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WHO: There Could Be 10,000 New Ebola Cases Per Week In Coming Months
http://jobs.aol.com/videos/job-interviews/who-there-could-be-10-000-new-ebola-cases-per-week-in-coming-mo/518462543/ ^

Posted on 12/15/2014 4:38:51 AM PST by wtd


(Excerpt) Read more at jobs.aol.com ...


TOPICS: Health/Medicine
KEYWORDS: ebola; who
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Additional links related to Ebola for 12/15/2014


1 posted on 12/15/2014 4:38:51 AM PST by wtd
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To: wtd

Quarantine. Keep them out of America....... Is not my problem or Americas. Europe got though the plague and black death. Maybe Africa needs the same to produce a stronger people who can elevate their nations. Cruel but true!


2 posted on 12/15/2014 4:54:35 AM PST by dennisw (The first principle is to find out who you are then you can achieve anything -- Buddhist monk)
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To: wtd

There could be 10,000 new ebola cases a month . . . or not


3 posted on 12/15/2014 5:01:56 AM PST by Dr. Sivana (There is no salvation in politics)
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To: wtd

This information was a guess several weeks ago, but it is now outdated.

I have been tracking the exponential growth of Ebola in the three most heavily affected West African nations. As of December 12, 2014, the total number of cases was 18,188 with a total death toll of 6,583. The number of new cases per day (as of today) is averaging about 160.

If the outbreak continues on its present course, the total number of Ebola cases will cross 100,000 in approximately June of 2015. The daily multiplier growth rate computed based on the last 30 days of WHO data is approximately 1.00876. That is, take the total number of cases each day and multiply by 1.00876 to get the total number of cases for the next day.

The Ebola outbreak is NOT slowing. It is relentless. It is just slower than the original projections predicted.

The combined population of the three West African nations is about 22 million. That means that less than one in one thousand in those nations have contracted the disease. However, that is NOT good news. It simply means that there remains a huge population yet to be infected with nothing standing in the way of their becoming infected.

I fully expect the Ebola numbers growth to continue unabated through at least ten percent of the population. That means approximately two million cases by the summer of 2016.


4 posted on 12/15/2014 5:04:25 AM PST by TruthInThoughtWordAndDeed (Yahuah Yahusha)
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To: wtd

Send billions. Black lives matter. Thank you. Later.


5 posted on 12/15/2014 5:05:12 AM PST by Attention Surplus Disorder (At no time was the Obama administration aware of what the Obama administration was doing)
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To: wtd

Thanks for posting. Health/life BUMP!


6 posted on 12/15/2014 5:08:54 AM PST by PGalt
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To: TruthInThoughtWordAndDeed

Do you think there are cases here that are being kept under wraps?


7 posted on 12/15/2014 5:14:15 AM PST by randita (Obama entrusted the transformation of the best healthcare system in the world to a scam artist.)
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To: wtd

But not a peep about it here. Ignorance is paramount for the success of an epidemic here.

Thanks for posting.


8 posted on 12/15/2014 5:18:17 AM PST by Cowgirl of Justice
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To: randita
Do you think there are cases here that are being kept under wraps?

I do not know, but I absolutely do not trust anyone in government. An Ebola outbreak in the United States would be just the kind of thing that leads to martial law and worse.

9 posted on 12/15/2014 5:31:22 AM PST by TruthInThoughtWordAndDeed (Yahuah Yahusha)
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To: TruthInThoughtWordAndDeed
As of December 12, 2014, the total number of cases was 18,188 with a total death toll of 6,583. The number of new cases per day (as of today) is averaging about 160.

Why do you believe any number they are giving you at this point? The death rate is 84%. Unless there has been a huge jump in the last week of new cases, say 10,000, you know the death number is bogus.....so why are we being told the truth on the number of total cases.

I think it is long past time to not take the reported numbers seriously.

10 posted on 12/15/2014 5:44:35 AM PST by Lady Heron
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To: TruthInThoughtWordAndDeed
The Ebola outbreak is NOT slowing. It is relentless. It is just slower than the original projections predicted.

With the way they are playing with the reported numbers, we do not know if that is even true.

11 posted on 12/15/2014 5:46:34 AM PST by Lady Heron
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To: TruthInThoughtWordAndDeed

I have two questions. 1. How long is it between Ebola first being introduced into a population and it becoming a general health threat? 2. Is there a “critical mass” of exposure that makes its spread more likely in that new location?


12 posted on 12/15/2014 5:49:47 AM PST by grania
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To: wtd

In gold mining, the quality of ore is always greatest the closer you are to the surface. The deeper you dig, the lower quality the ore. But those who are bitten by the gold bug refuse to believe this, hoping that if they can just go deep enough, they will hit “the mother lode” of high grade ore.

When selling a nearly played out mine to suckers, its owners will go to lengths to convince them of “the deeper the richer”, even “salting” the mine with gold to make its ore look richer than it is.

It is good to remember this lesson with many things in life, including communicable diseases. It is called “The Law of Diminishing Returns.”

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html

These are the current stats, by the CDC, of the entire outbreak. I know that someone here at FR is plotting the “actuals”, the real cases, not projections, to figure out the growth curve of the disease.

To date that rate of growth has not been extraordinary. And while still bad for West Africa, the possibility of “10,000 new cases per week” is miniscule.

If Ebola was indeed growing at an exponential rate, by now millions would have been infected, and it would have transcended the ability to count them all.

The truth is that Ebola is winding down. It just doesn’t have the right combination of things to make a gigantic plague.


13 posted on 12/15/2014 5:52:45 AM PST by yefragetuwrabrumuy ("Don't compare me to the almighty, compare me to the alternative." -Obama, 09-24-11)
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To: wtd

past a certain point (which they are close to already) they will have completely saturated all existing facilities and can handle no new cases- at which point ALL new cases are going to be like case #1 - out in the public

except there will be 10,000 of them (per week)


14 posted on 12/15/2014 6:02:41 AM PST by Mr. K (Palin/Cruz 2016)
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To: Lady Heron

With the way they are playing with the reported numbers, we do not know if that is even true.

*********************************

Ebola numbers are now like those Obamacare enrollment numbers & the unemployment rate ..... can’t believe anything any more.


15 posted on 12/15/2014 6:04:01 AM PST by Qiviut ( One of the most delightful things about a garden is the anticipation it provides. ~W.E. Johns)
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To: wtd

Yes we can! Make America "know how it feels" to be a third world country.

16 posted on 12/15/2014 6:05:56 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: grania

Grania,

I do not have answers for you. I am just mapping the reported numbers and attempting to make reasonable assumptions about where this is all headed.


17 posted on 12/15/2014 6:28:07 AM PST by TruthInThoughtWordAndDeed (Yahuah Yahusha)
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To: TruthInThoughtWordAndDeed
grania, I do not have all of the answers for you

I realize that, and I appreciate the very fine research you provide about the Ebola outbreak. The reason for questions such as these is for points of discussion and things I wonder about.

Sorry if you thought I intended to put you on the spot

grania

18 posted on 12/15/2014 6:50:33 AM PST by grania
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To: dennisw

Obama will refuse to close off travel to and from. He’s part of the Soros borderless society.


19 posted on 12/15/2014 6:52:43 AM PST by ThomasMore (Islam is the Whore of Babylon!)
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To: Lady Heron

I use a seventy percent (70%) death percentage in my internal calculations. It could be higher, and probably is, such as you have suggested at 84%. I am just being conservative.

However, infected persons do not show symptoms immediately and they to not die immediately upon becoming infected.

The death percentage follows the case count, but lags by anywhere from a few days to several weeks.

In my internal calculations, I have assumed a seventy percent (70%) death percentage will occur by sixty days from the date of infection.

If you do not take the lag into account, it appears that the death percentage is much lower than it actually is.


20 posted on 12/15/2014 7:45:13 AM PST by TruthInThoughtWordAndDeed (Yahuah Yahusha)
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