Posted on 10/04/2014 10:01:00 AM PDT by scouter
I have received a number of FReepmails asking for an update on my projections, in light of recent news. Here it is.
Please read and understand the following notes:
Scouter Ebola Projection Model Version 2.1 - Ebola Case Projections
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Projection Parameters
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Country: All Countries
Run Date/Time: 10/04/2014 at 12:32:03
Model: DTR Model
Start Date: 9/1/2014
End Date: 10/1/2014
Reported cases represent 100% of the true epidemic size
New Cases per Day at End of Period: 172
Rate of Increase per Day: 2.35%
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Weekly for the Next 8 Weeks
Date Date Cases Deaths Daily New Cases
========== ==================== ==================== ==================== ====================
10/01/2014 7,491 3,439 175 71
10/08/2014 8,838 4,058 206 95
10/15/2014 10,437 4,794 246 113
10/22/2014 12,338 5,671 292 135
10/29/2014 14,598 6,716 347 161
11/05/2014 17,287 7,961 413 192
11/12/2014 20,489 9,448 492 229
11/19/2014 24,303 11,222 587 273
End of Month for the Next Year from the End Date
Date Date Cases Deaths Daily New Cases
========== ==================== ==================== ==================== ====================
10/31/2014 15,320 7,051 277 110
11/30/2014 33,146 15,547 844 405
12/31/2014 73,924 35,305 1,893 923
01/31/2015 165,567 80,387 4,261 2,109
02/28/2015 344,116 169,366 8,892 4,453
03/31/2015 776,114 387,249 20,136 10,205
04/30/2015 1,710,309 863,619 44,533 22,805
05/31/2015 3,880,621 1,981,314 101,380 52,413
06/30/2015 8,596,752 4,431,396 225,240 117,407
07/31/2015 19,601,541 10,193,372 514,950 270,445
08/31/2015 44,788,229 23,473,373 1,179,439 623,547
09/30/2015 99,825,291 52,668,275 2,634,170 1,400,539
10/31/2015 228,894,782 121,502,640 6,051,399 3,234,010
Oh my. Prayers up for food poisoning or something similarly pedestrian.
Just for that guy only.
This could be breaking news!
Hope your wife is ok.
Can you imagine sitting on a plane with some stranger hurling in your midst, worried sick, and the CDC shows up 1.5 hours later in their bunny suits and you’re thinking, “WTH, you get protected while the rest of us sit here wondering if our will is up to date.”
What a horrible predicament, and totally preventable via stopping all movement out of W. Africa.
Uhmmmm... did you even read point #5? Or did you just look at the chart?
I think it will several weeks before we have enough data on the U.S. to be meaningful. But I update my data as new data becomes available. I'm going to leave the U.S. out of it until there has been some actual transmission that occurs here. It's true that we have a diagnosis in the U.S., but it really becomes significant when someone who has never left the U.S. becomes infected.
BTW, I don't predict. I simply project into the future based on past numbers.
Pandemic tourism. They know the welcome carpet is out and they’ll receive free medical treatment courtesy US taxpayers.
It’s the Obola airlift.
Not to mention your exposed family being put up in a large house and feted until they show symptoms.
TheUnited agent who first reported the Dalles Ebola man’s flight itinerary showed/determined his origination point - final destination. They knew he originated in Monrovia, then traveled to Brussels. Can we not stop passengers who originate in Liberia?
If you like your Ebola....
-King Barry
Praying for the health and safety of your wife and all other passengers and crew.
Do you know which airline?
Not according to Frieden about 30 minutes ago. Containing ebola only spreads it, he says.
Prayers for your wife.
Please post this in it’s own thread.
Being a flight attendant has got to be one of the scariest jobs around all of a sudden...
We can but our bureaucratic betters won’t.
Prayers for you.
It’s a United flight, according to local TV.
UA 998.
Your wife’s plane was just shown on Fox news. Prayers up for her safety and health.
It sucks sitting on the tarmack, especially when you know there’s a sick patient on board. They need to deplane these folks into a dedicated hanger so they’re more comfortable.
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