Posted on 09/08/2014 6:38:41 PM PDT by chessplayer
GENEVA/FREETOWN (Reuters) - Liberia, the country worst hit by West Africa's Ebola epidemic, should see thousands of new cases in coming weeks as the virus spreads exponentially, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Monday.
The WHO believes it will take six to nine months to contain and may infect up to 20,000 people.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
Where are all the global pandemic enthusiasts now that the global pandemic has arrived?
I wonder if that has occurred to ISIS. Surely it has. They wouldn’t use it on their own turf but send it to America?
They lost a lot of credibility by saying that the number of infections is increasing “exponentially”.
When you refuse to observe/obey the laws of quarantine...
I’ll fall back on the “wildfire” theory of epidemiology. That epidemics among humans behave more like a wildfire than normal biological curves.
The most explicit example of an exponential curve in an epidemic was with the myxoma virus, which causes myxomatosis, which was introduced into the rabbit population of Australia in the 1950s. This caused their population to drop from an estimated 600 million to around 100 million, though other estimates are as high as 96% mortality. Genetic resistance in the remaining rabbits allowed the population to recover to 200-300 million by 1991.
Humans, however, have some huge advantages that mitigate epidemics. To start with, we have recorded historical epidemics, so we have reference points of what is happening.
Second, we have some understanding of hygiene, sanitation, quarantine, communication of complex information and ideas, government, etc.
Third, even some of our ordinarily negative behavior works to our advantage: paranoia, agoraphobia (fear of crowds), assigning stigma to the sick, hypochondria, xenophobia, etc., can be lifesavers.
The wildfire theory of human epidemics is that the disease travels in an almost irrational manner. It may wipe out town ‘A’ and ‘C’, while leaving town ‘B’, in between the others, untouched.
Epidemics are also very unfair. They are deadliest at the lowest levels of society, the sick, ill, poor, uneducated and stupid. The bottom level of the pyramid. The higher you rise on the social pyramid, the fewer the casualties.
Most of the wealthy casualties are either stupid or unlucky.
I respect you and your opinions, else I wouldn't have bothered to respond. In these early stages, we *are* matching exponential growth.
The question is, how long it will take, for the factors you mentioned, to cause the growth rate to fall short of exponential.
NO cheers, unfortunately.
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