I would expect inflation to run about 4% per year (Historical average).
Consistant with this, see the excerpt from the LIPA report below. Over a 5 year period, electric prices rose 4.2%/year.
From the LIPA Report 12 12 05
LIPAs Yearly Average Price Increases
Year
Average Price
Increase
1999 to 2000 0.7%
2000 to 2001 2.3%
2001 to 2002 1.8%
2002 to 2003 5.9%
2003 to 2004 10.3%
Source: U.S. Department of Energy,
Energy Information Administration
So, assuming a uniform 4% increase in price/year...
By the end of the contract, you will be selling your electricity for $0.22 and having to buy electricity for $0.34 - a deficit of $0.12.
So while today’s price difference looks great, the chances of it being swiftly erased are very good.
You should work to get an escalation clause put into the contract for rise in prices. Otherwise you will be stuck in a very sour deal in about ten years.
Year Sell Buy Difference
1 $0.22 $0.16 $0.06
2 $0.22 $0.17 $0.05
3 $0.22 $0.17 $0.05
4 $0.22 $0.18 $0.04
5 $0.22 $0.19 $0.03
6 $0.22 $0.19 $0.03
7 $0.22 $0.20 $0.02
8 $0.22 $0.21 $0.01
9 $0.22 $0.22 $0.00
10 $0.22 $0.23 -$0.01
11 $0.22 $0.24 -$0.02
12 $0.22 $0.25 -$0.03
13 $0.22 $0.26 -$0.04
14 $0.22 $0.27 -$0.05
15 $0.22 $0.28 -$0.06
16 $0.22 $0.29 -$0.07
17 $0.22 $0.30 -$0.08
18 $0.22 $0.31 -$0.09
19 $0.22 $0.32 -$0.10
20 $0.22 $0.34 -$0.12
I think solar power is a good investment, under two conditions:
a. you are in an area with lots of sun. The more sunshine, the more power is produced.
b. You can use the power as it is produced. If you cannot use it all, the unused power is essentially wasted as we are not at a point with very good storage technology yet.
Solar panels optimal life span is about 20 years, with usuable lifespan being upwards of 30-35 years.
So the delta between .16 and .22 (even in the short term) is being paid for by whom? The rest of the rate payers I would guess. The entire solar power/green energy deal is a scam.
I won’t mention the agency by name, but there was a solar panel project [federally funded] here in Texas that was supposed to supply power to several buildings. Yes, we get a LOT of sun here, but the panels were installed flat instead of at an angle facing south. It makes ZERO electricity. Got some nice covered parking garages now.