Posted on 08/10/2014 12:46:23 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe
I have spent a little time compiling links to threads about the Ebola outbreak in the interest of having all the links in one thread for future reference.
Please add links to new threads and articles of interest as the situation develops.
Thank You all for you participation.
Odd. I was in the hospital last week for a minor procedure. They had an over-sized bathroom for me to change out of my street clothes. I had no-doubt read some Ebola threads on FR while out in the waiting room.
And here I was, changing clothes while a uncovered toilet leered at me. I imagine the spray/mist of the thing could easily reach the three feet to where I sat. And for certain the 1.5 feet to the hot-water handle on the sink.
Yes, I do turn off the water and open the door with a paper towel.
I do, too. I have for quite a while- even if there is no wastebasket by the door. I practice my long shot then. ;^)
From Dr. Niman of Rhiza Labs FluTracker board—
Liberia has reported new HCW Ebola infections virtually every day. In the September 22 report, 136 of these cases were displayed by job title.
http://fluboard.rhizalabs.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=12389
Oh, my.
That “pissinontheroses” blog is, shall I say, extremely sensationalist, and very lacking in any actual experimentally observed/measured data.
Beginning with using a reference about influenza, which is drastically different from Ebola in very many ways, the blog just goes downhill from there. None of the publications by my USAMRIID colleagues state that the aerosol stability of Ebola is comparable to that of influenza. The closest they come to saying anything of the sort is contained in the phrase “However, aerosol transmission is thought to be possible and may occur in conditions of lower temperature and humidity which may not have been factors in outbreaks in warmer climates [13]” in the paper by Zumbrun et al. Reference 13, in turn, is a 1995 paper by Johnson et al. describing infecting monkeys with artificially generated aerosols. That only means that monkeys can be infected with aerosols, not that any animal or human naturally generates aerosols (the epi evidence says they don’t). The next sentence in Zumbrun et al.’s paper is “At the very least, the potential exists for aerosol
transmission, given that virus is detected in bodily secretions, the pulmonary alveolar interstitial cells, and within lung spaces [14].” In that one, reference 14 refers to a 1996 paper by Jahrling et al. describing the experimental infection of cynomolgus monkeys with Ebola Reston. Ebola Reston is NOT the same as Ebola Zaire—it is not known to cause symptomatic infection in humans, and its pathology differs among different primate species.
I don’t really want to spend more time on that sensationalist blog, but I must address this: “The next time some expert pushes the Ebola mutation risk ask them to specify exactly what mutations would be required to do as they claim. When they refuse, ask why experts spelled out the mutation steps of Avian Influenza and why they won’t for Ebola. The answer is: Ebola can already infect pretty much every cell in the human respiratory system.” A quick reason why the experts “refuse” to specify which mutations would be required to make Ebola airborne is that the experiments have not been done (and probably won’t be). We have no information with which to identify those mutations, and no evidence that Ebola can mutate to a naturally aerosolizable form while remaining otherwise viable. In any case, there is no evolutionary advantage to the virus to change its mode of transmission, it transmits just fine the way it is. And there is no evidence that Ebola (of any type, not just Zaire) shows tropism for any human respiratory cell type. Dang, I’m too tired to try to translate all that into everyday language...
I should point out that virologists pretty much all agree that no virus, ever, has been known to change its mode of transmission. If Ebola were to manage to do that, it would be a historic event.
Watching Congressional Seminar on Ebola Outbreak and Tom Friedan is speaking and said that CDC has a field team right now in Cote d’Ivoire looking at potential cases there.
That would be.. not good.
http://www.c-span.org/video/?321685-1/congressional-seminar-ebola-outbreak-west-africa
The problem with UV light as a disinfectant is the ability to shine it with enough illumination on all the waste matter is a sewer stream.
In a wastewater treatment plant, UV isn’t a nontypical disinfection process, but since solid particles in the wastewater stream provide shadows in the fluid flow, the UV process isn’t applied until the solids are removed from the fluid and turbidity is nearly absent.
In other words, from the time it leaves the infected body, till after it’s treated to about tertiary quality levels, the UV treatment isn’t practical. Even at tertiary levels, some algae and failed treatment systems don’t have checks and recircuiting to treat it until the water has been cleared absolutely for a rigorous UV treatment.
Since the portions infected are cells, they tend to flow with the fluids downhill in the sewer collection systems, but lift stations, pumps, manholes, and the pipes themselves would technically become infected.
These collection systems are not designed for full immersion, except for force mains, so they would all pass hazardous waste until replaced or fully cleansed. (It would be cheaper to seal them all and replace the entire system with new, until a cure is found, for certainty.
All the studies I’ve seen so far, (not many) provide some evidence that dried wastewater of previously infected fluids, can still contain infectious material in dark areas at ambient temperatures. Some cases where this has been discovered have been as long as 51 days after exposure in ambient, dark, partially washed conditions.
The evidence I’ve seen indicates past outbreaks might have burned out in rural areas, and perhaps the right circumstance occurred even years later for the same virons to then enter another host by chance,..beginning another infection process. No proof of this, but then again nothing proving this isn’t the case.
Incineration, as in the same process to cremate a body, or chemical disinfection, by longtime exposure and fully mixing the solution to disinfect ALL cells infected in the wastewater, or UV, by first filtering the wastewater in a multistage process until clear, without shadows by particulate matter, then intense UV disinfection, are all possible.
One problem with chemical treatments are the hazardous byproducts, which also cause environmental health problems.
I'm not talking about UV as a general means of sterilizing Ebola virus. I'm talking about it as a specific means of sterilizing Ebola in FOMITES, i.e., of reducing the danger of transmitting Ebola virus from inert surfaces to humans. Here that means disinfecting buildings.
And I agree that UV can't penetrate the surface of clots of relatively recent Ebola-laden secretions such as patches of blood, clots of mucus, with significant viral loads.
But UV can nail the lesser viral loads of smaller drying particles of secretions by Eobla victims, particularly those fixed in place on fomites and so subject to UV radiation from portable UV sources.
Decent paper. Consistent with Metcalf & Eddy.
IMHO, he disinfection of the filovirus will focus on the 70nm x 760nm filtration or its chemical destruction/incineration.
Source control is simplest to protect existing infrastructure, but the most costly, ...but would have to rely on economies of scale for efficient implementation.
Probably need a water trap or plumbing fixture component able to filter/disinfect the wastewater stream.
Such a system would be very costly to implement, but would make wastewater treatment at the centralized source much more efficient,...perhaps too efficient, i.e. not enough food for the biologicals to feed.
It might be better addressed as an Ezekiel 7/8 problem and let God handle it.
UV works. Problem then becomes the delivery method to access all infected areas.
Example of a handrail on a stairway. If the fomite is placed from the edge of the fingertips of the infected person onto the outside diameter of the rail closest a stairwell wall, with only 1-3 inches of clearance, how does one simply expose those surfaces to UV. Same for splattered surfaces (underside rim of a toilet, to access all 70nm particles, and expose for an adequate time with adequate enegry to disinfect.
Even if we could manufacture a commutator/disinfection unit, connected just below a fixture by the water trap for $50/unit, the disinfection byproducts (DBP) would likely change the chemistry of the centralized wastewater treatment processes.
Going back over Chap 12 of Metcalf & Eddy.
Probably would increase water supply demand. So much for low flow toilets/fixtures.
Functional decomposition is our friend. Trying to think through for field effects, which could be easily implemented in a low tech fashion.
Hygiene is one feature, which many people can fastidiously grasp with amazing ease, even amongst the impoverished. Powerful incentive for good hygiene.
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/134771/1/roadmapsitrep_24Sept2014_eng.pdf?ua=1
OVERVIEW
The total number of probable, confirmed and suspected cases (see Annex 1) in the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa was 6263, with 2917 deaths, as at the end of 21 September 2014. Countries affected are Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone. Figure 1 shows the total number of confirmed and probable cases by country that have been reported in each epidemiological week between the start of 30 December 2013 (start of epidemiological week 1) and the end of 21 September 2014 (epidemiological week 38: 15 to 21 September), and indicates a fall in the number of reported new cases compared with the previous two weeks. However, for reasons given below, this is unlikely to be an accurate reflection of the reality. The epidemic of EVD in West Africa is still increasing.
There is a huge spike in reported cases from the Sierra Leone lock down and a notable fall in Ebola case data reporting from Monrovia Liberia, despite credible media reports of the situation there getting worse.
I am getting the distinct impression of the WHO playing the role of Kevin Bacon at the End of the ANIMAL HOUSE movie —
“Don't Panic, All is Well!!”
...with roughly the same level of effectiveness.
The Ebola case load in West Africa is increasing exponentially and the world health response is still increasing linearly.
The collapse of West African civilian infrastructure via Ebola casualties will be well underway when the 3,000 US Army staff are in place in Liberia in late October 2014.
Cases and deaths found during
the three-day house-to-house Ebola sensitization campaign, which came to an end on 21 September,
are not yet included in official data.
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/134771/1/roadmapsitrep_24Sept2014_eng.pdf?ua=1
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The number should spike upward even more after those case and death counts are added to the record. There is another “lockdown” for additional communities and tribal areas going on.
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