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To: jackmercer
RealClearPolitics threw out any polls they saw as from “biased” sources without looking at their methodologies. DailyKos (Obama +2) had incredibly good methodology and will go down as the best or nearly the best poll of Nov. 2012. But the people running RealClearPolitics are conservative, and I love that about them, but you don’t bring your ideology into the scientific realm....period.

Now you are being silly. RCP does not include partisan sponsored polls, period. They included PPP polls - but not ones which were paid for by partisan groups like Kos. RCP similarly did not include polls paid for by GOP campaigns, superpacs, campaign internal polls, etc. The decision to exclude was provided uniformly.

As far as setting party ID in a poll - ever look at the polls from 1996, which had Clinton leading Dole by 25 points? Zogby made a name for himself because he weighted to party id, and nailed the final result, while others were way off. The thing is, you better be right if you're going to do it.

You are also wrong when you claim Gallup weights by party id... It never has. The reason they were off is because they projected the electorate to be 76% white.

Finally, what do you think would have been accomplished by having everyone shout "the polls are right! We are going to lose!" The net result would have probably depressed turnout enough to cost the House.

181 posted on 11/09/2012 12:52:59 AM PST by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

RCP is wrong to do that. They throw out polls that are PAID FOR by partisan groups, not performed by partisan groups. If the pollsters get it wrong, those partisan groups don’t call them back in the future. The incentive structure is obvious that they want to get it right...for money, and should not be discounted.

But then RCP goes and includes Rasmussen and Gallup who were the outliers since the summer and just chucked em on in there without questioning methodology, weighting, demographics, nothing. That’s why although RCP did well with its final average, the averages and trends from the summer through October for states weren’t as good as 538, princeton, etc.

On the other end of the spectrum, you have HuffingtonPost who did the exact opposite of RCP but got the same results. They included ALL the polls, again like RCP, without questioning a thing and got the same results as RCP, good but mediocre compared to the mathematicians that had models.

The model builders used almost all the polls but was sure to weigh the polls in their equations based on lots of factors and that is where the magic lies.


182 posted on 11/09/2012 7:19:52 AM PST by jackmercer
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