Posted on 10/12/2014 6:20:37 AM PDT by BobL
Now that it's proven that Ebola transmission doesn't necessarily respect international borders and confine itself to "those countries", perhaps it's time that paranoid types (me included) update our supplies and get ready for what may come. I'll state what I see as worst-case, and others are welcome to chime-in and comment (or contradict) what I say.
First, if the virus spreads out of control (which I consider possible, as long as it is being given civil rights), there is only one way to stop it, and that is a near-complete lock-down of the country, with only essential workers allowed out of home confinement. The country will basically look like a giant ghost town with a small number of people in space suits trying to keep order and hand out supplies to the 98% of the people that are totally unprepared. They will also try to keep operating utilities such as power, natural gas, clean water, and sewage treatment. Not much need for gasoline though as our consumption rate will drop to next to nothing (so stockpiles will last a long time for those allowed to use it).
The next question is how long will the confinement be. I suspect that the confinement will be at least 30 days (longer for people having some contact with victims), and it will take some time to clear the streets.
So, as far as disasters go, this is actually one of the easier scenarios (try thinking about a landscape covered with radioactive fallout, for example, or even no water/power and a badly damaged house after a hurricane). In this case, you may lose water/power, but not right away. As far as being prepped to go out in public (i.e., clothing, masks, etc.) or taking care of Ebola patients, that's way out of my league. Others can discuss it, but I won't try.
So, my recommendations are as follows:
WATER
1) Storing Fresh Water: Ideally, you go on stored water. It can be bottled, although my first-line method is to take a large trash can, line it with 2 heavy duty trash bags, and then fill it up about 2/3s with tap water, that's good for about 20 gallons, which or about 20 man-days if used for drinking. There are also devices that fit in bathtubs for storing water, although these are getting hard to find.
2) Purifying Other Water: As a minimum have always fresh bleach, and be sure it's really fresh, as its shelf life is only 6 months. Even if you hate Wal-Mart, that's a great place to buy it, since they have huge turnover so your bleach will be fresh. Only buy PLAIN bleach, not scented or otherwise cute, and visit the Clorox site to get instructions on using it. When used properly it will kill off the vast majority of bugs that can get you, if your water supply is not clean. Lots more can be done beyond that, but it will cost some money.
3) Rain Water Collection: If your house has gutters, then try to come up with a way to collect that water. It is usually doable, and the water may be quite yucky (especially at the beginning of a storm), but it certainly beats not having water. If you have decent purification capability, you can live on it (even bleach is probably sufficient for most rain water).
FOOD
1) I think having 60 days tucked away is a good start, with half of that being starches (rice, noodles, etc.), which cost next to nothing, and the other half being yummy stuff, being not requiring refrigeration. So canned/dried food is good, with canned food being very cheap on a per calorie basis and lasting for years. I've been eating my 5 year old cans of food that were stored without any regard to temperature, reaching well over 80F in the house for 2 summers in a row. They are well beyond their expiration date, but taste great, with only slight changes from the newer stuff.
2) Beyond the above, you can then buy perishables, frozen/refrigerated food, since you'll likely have power for much of the time. At worst the power goes out and food ends up in trash bags at the curb. And BE SURE to have a lot of heavy trash bags.
3) For cooking, if you plan to rely on starches, you really need to have a way to cook them without relying on power or natural gas. I've about lost count of my ways to do that - starting with a propane stove, propane grill, gasoline (camping) stove, second gasoline stove, butane stoves and probably some other options. Don't try to get cute with a "solar stove" or "wood stove" only - you want something easy to use, and powerful. Just be sure whatever you have can boil water efficiently and that you have enough fuel to keep going (and that can be a lot of fuel if you boil). I like gasoline because I can pull it out of my cars, if I need to.
HEATING
Heating can certainly be a challenge. Here in Houston, it actually can get (relatively) cold, dipping well into the 20s for a few days each winter and not getting much above 40 during those spells. But every region and every home is different so I won't try to give a single set of recommendations. But a few things to consider: Electric blankets can make a boatload of difference for someone trying to stretch out a tank of propane (of course you need power), likewise thermal underwear. There are actually propane heaters that operate indoors although you need to have some air ventilation to prevent Oxygen depletion (and with the depletion Carbon Monoxide will be given off - otherwise, no Carbon Monoxide). Butane is similar, but I don't know where to find a space heater rated for indoor use. Never burn gasoline/wood indoors for heating without direct venting, because Carbon Monoxide will always be given off as a product of combustion. (burning gasoline indoors for cooking - I'm not really sure there, but I'd be very careful to have lots of fresh air, at a minimum). Needless to say, a battery powered Carbon Monoxide detector is a must if you have any indoor combustion.
OTHER STUFF
Lots of other items - just think of what you normally use, and have a decent supply. Also think of what might get used more, especially things like plastic bags and have a large supply of them. Paper items are another good thing to have - if water/soap is tight, you may want to use paper plates, for example. Batteries, of course. And also consider what happens if the power goes out. Do you have a manual can opener?
So that's it for now, I'm in pretty shape with the above (actually really good shape). Even if you're not a prepper you can still do a lot of the above on a temporary basis and then slowly consume the items (like food, paper towels, etc.) and your net cost is nothing, you simply bought the stuff a bit earlier than you otherwise would have. Even with food, you don't need to buy food that requires cooking (you may not be used to it, but most canned food doesn't require any heating/cooking to be safe, and yummy)...but it will certainly cost more than starches.
Good Luck!!
Make your own bleach using Calcium Hypochlorite (pool shock). Calcium Hypochlorite has a long shelf life and one pound will make gallons of bleach.
Better than Bleach: Use Calcium Hypochlorite to Disinfect Water.
http://survivaltopics.com/better-than-bleach-use-calcium-hypochlorite-to-disinfect-water/
Preppers’ PING!!
It is your choice you can prep or you can stand around on a bridge waiting for FEMA to bring you a bottle of water, a MRE, a warm blanket and a kiss for your boo-boo and maybe you can even get your picture as you stand there on the national news.
The world is dry tinder just awaiting the right spark maybe mother nature has decided it is time to shuffle the deck.
So listen to what the bible says: A prudent man sees danger and takes refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it. NIV Proverbs 22:3
Selco covers this in this article many times people just can not except that a breakdown is occurring even as they watch it happening before their eyes. Why don’t they realize it? It’s caused by a condition called ‘Normalcy Bias’ a mental state people enter when facing a disaster.
It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. This often results in situations where people fail to adequately prepare for a disaster, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred then it never will occur. It also results in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.
A good article on ‘Normalcy Bias’ is on our own ChocChipCookies Blog The Survival Mom:
http://thesurvivalmom.com/2010/12/29/normalcy-bias/
You either prepare and stand on your own beholden to no one or you become dependent on others to provide your basic needs and become their ‘serf’. Me I don’t want to be beholden to anyone for providing what is needed for me and mine. I certainly don’t want to have to kiss some ‘gubberment’ third class bureaucratic to try and coax some help from them, I don’t want some ‘jack booted’ thug herding me in line and telling me where to stand, sit, eat or sleep. And last but not least I don’t want to be shut up in with a bunch of ‘zombies’ and have to worry about not only trying to get basic necessities but having to fight to keep what I manage to get.
Just getting started or an old hand you might find my Preparedness Manual helpful. You can download the manual at:
http://tomeaker.com/kart/Preparedness1j.pdf NOTE! THIS IS A FREE DOWNLOAD. I DO NOT MAKE ONE CENT OFF MY PREPAREDNESS MANUAL!
For those of you who haven’t started already it’s time to prepare almost past time maybe. You needed to be stocking up on food guns, ammo, basic household supplies like soap, papergoods, cleaning supplies, good sturdy clothes including extra socks, underwear and extra shoes and boots, cash (I myself have been putting up change for the past few years both for the metal content and the fact that using change places to make what purchases you can will move you down the the list of possible marks during shtf), tools, things you buy everyday start buying two and put one up.
As the LDS say “When the emergency is upon us the time for preparedness has past.”
Again I like to recomend FReeper’s ChocoChipCookie Blog The Survival Mom (Please Blog Police let this one slide!) Where you can get lots of useful information like:
http://thesurvivalmom.com/2011/11/20/8-morale-boosters-for-any-worst-case-scenario/
http://thesurvivalmom.com/2010/02/02/survival-priorities-the-rule-of-three/
And More
Also there is Ferfal’s Blog a survivor of Argentina’s first collapse:
And there is Selco’s Blog a Bosnian War survivor at:
“There is no greater disaster than to underestimate danger. Underestimation can be fatal.”
Thanks Karto, but one question. A while ago I bought some at Walmart that is 48%, and at the time I was very careful to buy what I thought was the right concentration and that it didn’t have any other cute chemicals in it. Now I see 78% as the minimum. I plan to keep it still as my backup for chemical purification, in case my brand new bottle of bleach gets too old. Any thoughts?
Honestly, if you’re just raising your preps level NOW, you’re already well behind the power curve.
We’ve just done our usual fall stock-up for the winter, as the wife hates driving in snow (and isn’t particularly good at it, either). Our actual worry is a the worse-than-usual forecast for the winter: we were snowed in for 10 days during the “Snowpocalypse” here in the DC area. . .
“Selco covers this in this article many times people just can not except that a breakdown is occurring even as they watch it happening before their eyes. Why don’t they realize it? It’s caused by a condition called ‘Normalcy Bias’ a mental state people enter when facing a disaster.”
Ebola didn’t just “appear” to the world last week, it was out there FOR YEARS, but when our, literally, MILLIONS OF PEOPLE involved with disaster planning needed to show they were ready, they were totally hopeless.
A classic case of NORMALCY BIAS.
Good analogy. Pretty much sums up what will happen if this spreads. But you need a bigger condom, one that fits over a house.
“Honestly, if you’re just raising your preps level NOW, you’re already well behind the power curve. We’ve just done our usual fall stock-up for the winter, as the wife hates driving in snow (and isn’t particularly good at it, either). Our actual worry is a the worse-than-usual forecast for the winter: we were snowed in for 10 days during the “Snowpocalypse” here in the DC area. . .”
I agree...I’m pretty-much always ready for a hurricane, and riding out 60 days of house-confinement is a walk in the park for me. But for others...it’s Katrina again.
I just checked this. I have a bottle of Clorox-brand, stamped as indicated.
The stamp reads E614077.
So, the plant is E6, the last digit of the year is 1, made on the 407th day of the year?
Close...the year is “14” and the bottle was filled on Day “077” about the middle of March. So it’s time to replace it now (while it’s still available).
That advice is ALWAYS SMART, and includes co-workers. Figure that anyone you disclose your prepping plans to will show up at your door if that day comes, just as happened on Twilight Zone.
1st Rule of Prep Club: You do not talk about Prep Club.
2nd Rule of Prep Club: You DO NOT talk about Prep Club.
3rd Rule of Prep Club: If someone says “SHTF”, do a shot.
4th Rule of Prep Club: No more than two people to a retreat; one must be a buxom blonde coed for repopulating the human race.
5th Rule of Prep Club: One BOL at a time.
6th Rule of Prep Club: No tie-dye shirts, no socks with sandals, no ponytails, no drum circles.
7th Rule of Prep Club: Prepping will go on as long as it has to.
8th Rule of Prep Club: If this is your first post to Prep Club, you HAVE to buy all other preppers a shot.
So where’s Quark’s Theorem?
There are two essential factors to consider with Ebola.
1) The timetable of the disease. If you can break its timetable, with one exception, the disease is over.
To start with, an infected person may have from 2 to 21 days before their symptoms emerge, leaning towards sooner, so practically within 4 days. So about one month is the maximum time needed for an absolute quarantine.
And a real weak point of Ebola is that it is only marginally infectious until the infected person is showing symptoms. From that point, it is about 10 days before they die. And for 5 of those days, they are probably flat on their back.
So the functional time limit for an infected person to spread the disease to other than medical people and those that dispose of their remains is just five days.
Let’s say that you are buttoned up in a safe place. Somebody pays you a visit, so you insist that they spend a week in a guest house, communicating electronically, before they meet a living person. If things are really bad, they can be your visitor for a month before you greet them.
2) The exception to the rule is physical contamination, which for Ebola can last longer than it can within a person.
Fortunately, Ebola is not a hardy virus, so can be killed with most disinfectants, and even UV light. Which means that a UV light is a very important piece of equipment.
Yup, I totally agree. Things are going to be taking a very bad turn.
It still comes down to being very healthy. The weak will die from infection.
Be sure to get rest, be hydrated, well fed, walk/run/jog to help ensure the cardio system is up to the task of being infected, and simply assume you will at some point become infected. Be prepared to handle secondary infections such as bacterial infections and the usual stuff like stuffed up noses.
It is best to buy Calcium Hypochlorite (Pool Shock) at Wal-Mart for $24 for 5 1-pound bags. It only takes a hair of the stuff to treat water. Clorox goes bad within 6 months, but this stuff is good for a long time.
Google for Calcium Hypochlorite. 1 pound treats about 10,000 gallons for drinking water. (If I remember that right!)
P.S. Calcium Hypochlorite can also be used to treat water for cleaning and wiping down surfaces. Unless you buy boatloads of cleaning supplies at a pretty significant cost, this stuff will do nicely to wipe down surfaces. Just concentrate it more than you would for drinking water. There are recipes out there for this.
My closets are full of meals like spaghetti and meat sauce, Rice and beans, beef stew, chicken and stuffing, mac and cheese, chicken noodle soup, potato cheese soup, cream of chicken, mushroom and broccoli soup base for soup or for casseroles, cookie, cake, cornbread, biscuit and pancake mixes and fruit cobbler mixes. I also dehydrate herbs from my herb garden so the food will not be bland. I make my own tomato powder, onion powder and garlic powder.
The only thing I purchase is freeze dried meats. The dehyrdtated doesn't have a long shelf life and it seems safer to leave the meat to the experts. The only special equuipment I have is a FoodSaver and I use oxygen absorbers. There is a lot of information out there on the internet on how to do this.
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