(rant: on)
The CDC is optimistically saying the “worst case” can be avoided if we just make a big enough commitment, and that we will do so.
The happy talk from the CDC is nice. We have nothing to worry about HERE.
Meanwhile, in Africa, there are precious few actual results from those “commitments” and the pandemic is growing faster than the commitments even if they are eventually honored (talk is cheap).
The public is NOT being told what happens if the commitment is too little, too late.
Here’s what is actually happening:
1. The medical infrastructure could not handle this in the first place, and much of that infrastructure has already crumbled.
2. The disease is expanding so quickly that basic services will soon begin to fail as well.
So unless we can turn this around, right now, here’s what will happen:
A. What’s left of the medical infrastructure, already ineffective, will collapse. The pandemic will accelerate even more.
B. As the pandemic accelerates, the people needed to keep basic infrastructure going will die. Water, sewer, and electricity will begin to fail. Food distribution will cease.
C. When this begins to happen the population will panic. As many as possible will flee. The process of overall collapse will accelerate.
D. Most of those who are unable to flee will eventually die. Some of those who are able to flee will carry the disease with them.
ALL OF THIS IS EASILY PREDICTABLE.
AT THIS POINT IT IS ALSO THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME.
Our “leaders” are full of happy talk about how much they plan to do. Our media glibly repeats the happy talk. Our public is asleep.
(rant: off)
I partly agree. I disagree that anything we can do now will make a difference in the outcome. IMO this outcome became inevitable weeks ago, perhaps several months ago. Liberia's culture and ensuing lack of transportation infrastructure made the place impervious to any major outside intervention.
The current Ebola outbreak might have been snuffed early, i.e., before the middle of July. That didn't happen and a worst case outcome, for Liberia, was set in a frighteningly small time period afterwards.
"A. What’s left of the medical infrastructure, already ineffective, will collapse. The pandemic will accelerate even more.B. As the pandemic accelerates, the people needed to keep basic infrastructure going will die. Water, sewer, and electricity will begin to fail. Food distribution will cease.
C. When this begins to happen the population will panic. As many as possible will flee. The process of overall collapse will accelerate.
D. Most of those who are unable to flee will eventually die. Some of those who are able to flee will carry the disease with them."