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Oh my gosh! We’re doomed!
I guess Rats +11 is what we’re looking at for this election, because by golly that’s what CNN has, and they are the experts!
Would you like to buy some ocean front property in New Jersey?”
Actually no, NBC/WSJ has Dems +2 and I think it will be right around +2 to +3 Dems based on the consistency of 12 major national polls saying similar things.
I have completely removed emotion and done my best to remove all personal bias as I plug the data into various regression analyses...and this looks just like 2004 but with Obama in Bush’s position.
If it’s +2 or +3 Rats, then we are going to win. Absolutely no question in my mind. That is significantly less than what the models for most polls have been at.
You are in error about what most polls are sampling at. Most polls have been at +8 Rats, which is ridiculous.
So based upon what you’re telling me would be the sample, it should be a +5-6 Romney win. But I am predicting +4.