based on a false assumption.
There’s no reason to read the whole thing when the excerpts you posted show the rest is quite simply wrong.
Out here in reality a team can DRASTICALLY reduce their fumble rate without any cheating. Just look at the Giants before Tom Coughlin and with him, especially Tiki Barber. Thus anybody thinking that the Pats fumble rate is proof of cheating is, quite frankly, a moron, and their story is not worth reading.
I knew it.
Thanks for wasting another minute of my time.
Don’t blame me. You’re the one that chose a dumb article and an excerpt that showed it was dumb. You wasted way more of your own minutes just starting this thread than I ever will.
You are so stupid you don't even realize what a fool you just admitted to being. LoL!
And you been on this forum 14 years... Yea, you the smart guy. .
And now you run to insults. Thus showing you know the facts don’t back you, but you
just
must
find
a
way
to
win.
But you can’t, because we’re wrong.
Well have fun, I’m done on this thread. Bye.
Forget I ask you not to waste my time, LoL!
new tagline :)
Gritty? Well, I kind of see how far the rules have now gone and wonder if those guys would have balked. Some of them are, of course, good measure, some just get to the point where if you breath on someone the wrong way you draw a flag.
In some ways you have to give the guys today more credit too as they have to be cognizant of all the rules all the time...makes some things difficult when they happen at the speeds that it happens in a game.
Right...of course...and yours is nothing more then wanton denial so as to be self authorized the Pats...sheesh, get over it bruddah!
I don’t have a dog in this fight...the league however has a huge problem...they were directly involved in the chain of custody that resulted in those footballs being used in the game...what the Patriots did undercuts the integrity of the league which is why it IS such a big deal...I expect the punishment to be severe...
Don’t hate on me because your team prefers to play with a purse rather than a football like men do.
inane baiting does not work...
Hater.
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