By 2034, America will be on the other side of a great Crisis which has now only dimly shown its true nature. We will be then about 10 years into a High, an era whose nature will be something like it was in America in 1955: a postwar boom, an "era of good feelings." People will by busy building new lives, making babies, and generally trying to forget the unpleasant business of the last few years, a Crisis and War on which so many spent their lives, or had them taken from them in a flash.
As a result of the Crisis, I suspect that America will be broken up into two or more regional countries, at least one of which will still be dying from the radiation left by multiple nuclear strikes. At least one of the regional countries will be a fascist dictatorship. At least one of them will have returned to the pre-16th Amendment Constitution.
A combination of happy and grim: that's how I see America in 2034. We cannot now imagine the changes in American society that will come, just like those in 1955 could not have imagined them in 1935.
If you want more, read the book "The Fourth Turning," although the thoughts above are my own.
Your prediction is closest to mine.
I expect that there are two choices:
(1) we will be a single poor totalitarian country, whether national socialist, soviet socialist, or another indistinguishable brand of totalitarian socialism and all individual rights will be dead, or
(2) more than half of the United States will be a free and prosperous post-CWII country with far more respect for the Bill of Rights (and especially for the Second Amendment) than even the most conservative and patriotic states have today. In this scenario, any states that are not free and prosperous will be separate from the real United States (regardless of which half keeps that name) and suffering from the poverty that they think is cause by bitter clingers in the free states, but that sensible people know is caused by their socialist policies.