Posted on 01/24/2015 1:08:10 AM PST by Berlin_Freeper
...One can clearly see the Patriots, visually, are off the chart. There is no other team even close to being near to their rate of 187 offensive plays per fumble lost. The league average is 105 plays per fumble lost. Most teams are within 21 plays of that number.
I spoke with a data scientist whom I know from work on NFLproject.com and sent him the data. He said:
Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution, you’d expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten over this period, once in 16,233.77 instances.
Which in layman’s terms means that this result only being a coincidence, is like winning a raffle where you have a 0.0000616 probability to win.
(Excerpt) Read more at slate.com ...
And the whole rest of the NFL isn’t?
Ugh! My brain has never been wired to understand probability and statistics—it switches off just like when I try to read an IRS publication! All I can say is I watched the Pats crush the Colts, and it seems to me that 1-2 psi difference in the footballs could not possibly account for the Colts’ abysmal performance. Add 7 or even 14 points to their score and you still have a convincing win for the Pats.
I think the Pats will beat the Seahawks, but then we almost turned off the Seattle-Green Bay game because it appeared to be sown up. I’m not putting any money on it, but will enjoy the heck out of what I hope will be a good game. That’s what makes the game so exciting: the seemingly impossible sometimes happens. As a long time Bills fan, I know you don’t shut the game off until it is officially over—as illustrated by Buffalo’s 30+ point comeback against Houston years ago.
I don’t know if the Pats cheated or not. My understanding is that the investigation is ongoing. They may get fined or lose a draft pick, but as for the Super Bowl none of that matters. The balls are handled differently, and the whole world will be watching. It should be a heck of a contest!
Because we were to wait on you?
That’s pretty much my conclusion, whether it makes a big difference or not, there could just be wink-wink nod say-no-more between teams. And the refs won’t get interested unless someone complains. If every quarterback has their own sometimes wildly different preference, it could just be every team is scared to ask the refs to check because they know the other team will ask in retaliation back at them. That happens in baseball when someone complains to an ump about loaded or scuffed balls, sometimes they know something is up but they probably have a pitcher on their team that does the same thing. Also no one wants 90+ some time later down the season.
It would be interesting to know exactly how this came to the attention to the refs. 11 of 12 altered kinda makes me think no one even considered getting caught.
Freegards
team, as in singular, as in cheating New England Patriots, as this data analysis clearly shows.
GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS! GO PATRIOTS!
If all of these whiners who want to punish Brady and Belichek for maybe doing something bad with a minimal penalty attaced to it, they'll get the chance. Everybody should just SHUT UP and let Brady and Belichek prove (or disprove) their skills in the SuperBowl. If as the critics are contending, the Pats win because of cheating, well, they should be just awful in a highly scrutinized SuperBowl.
Football players and commentators being so offended and all that is embarrassing to listen to. "Big Boys Don't Cry" and all that.
The rest of the NFL cannot be "far less tolerant" than Bellichek of RBs and receivers who fumble.
Whether Bellichek is less tolerant is a matter of opinion, but only a few can be far less tolerant than the rest. And I think Bellichek is one of those. \
It’s not a coincidence. Not turning the ball over is one of the fundamentals of their training and games. They’ll let you complete 10 passes on a drive and turn the ball over. RBs get benched for NEAR fumbles, and for fumbles they recover...and they spend a lot of time on drills with a cord attached to the ball or players run between lines of players trying to punch out the ball.
Not random at all.
No, it’s not...one will get ejected from the game in baseball if caught partaking in one of those activities...
There is a fundamental flaw in this analysis. It assumes that fumbles are randomly distributed.
When there are skill factors on both sides (causing and preventing), the base distribution is certainly not normal, for any team.
If Murray was on the Patriots he’d be sitting on the bench, even with all his talent, until he learned to knock it off.
You lost the V...which *may* also come into play.
I don’t think you can take too much from the Pats demolition of the Colts in regards predicting how they’ll do against the Seahawks.
The Colts don’t match up well, either playing style, or coaching to the Patriots, (or playing outdoors), and have been completely non-competitive in recent years.
The Seahawks have some tools to exploit weaknesses that the Pats will have to address, along with other strengths which counter the typical adjustments. Completely different matchup.
The data compares all teams on fumbles. Unless you believe that the Pats are super human compared to the whole rest of the NFL for being nearly off the chart, then the obvious conclusion considering they finally got caught with deflategate is that Pats were cheating.
Also look at the fact that the Pats play at home in an open stadium as mentioned in this article and now you are talking about the Pats being super super human.
This data analysis is actually very good.
Why is there even a rule for PSI in the ball? Let the teams pick their own PSI and win or lose on that! What an F’n dumbass rule.
Just read that article. How stupid. If an under inflated ball gives an advantage why not use that for a better game for both teams?
Thos seems to make sense. It would be harder for a defensive player to punch a deflated ball out of a runners grip. So actual fumbles would not bounce as high or as far away from the fumbler. Lots of advantages to a softer ball.
They could use PlayStation 4.
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